China out-trains the US in STEM by sheer volume. He cites over 3.5 million Chinese STEM graduates a year, more than four times the US figure; 2 million in science and engineering in 2020; 1.4 million engineering graduates in 2021, six times the US. He also says a Chinese eighth grader's math matches an American high-school senior's, and puts China's average work week at 48 hours against 36.4 in the US.
America still leads because it imports talent and rewards dissent. He gives three reasons: the US takes in about 100,000 of the world's best STEM graduates each year, still has the best universities (the Chinese still send students there), and its R&D market pays for revolutionary ideas. He argues innovation requires questioning authority, which an authoritarian system suppresses.
China's own landmark skyscrapers show it trusts Western quality. He says the Shanghai Tower, China's tallest building, was designed by the American firm Gensler, as were its second, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh and tenth tallest. He reads this as China relying on Western firms for its symbols of prominence.
He warns the US edge may not last. His opinion is that US public education is poor and that a religious movement is "keeping students dumb" in Republican-leaning states, citing science denial on evolution, climate change and vaccines, which he says China's system does not tolerate.
GeoHussareconomy headed into a new supercycle in 2025? #econ #inflation #global #interestrates #finance
Economists foresee a US supercycle with growth and higher inflation. He relays unnamed economists' claim that a sustained expansion lasting longer than a normal business cycle may be coming, making the last 15 years look "boring": strong GDP growth and high employment, but also higher oil, gas and commodity prices and higher inflation. Their prediction is that interest rates will not fall below roughly 3–3.5%, amid instability driven by Russia and the Middle East.
He expects infrastructure spending to be justified as national security. His own guess, by analogy to the 1950s, when record infrastructure funding was won on national-security grounds, is that industrial manufacturing and infrastructure will be increasingly tied to security interests, as with the CHIPS Act and the domestic chipmaking push.
Germany is Europe's most productive manufacturer per head. He calls it the world's fourth-largest economy and fourth-largest manufacturer, with about $110,000 of manufacturing output per person versus $8,000 for the US, $6,500 for Japan and $3,100 for China, whose flat output he calls a bad sign.
Germany generates far more GDP than its population or resources suggest. Per his chart, it produces 22% of the whole continent's GDP with 15.25% of the population and 5% of natural resources, while Russia, with over a quarter of the population and half the resources, contributes 8.7%. The clip cuts off as he turns to Germany's troubles.
GeoHussar#greenscreen #Germany steers the western #european economy. And its in trouble
Germany is Europe's most productive manufacturer per head. He calls it the world's fourth-largest economy and fourth-largest manufacturer, with about $110,000 of manufacturing output per person versus $8,000 for the US, $6,500 for Japan and $3,100 for China. Per his chart it produces 22% of the continent's GDP with 15.25% of the population and 5% of resources; Russia, with over a quarter of the population and half the resources, contributes 8.7%.
The German economy has stagnated and may enter recession. He puts GDP at about $4.45 trillion, stagnant or contracting since COVID, and says German economists expect a contraction by year-end; two consecutive quarterly contractions would mean recession.
Germany's fiscal position is sounder than America's. He cites debt-to-GDP of 63.6%, far less COVID-era money printing than the US, and inflation at 1.6%, though he warns a deeper downturn could tip it into deflation.
Chinese competition, weak demand, energy and demographics are the drags. He names cheap Chinese goods flooding markets, weak global demand hitting an economy he says is 20% manufacturing, energy disruption from over-reliance on Russian oil and gas after the war, and Europe-wide population decline.
Some economists expect a German recovery in 2025. He relays this forecast and infers that a German recovery would lift the whole EU, while leaving the outcome open.
The US Navy can now reload missiles at sea. He reports a tested at-sea missile reload, done in sea state 4 (6-foot seas, 20 mph winds), handling a 25-foot missile canister. Previously ships out of missiles had to return to port, sometimes thousands of miles away, since side-by-side replenishment covered only food and fuel. The clip ends mid-sentence.
GeoHussarThe #usnavy just picked up a new trick that terrifies #russia #china #iran and their buddies #navy
The US Navy can now reload missiles at sea in a combat zone. He reports a successful test in sea state 4 (6-foot seas, 20 mph winds) with a 25-foot missile canister. Previously ships out of missiles had to return to port, sometimes thousands of miles away; side-by-side replenishment covered only food and fuel.
Houthi attacks revived a 1990s concept that had been shelved. He says the idea was tried in the 1990s and dropped for lack of demand, then made top priority on January 1 after Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. The Navy says fleet-wide rollout comes by 2027; he expects earlier, arguing its estimates are usually conservative.
He argues sustained fire undercuts China and the Houthis. In a Taiwan scenario, destroyers could keep firing without returning to ports in Japan or South Korea, and the Houthis could no longer wait out ships' resupply trips from their bunkers. He reads this as leaving Iran unable to cover its proxy.
US logistics, not parades, is the real deterrent. He contrasts Russian, Chinese and Iranian military parades with quiet US logistics, claiming those three have never sustained overseas deployments, while the US has moved 200,000–500,000 troops 7,000–8,000 miles within weeks and kept them supplied for years.
A $70 billion deposit outflow from US banks is not alarming. He sets it against about $18 trillion in total deposits (around 65% of a roughly $29 trillion GDP, by his figures), which have risen steeply since the late 1990s despite poor interest rates. He argues outflows can be good news, signalling people are spending or investing.
Deposit surges signal fear, not health. He points to the US personal savings rate: low in 2005–06 amid overconfidence, jumping when the recession hit, and spiking again in 2021 during COVID shutdowns. He disputes claims that household savings are at record lows, saying his chart of savings versus GDP shows average levels.
China's swelling deposits reflect deflation and consumer caution. He says Chinese household deposits have climbed steadily since 2018, quoting an unnamed article calling this bad news that signals consumer caution as the recovery loses momentum. He puts household plus corporate deposits at more than double China's GDP and blames deflation, which makes people hoard cash expecting lower prices and leaves all but the wealthy losing out.
BRICS Pay is a SWIFT alternative, not a BRICS currency. He reports a blockchain-based payment system test-launched at a Moscow business forum on October 17, open to 159 participants and running on the members' native currencies. Attendees got cards loaded with 500 rubles, about $5 at roughly 100 rubles to the dollar. He notes the dollar index held at about 103 that day.
Indian immigrants have propped up US science for decades. He cites their top income among US nationalities and STEM contribution: the US produces about 35,000 scientists a year on its own, India 200,000–300,000 science graduates and China 500,000–1 million, while the US attracts 15,000–22,000 of the world's best scientists annually.
US debt should be judged by interest cost relative to GDP. Relaying economist Christopher Clarke, he puts debt at $35 trillion against $29 trillion annual GDP and interest at about $1 trillion a year. Measured that way the burden is 2.37% of GDP, which he says is lower than in the 1980s.
GeoHussar#greenscreen an actual #economist @Christopher Clarke gave a breakdown of our #Debt
US debt should be judged by interest cost relative to GDP. Relaying economist Christopher Clarke, he puts debt at $35 trillion against $29 trillion GDP and interest at about $1 trillion a year, or 2.37% of GDP, lower than in the 1980s and 1990s. Clarke warns it could exceed those levels depending on who is elected.
Projected deficits are far larger under Trump than Harris. He cites expected deficits of $1.2 trillion under Harris, with expanded child tax credits and the corporate rate restored to 28%, versus $5.8 trillion under Trump with broad tax cuts. He notes 2020 brought the largest deficit ever and deficit-to-GDP is trending up.
He blames Trump's tax cuts for much of the 2020 spike. His reading is that the cut from 35% to 21% (which he describes as for the top 1%) forced several hundred billion dollars of borrowing on top of COVID. He asserts that it is always Democrats who reduce the deficit.
Nigeria has the fundamentals to be a leading economy. He cites 85 of Africa's 618 tech hubs, over 40 in Lagos, the only African city in the global top 100 startup ecosystems. Its population is 234 million, 60% under 25, with a birth rate of 33 per 1,000. It is Africa's largest oil producer; he says sixth-largest exporter, possibly fourth or fifth with more infrastructure.
Connectivity is the missing piece, per the digital-economy minister. Interviewing Dr Bosun Tijani at a UN summit, he asked what would most speed progress; the answer was fiber-optic connectivity and AI access. Nigeria has about 35,000 km of fiber, needs at least 125,000, and has 90,000 km due soon; $2 billion was secured this year to link 774 local government offices.
He predicts an African renaissance led by Nigeria. This is his own forecast, building on an earlier post where he argued something was holding Nigeria back. He notes a rice and grain shortage that he says the Feed the Future initiative is making progress on.
GeoHussarForeign adversaries are trying to make you doubt our elections. Don't let them win
Russia and Iran seek to erode American trust in elections. He argues adversaries are running a misinformation campaign to defeat the US from within by convincing voters their vote does not matter and the system is corrupt. He counters that security measures operate before, during and after elections, and urges viewers to contact their local election official via a .gov website or tour their office.
A fellow creator argues the US has chosen inflation over austerity. He relays Financial Boffins' view that America will keep printing money rather than cut spending, devaluing the dollar long term, with a crisis nearer 2040 than now. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and interest payments are all treated as untouchable, and the path was set in 2008.
That forecast assumes a linear path history rarely follows. He counters that resets or a deficit-balancing president, as Clinton did in the 1990s, usually intervene. The US debt rose about 1,000% around World War II, from roughly $29 billion to $330 billion at 120% of GDP, yet growth from 1942 to the early 1970s paid it off.
Infrastructure investment could avert the outcome. His opinion is that Biden's $1.2 trillion-plus infrastructure spending will grow GDP, since infrastructure carries a multiplier of up to three. He also cites the 1971 end of the gold standard and the 1974 petrodollar deal with Saudi Arabia, and urges voting for the party that invests in ordinary people.
GeoHussarhas #america chosen #hyperinflation over deflation ? @Financial Boffins made a great post about this
A fellow creator argues the US has chosen inflation over austerity. He relays Financial Boffins' view that America will keep printing money rather than cut spending and debt, devaluing the dollar long term, with the crisis nearer 2040 than now. He finds the reasoning sound given CPI growth since the 1970s, but says it assumes a linear path that rarely holds for generations. The clip ends there.
Sheinbaum's election has erased the peso's gains. He says the peso has given back all its gains against the dollar since early 2023. He attributes this to the election of Claudia Sheinbaum, whose leftist policies he expects to run against US interests; the clip cuts off mid-sentence.
China is printing money at its fastest since the pandemic. He says China tripled its money supply over ten years while the US doubled. The central bank is making Treasury bond purchases unseen in nearly 20 years, cutting rates, lending for stock buybacks, and is accused of printing money to prop up the stock market.
China is sliding toward deflation. He shows inflation hovering just above zero and producer prices down at -2.8%, a predictor of further deflation he links to depression risk. The currency is falling too low even for the People's Bank of China's comfort, yet goods are getting expensive for mainland consumers.
Further easing could worsen the currency problem. He says quantitative easing could release another 10 trillion yuan (about $1.37 trillion), which might ease deflation but crash the currency further. That would hurt the world's second-largest importer.
Only America can rescue China. Russia cannot help, he argues, since its oil revenues have fallen 30% since June with oil near $70. He concludes the US is the only country China can turn to, an assertion he does not develop further.
GeoHussar#China central bank hasnt printed money like this in a while
China is printing money at its fastest since the pandemic. He says its central bank has printed far more than the US: over the past ten years the US doubled its money supply, which he calls unsafe, while China tripled its own.
US exports have recovered from COVID faster than China's. He asks whether the US will retake the top exporter spot from China, pointing to a chart showing a steeper US recovery slope after COVID hit both countries. The clip ends before he answers.
Foreign misinformation has succeeded in eroding Americans' trust in government. The speaker calls Iran and Russia's campaign a "major victory" against the United States, and argues that it coincides with and reinforces what Trump's side of the GOP is saying. The title hedges the GOP's role as "possibly unintentional".
US oil exports are higher now than in Trump's final year. He answers Dennis Quaid's claim that America was energy independent and exporting oil under Trump but now begs Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, using charts that show exports up about 20%. He also contrasts Russian production and US imports of Russian oil across administrations.
Russia's oil windfall came from the OPEC 2020 deal. Prices reached $120 a barrel because of Trump's OPEC 2020 deal, he argues, so Russia earned more despite cutting output by 10%. Prices fell once the deal ended.
Biden asked the Saudis once, to end OPEC 2020. By contrast, he says Trump spent his whole administration pressing Saudi Arabia for more oil and also authorized a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Newsom is attacking high gas prices his own legislation caused. He mocks the special legislative session and Newsom's claim that oil companies charge Californians more, contrasting about $2.50 gas in Oklahoma with about $5 in California.
Newsom's refinery storage mandate would take a decade to build. California uses over 900,000 barrels of gasoline a day. Catherine Boyd of the Western States Petroleum Association put each tank at $35 million, with land, environmental studies and permits taking about 10 years, by which time Newsom says gas cars will be gone.
Utilities raise rates to fund capital spending, not fuel costs. His example is Alliant Energy in Iowa, serving about half a million people, which seeks higher natural gas rates despite near two-year historic-low gas prices. It earned $700 million last year, about $1,400 per customer, raised dividends 21 straight years, and wants grid, line-burial and renewables costs covered.
Taxpayers already subsidize the same buildout. He cites federal data as of 2022, before the full effect of the Inflation Reduction Act, showing renewables get over seven times oil and gas subsidies. The second-largest energy subsidy is end-use help with utility bills. He expects bills to keep rising.