investing

Scott and Tony, with Tom away and guest Liz joining for the second half, read the day as a real, orderly selloff concentrated in the NASDAQ. Over the show the NASDAQ went from down 500 to down about 1,400 (roughly 5.5%) and E-mini S&Ps fell as much as 240 (about 3%). The VIX rose from near 18 to as high as 28 before easing under 23. Their prescription was not to hide. Elevated volatility is opportunity, so sell premium or put on spreads now, but keep unit size where it was, defend losers early, and never double up on the belief that the market has to rally. They split on whether the move counts as a crash, and agreed it is not a bottom.

The open. The hosts call it a two-sided market with the NASDAQ "on a death spiral". The losses came on the same day as rallies elsewhere: the Dow and Russell were initially up and Apple was a contrarian gainer. Nvidia broke $200 and reached about $182, AMD fell $62, Micron traded near $690–730 against a high near $1,250, and Tesla fell to about $350. One host, already short the NASDAQ, kept adding and covering into rallies. Oil near $89, down from about $105, is read as fear coming off the table on the geopolitical side. The hosts say they are surprised bonds haven't sold off.

Question of the day: news. Asked whether following news helps retail traders, one host wants all the information he can get but avoids social media rabbit holes. He sits between Tom, who says news doesn't matter, and the other host. He argues consequences have been building: rates higher, oil elevated, and tariffs that one politician claims cost constituents $4,500 a year, against the $1,500–2,000 he has heard elsewhere. Both expect financial media to blame newly elected anti-data-center governors, and dismiss that because they take office in January. Their own explanation is that the stocks were overcooked, and price is not mean-reverting.

Viewer mechanics. Monthly strikes are sparser than weeklies because market makers add strikes when demand appears. One host says he has pushed exchanges to make strikes closing-only if no opening trade comes within a day or two, calling illiquid options "vehicles for fraud". For two short December QQQ 670 puts with QQQ at 668, the advice is to roll down or sell one 20–30 delta call. A short put that grows from about 20 delta to 35–40 needs defending, and the 21-day exit is a guideline for winners only. A viewer who quit their job to trade is told to allow about a year so they see both up and down markets. On futures, one host sizes an E-mini as about $25,000–26,000 of exposure at 5–10% of the account, giving $50,000 minimum ($25,000 for a micro), and the other would double that. Rolling one side of an iron condor to another expiration loses the single-cycle margin benefit. Equity pre- and post-market trades are real, and a broker that blocks them should be replaced.

Tony's trades. These were placed the day before and were mostly defined risk. One exception is a naked short put on a roughly $50 stock with an IV rank of 79, down 10 cents. An unfilled trade needing $2,300 of buying power would have been down $37.

Liz on the tape. Liz argues new traders feel this as worse than it is, since the S&P has only given back the summer. The hosts counter that individual names are down 30–50%. On why it is hard to get short in a selloff, they say traders are conditioned to expect snapback rallies and feel they are selling into the hole. They read a rising VIX on a down day as the market "believing" the move. One host warns that his old clearing firm, Apex, raised requirements after five consecutive VIX closes above 25 and immediately above 30. Naked short options then cost more to hold.

Gold and the zebra. Liz treats gold and silver as an investment rather than a trade. She automatically buys small amounts of GLD and SLV, about half a percent of her account each, and separately sells puts as trades. In an IRA she prefers a zebra to a poor man's covered call: sell one 50 delta call and buy two 70 delta calls, at roughly 10–15% of the capital the stock would cost, then sell a call against it.

Crash or not. One host calls the move too orderly to be a crash, putting the threshold at S&Ps down 400–500 and the NASDAQ below 26,000. That is his side of a standing bet whose other side is new highs near 31,600. Liz and the other host argue that wiping out a year in a month is a crash. Supporting the bear case, one host cites FINRA margin debt at record highs, about $1.2 trillion, back in August. Viewer polls: 63% say QQQ won't make new highs this year, and 55% say this is not the beginning of a crash.

Stock ideas. For Nvidia, December 170 puts were about $9 (about 30 delta) and 160 puts about $6 (23 delta). Liz prefers jade lizards to strangles in case the market rubber-bands upward. The hosts call Nvidia safer than AMD or Micron. They defend short selling as necessary for rational prices and warn against shorting low-float names. For a Dell strangle with the puts in the money and the stock about $320, they lean toward covering all or part. The hosts' pitch occupied one segment: Liz and Jenny's Level Up show launching on the Cboe floor on December 1, and the One Lucky Dog app awaiting Apple approval.

Close. One host says he raised size for the first time in the decline, from about 30% to 60% of normal. Another says to widen spreads and move them closer to the money rather than add units. Their advice to someone uncomfortable is to close everything, because the market will still be there. A position the market forces you to adjust is, they say, the message to size smaller.

Scott and Tony, with Tom phoning in from Austin, spent the day after the election arguing that the overnight whipsaw proved nobody knows anything. Under the index rally they saw a market that was still selling AI and data-center names hard. Their advice was to trade small and diversified across strategies, let the market's verdict on deals and earnings override the headline numbers, and treat earnings trades as binary bets to close afterwards. They made a standing bet on where the NASDAQ goes next: one host takes 26,000 and the other new highs near 31,600.

The overnight whipsaw. E-mini S&Ps fell more than 100 and the NASDAQ about 500 overnight, touching the NASDAQ's August lows. They then opened up roughly 100 and 400, with the Dow up about 1,000–1,300 and gold up about $100. One host, short NASDAQ futures, says the drop looked like "the end of the world" and he could not buy. The other bought E-minis unchanged and scratched them about 50 cents worse after watching them drop. A viewer poll found 72% did not buy the lows. AMD traded up to about $530 after earnings and then turned negative. The hosts tie Tesla and SpaceX weakness to Musk facing a Democratic Congress after spending nearly $500 million on the race.

Trading journals. Neither host has kept a journal. One thinks it helps visual learners see their mistakes. The other argues that a covered-call writer in a rising market will mistake the market's help for skill, and warns against using a journal to cherry-pick.

Viewer mechanics. For a $50,000 account, they recommend strategy diversification over only iron condors, such as a wide iron condor as a synthetic strangle on cheaper stocks. A viewer short a December gold strangle at 3,500/4,800, down $3,500 against a $5,000 limit, is told gold futures may be too big for that tolerance and to consider GLD, closing, or taking half off. The expected move sits inside one standard deviation because it comes from the front-month straddle, roughly 80% of it, so multiplying the straddle by 1.25 approximates the one-standard-deviation move. Index ETFs nearly always carry put skew and high flyers call skew, so the hosts favor IV rank over any skew percentage. A 45-day, 16-delta strangle at IV rank above 50, managed at 21 days or 50% profit, is endorsed as their standard approach. Selling butterflies is rejected outside 0DTE.

Agentic trades. The trades listed were a Marvell December strangle (the strike was shifted lower after the stock's fall; IV rank 52; earnings December 1), an SLV covered call, a Coinbase iron condor risking $7 to make $3, and a Google broken-wing put butterfly for a 25-cent credit. One host would make the Marvell trade a jade lizard instead, fearing a sharp rebound. Tom, calling in, says he bought Intel overnight at $57.50.

Marvell–Lumentum. Both stocks fell on the all-stock offer, which the hosts describe as $115 billion at roughly a 50% premium. Marvell dropped from about $250 to $163 and hasn't had an uptick since. The hosts say a cash deal would have been received differently, compare it to AOL–Time Warner, and say chasing the deal spread is picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. If the deal collapses, they see a possible bullish options trade on the most recent $20 drop, but not a full recovery.

AI consolidation and data centers. They cite CrowdStrike buying two AI security startups for $495 million and a count of 391 AI tools shut down or acquired by October 31, 80 of them acquired and then shut down. Their reading is that buyers are taking technology rather than building it. Three governors elected on curbing data centers are, they argue, why power names fell 5–12% on an up day. The hosts suggest companies should pay communities, for example through property-tax relief, to win acceptance.

Rotation and the 200-day. The NASDAQ 100 was 10% off its October 6 high. One host dismisses the 200-day line, since there is always another moving average above or below it. He doubts Intel's drop from 120 to 60 was rotation. One host's bias for bonds is rangebound to lower.

Apple and Palantir. Apple beat on earnings per share, revenue and iPhone growth. It fell about 4% on guidance cutting gross margin from 46% to 45%, then made an all-time high at $354.14. One host had skipped trading it because Apple stayed in its expected range only 66% of the time, a figure from the platform's newly launched earnings tool. The hosts give a viewer's praise of that tool airtime as a plug. The lesson they draw is to close earnings positions once the event passes. Nvidia near $202 is watched for a break of $200.

Butterflies. A long call butterfly centers its short strike where the trader expects the stock to land. It is cheap because, by one host's recollection, it pins only 5–6% of the time and profits about 12% of the time. The hosts reserve it for 0DTE index trades.

The hosts read the market as heavy: the Nasdaq is roughly 10% off its highs, every rally has been sold, and the VIX holds above 20 even on an up day. They treat both the election and the Iran strike reports as already priced in. Their advice is to stay nimble, size small enough to act when chances come, and pick a strategy that fits implied volatility rather than trading the headlines.

Open and election expectations. Tom describes buying Nasdaq futures and silver overnight while Apple and Palantir sold off after earnings. He is caught long Intel, Coinbase, Reddit and Robinhood, and is short Intel 80 puts. He expects a Democratic sweep that is already priced in, and little to happen before about 9 p.m., recalling a quiet 2016 election-night show that swung after he went home. He guesses the market might put in a short-term low today and drift down later in the week.

Dividends and viewer mechanics. On the question of the day, both hosts say a rising yield mostly means the price fell. A dividend cut worries them; eliminating a dividend to chase growth doesn't. Emailed questions get quick answers. When IV rank is low, keep trading at smaller size. Lump-sum investing statistically beats dollar-cost averaging, though not by much; Scott would put a big portion in now but not all, expecting further pullback. Tokenized trading still lacks uniformity, liquidity ("zero") and transparency. An iron condor can be adjusted inward only as far as an iron fly, since inverting it locks in a box.

Taxes, IRAs and loss-taking calls. A caller gets free content and Julia Spina's options book (about $20) as a starting point. Tom calls tax-loss harvesting a "scammy" buzzword that advisors use to gather assets. He says he has never traded for tax reasons and claims wash-sale rules don't affect options and futures. Scott leans 51/49 toward a Roth and says to always take a 401(k) match. Tom says no one should open an IRA at all. A caller from retirement planning pushes back, citing Social Security taxation, Medicare premiums and changing tax rates. Tony later sides with the caller, and a Dog Pound poll says 77% would not hire Tom as a tax advisor. On loss-taking, Tom says their think tank tested exits at 1x to 5x the premium and found no clear answer. Intel's overnight move was about four standard deviations ($30 against an $8 expected move) and couldn't be managed. Apple's rebound from its pre-market low shows the risk of the "first loss is the best loss" rule.

Scott's trades. He sells a /ZB 113/103 strangle (72% probability of profit, IV rank 56%, $2,340 buying power), buys a Rocket Lab 50/55 call spread for $2.45 into earnings on the 9th (48%), and sells a Cerebras November 75 put for $2.18 into earnings on the 12th (83%, $772). Cerebras IPO'd at $175 and trades near $97; he holds it pre-IPO under lockup and says he hates it. Last is a Google December double ratio for a $3.54 credit (80%, $2,976).

Tony joins: tone and the AI raise. Tony fact-checks 2016: futures were limit-down, not down 120. He calls the market stuck, with Nasdaq rallies being sold. On OpenAI raising about $11 billion of a $30 billion target at $1.25 trillion, one host says the bloom is off the rose. He expects an AI miss to be the eventual catalyst and thinks this bodes poorly for Anthropic's IPO, though a lowered IPO price range is called healthy. The other host says to trade listed AI names on IV rank, sticking to established names over fringe ones. He notes Micron went from about $200 to $1,250 and is now near $860. SpaceX, roughly flat since its IPO, is praised as a trading vehicle with options listed within days. On how far a large cap can fall, the answer is that it depends on implied volatility and the size of the prior run.

Verticals, Iran, and a pitch. A beginner with little cash is steered to selling verticals. A $5-wide spread sold for $1.50 risks $350 whatever the underlying's price. On the Iran reports, Scott expects upward pressure on oil if fighting resumes but says the market doesn't care. Defined risk still carries plenty of risk, and the trader has to be comfortable with the trade. A caller's praise of the platform's earnings data ("Bloomberg without the price") is product promotion.

Election trading and closing mechanics. VIX near 19 implies roughly a 1% daily S&P move. Scott thinks macro factors like oil and food prices matter over time and bonds go lower; Tom thinks bonds go higher. Equities offer about 50 liquid underlyings versus one bond market. Kalshi puts a Democratic sweep at 76% (the Dog Pound says 54%) and Talarico over Paxton at 71%. The S&P was higher 12 months after all 19 midterms since 1950, but day-after moves were mixed. Tony buys diagonals for under half the strike width and takes profit around $1, or takes half off. On put debit spreads, one host prefers buying a put and selling a call. Tony prefers cutting the stock position in half. A caller is told a calendar has almost no delta, so they should leave it on and open a separate trade rather than shift legs.

Dan Niles of Niles Investment Management, recorded the Monday before the midterms after a sharp tech selloff, holds that AI is heading for a "horrific bust" but that this drawdown more likely resembles 1997–98 than 2000. He is more negative than a year ago because capital is scarcer, and he trades week to week, long and short. He favours cash-flow-positive platforms and calls the neoclouds "toast."

Where the cycle stands. Six months earlier Niles forecast a 30–50% AI selloff by early 2027. He sizes AI at about 3.5% of GDP, more than highways, electrification and the internet combined, which he says guarantees overinvestment. Agentic AI needs 10–100x more tokens than chat, though, and enterprises are only starting.

Money and growth. He blames the pullback on two things. Financing is repricing: neocloud deals have been pushed out, CoreWeave debt trades at 15%, CDS have widened, and Meta, Oracle and OpenAI are all raising money ahead of Anthropic. Growth is slowing: OpenAI and Anthropic spend was up about 9x by early August and has been flat since, and Anthropic's sequential growth fell from 145% to 45%. He expects Anthropic's IPO to get done, but smaller and cheaper; a pulled deal would suggest the June 22 semiconductor peak was the top. OpenAI, stuck between Anthropic in enterprise and Google in consumer, gets squeezed, as AOL, Netscape and Nokia were.

Earnings, name by name. Microsoft is in the "catbird seat" because enterprises will pay for a safe environment, and Copilot sits on under 10% of 450 million 365 licenses. Google, down 31% from its peak, has query growth at a five-year high, so he sees a monetization problem. He expects consumers to reach AI through phones, which favours Google and Apple, but he will wait for the stock to bottom. On Intel he admits he was "completely just wrong." Chip prices are crushing PCs: Microsoft's Windows OEM line fell 7%, then 22%, and is guided down 35%. Apple's $130 billion-plus of trailing free cash flow, against Amazon's roughly $42 billion burn, explains why investors are hiding there. He expects a foldable phone to drive next year, much as the larger screen lifted growth from 7% to 28% in fiscal 2015. Nvidia is fine, but he argues long-term supply agreements won't save chipmakers in a downturn, recalling Cisco's order growth swinging from +70% to -30%.

Midterms and seasonality. Texas slowing data centers turned him more negative, and he links Microsoft's roughly $5 billion capex shortfall to the same pushback. Yet November averages +1.8% and is up 71% of the time, more so in midterm years, so equal-weight stocks may hold up.

Positioning, the Fed and oil. He recalls seven 14% rallies inside the 2000–02 bear market, in which the S&P lost about 50%. He expects Fed hikes from December, which he wants for the 40% of Americans without stocks or homes. With Brent above $100, he notes that 10 of the last 12 recessions followed sustained oil rises. His advice: don't assume every dip is a buying opportunity, because one of them will be March 2000.

The hosts read the morning's rally as unconvincing. The E-mini S&P was up about 50 and the Nasdaq about 200, after Friday's selloff that Sosnoff called "crash-like without the velocity". Sosnoff had wanted a capitulation, with Friday closing at its lows and the market opening lower, so there would be something to buy. Instead the market had already bounced roughly 100 handles and sat in "no man's land", and by the close of the show he thought a lower close today would not surprise him because the AI stocks carrying the market looked weak. The trade they pushed for viewers was contrarian put selling into the damaged names, sized small and defined where possible. They also argued that crude's fall was a bet on the midterms, not on the war.

Open and Friday's damage. The VIX was near 19.70, gold up about $70, silver up 3.5% to 51 and bonds up to about 108; crude was down $6–7. The hosts listed Friday's losing earnings trades in Reddit, Coinbase and Intel, and short crude calls that took three weeks to scratch. A question on Binance's $6 billion loss drew jokes about its pardoned CEO, not analysis.

Trade often or wait for the fat pitch. One host said his high-conviction setups have been 50-50 at best, so a trader should always be in and diversify by strategy, such as diagonals after 20–30% earnings moves. The other said every trade feels high-conviction when placed, but conceded that long-haul investors at all-time highs have done better. Gold puts sold just over 4,000, with gold later near 3,900, were the example of conviction failing on timing.

Viewer mail and calls. Credit spreads that lay 2-to-1 or 4-to-1 were defended as an 80–90% probability-of-profit play. Short puts are chosen over strangles when a stock is grossly oversold with high implied volatility, or when the trader simply wants to be long. A 30-year-old down 25% on Google, which is 20% of their portfolio, was told to lighten up on a rally toward 300–320, not at the lows. Rolling was defended as a continuation of the trade: the loss is already in the account ($10,000 to $9,000 is a loss whether realized or not), and rolling buys time and usually extra credit. For a $250,000 retirement account using covered calls, they argued covered calls use the most buying power of any strategy. They suggested synthetic or futures-based versions using 20–60% less capital, with the freed cash in short Treasury funds. Callers were told not to hold to 21 DTE on two-week bounce trades. The post-midterm 12-month rally record (about 19 of 20) was called not their style. The advice on cutting bait was to act as soon as the doubt arises. One segment also covered how to handle layoffs honestly.

Sosnoff's trades. He sold puts in Reddit (75s, $2), Robinhood (70s, $2), Intel (57.5s, about $2.40, 72% POP) and SpaceX (December puts, about $2.50, 86% POP). He said each sat near 84% POP and 16 delta, near multi-year lows, with buying power of $1,000–$1,900. He framed this as doing the opposite of everyone selling a breakdown. His co-host's caveat was that it only works if size was kept in reserve.

Earnings Radar. Scott Sheridan replaced Battista and demonstrated a new free Lossdog earnings tool. For example, it is said to show Apple staying inside its expected move 66% of the time across 56 reports. This was product promotion.

Small caps and market structure. Both hosts doubted the circulating claim that small caps averaged 42% from November of a midterm year to April, with no losing period in 80 years, though one said such a record would be tradable if real. One host argued that the market now trades almost tick for tick with roughly a dozen AI names, and that the midterms are priced in unless Republicans hold both houses. The other said Friday was not a one-off and cracks are showing: Meta is about 150 points off its high, Micron down nearly a third from 1,255, and AMD near 503 against 658. He sees room on the downside.

What counts as oversold. One host said a move through the expected move is oversold, though not a reason to pile in. The other said no threshold exists, citing his own too-early buying in 2001, late 2008 (30% lower by March 2009) and 2020. Intel, now around 64, was called "repriced" and unlikely to revisit 100. On bonds, one host said the drop to 101 flushed out sellers and expects slower gains from 107–108.

Oil. Sosnoff called crude's drop an election trade, not a geopolitical one. He predicted 90 before a return to 100, $10 lower before $5 higher, and said renewed strikes on Iran would need Republican control of both houses. Sheridan was less comfortable calling a top. Sosnoff said to trade oil only through /CL options, which are one tick wide on any number of legs and which he re-centres as a strangle each morning. Energy stocks and ETFs were rated two-and-a-half to three stars for liquidity.

Put credit spreads. One host gave the rules: 35–50 days to expiry (45 optimal), short strike at the expected move, credit roughly equal to the short delta times the width, and probability of success about 100 minus that. Management timing matters little. The trade-off is capped upside in exchange for defined risk. They called it a capital-efficient way to keep a little long delta and play positive drift, suggesting an Intel 57/52.5 spread as an example.

The hosts read the day as a soft, tech-led market. Alphabet's earnings miss dragged the Nasdaq down 400–550 points while the S&P stayed only a few points off all-time highs and volatility barely moved. Tom Sosnoff's view is that the "velocity of risk" is to the downside: he stays short index futures, and expects any midterm surprise to come on the downside even though he calls the event itself priced in. What they want from the viewer is to keep trading earnings mechanically in small size, stay roughly delta-flat into the election, and skip the stories that sound tradable but aren't: the boomer-retirement "sell-off", 24-hour options, collars.

Open and market read. Google fell about $41–44 against an expected move of about $24–25. Microsoft was a winner: one host's $1 strangle was bought back for 5–10 cents. Google and Boeing are the two losers of the earnings season so far. VIX futures were near $18.55–18.70, and one host says volatility bought ahead of the midterms, the Fed and earnings proved not to be cheap. Sosnoff cites a little over three standard deviations to the downside on Brazil's election. A co-host says that cannot be equated to the US, and that downside skew already prices it. Sosnoff counters that his own worst earnings losses, in Google and Microsoft, were both to the upside. Nasdaq IV rank was 57 against 36 for SPY.

Paper trading. Sosnoff built thinkorswim's Paper Money, which he says was downloaded close to 20 million times. He says it is good for learning a platform but misleading on fills, because trades fill at mid-price, especially in SPX. He says tastytrade never built one because, once commissions went to zero, the support load could not be paid for.

Callers. "Uncomfortable" on a naked put means an underlying carrying too many long deltas for the account. That might be 50–100 deltas or 300–500 depending on the account; Sosnoff's own example is a Google strangle that needs its calls rolled down. Once risk is defined, buying power is irrelevant: Micron at $1,000 and SoFi at $15 are the same trade. On the election, the hosts adjust only by flattening deltas, and Sosnoff expects a non-event. On Google after earnings, a caller who bought shares and sold puts is told that doubles up. One host would instead sell a 1x2 put ratio closer than usual, with the long at 30–35 delta rather than the usual 15–20, for a $3–5 credit. Emails. The wheel is a bullish strategy that exists only because there has been no extended bear market since 2009. The Nasdaq fell 80% from 2000 to 2002–03. One host adjusts iron condors by moving only the short option, taking more buying power, a bigger credit and more one-sided risk. Spreads below the long strike get rolled out a month or have a call side added; the long put is never sold. Options listing on new IPOs has gone from over a month to near-immediate, with Anthropic predicted within 48 hours. Short spreads go at the expected move and long spreads one strike either side of the money. Against a caller who calls crypto a Ponzi scheme, one host holds four or five coins at well under 1% of net worth.

Battista's trades. SpaceX: a December 150/160 call spread plus a short 140 put, with the 115 put bought to cut buying power from $6,500 to $1,500. Nvidia: a mid-November 220/227.5 call spread for $3.60, expiring before November 17 earnings; Sosnoff says it can be filled 30–40 cents better. Robinhood: buy one December 90 put and sell two 85s for $2.26, said to be 85–87% probable and to use $1,400 of buying power. Boeing: a November 175/182.5 call spread for $3.88, a delta play with IV rank at 22.

Discipline. Sosnoff says a customer's study of his roughly 670 trades over a month found him 95% within his own stated mechanics.

Mortgage resets. On 3.1 million ARMs, about 6% of mortgages, resetting 3–4 points higher, one host says it cannot be bullish because the money simply vaporizes. The other says homeowners are A-grade paper. The real threat, in their view, is junk-rated companies refinancing 6–9% debt at 14–17%, which "could take down this market".

Three-name earnings strangles. Selling 16-delta strangles in Alphabet, Amazon and Intel diversifies, but across binary events. The hosts call it the best available short of going directional or sitting out. Trading stock after hours against short premium is ruled out by the Microsoft reversal. Pre-open Google options were $6 wide with no market makers and zero volume, so 24-hour trading is dismissed. Lossdog's beta earnings tool and the One Lucky Dog app, awaiting Apple approval, get product pitches.

Retirement wave. On 16–25 million workers retiring over five years, one host says the same story has run for 30–40 years. Boomers' $30 trillion is 54% of equities, but the top 10% hold two-thirds and need not sell, so roughly $10 trillion trickles out against new younger buyers. Sosnoff says timing makes it untradable: at most, lighten up at record highs.

Benchmarks and collars. Sosnoff says benchmarks matter only when someone else manages your money; self-managed money should be measured against the risk-free rate. A co-host insists that rate is itself a benchmark, and they agree to disagree. Neither host uses collars much. They say a locked-up IPO holding that fell from $250–300 to $110 would have suited one. Otherwise collars give up edge and only buy duration.

Risk and allocation. A caller cites Kevin O'Leary's rule of $5 million in T-bills at 5% ($250,000 a year) before taking risk. Sosnoff says to be all-in through your 20s and 30s. He says he and Scott Sheridan put their first $5 million into thinkorswim, which became a billion-dollar company; O'Leary's rule would have meant quitting. Sheridan agrees on risk when young but says scaling back with age is fine.

The hosts read the market as half-recovered and still nervous: the Nasdaq had taken back about half of a 7–8% sell-off, but the VIX sat near 19 and had not contracted with the rally, ahead of a Fed decision they expected to be a non-event. What they wanted from the viewer was discipline rather than a call: keep size small and mechanical, trade on price rather than charts or correlations, and cut size further around binary events. Their one named threat was private credit, which one host argued could be the unannounced trigger for the next pullback.

The open and the question of the day. Asked whether managing at 21 days "protects" against negative gamma, the hosts say it does not; their research shows rolling at 21 days back out to 45–55 days flattens P&L volatility, and buying premium into expiration to exploit gamma is "flipping the cards", unlike a small hedge of 3% or less of premium sold. On whether win rate or win size matters more — a 40% win rate needs winners 1.5 times losers, a 75% rate only a third — both hosts answer that size kills: stay mechanical and never ramp up after a move or double down to catch up.

Viewer questions on mechanics. Re-centring a tested strangle instead of rolling the untested side to a straddle is possible but carries more delta risk; the adjustment is always a debit. A caller is told Meta (IV rank 42) is a better long near 620 than above 700, but to keep puts small given the VIX. For an IRA putting 50% into 45-day iron condors, the hosts call that too heavy, put iron condor success near 65–70% if winners are managed, and guess at a 15% drawdown depending on the speed of the move, still less than holding SPY. CFDs are not permitted for US brokers, at leverage up to 200 to 1; futures-only firms' $500 intraday ES margin buys about 10 points before auto-liquidation, against roughly $6,000 at a standard four-times intraday rate.

The agentic trades. The segment presents the product's AI-generated ideas: an FXI covered call (IV rank 49), Baidu December 70 puts for about $1.83 ahead of earnings on November 16, a BABA 95/90 put spread for $1.64, and a KWEB call debit spread. One host's rule: a spread collecting about a third of its width carries roughly a 65% probability of profit. Sosnoff says he placed all four the day before, and that they are listed on the platform.

Sosnoff's calls. Sosnoff argues traders take directional views because they have opinions, unlike a market maker, and that he does not want to know anyone else's view. A caller's friend's hostility to self-directed trading draws the argument that the pro/retail line has collapsed and advisors will survive mainly as empathetic hand-holders in a contracting business; 11% of the viewer poll used one. Neither host enters closing orders when opening a trade. Asked about Elon Musk, Sosnoff gives personal and political objections, including that Tesla and SpaceX have paid no taxes. A pitch follows for a free trade-sharing app awaiting Apple approval.

GM, earnings and sizing. GM's November 17 move from the NYSE to Nasdaq, making it eligible for the Nasdaq-100, is judged not tradable at a roughly $65 billion market cap. One host holds Google earnings trades until after the Fed. For an SK Hynix put sale using 7% of buying power, the answer is acceptable but borderline: 7–10% is the ceiling, 3–5% in bigger accounts, less for earnings and 0DTE. A caller with $1 million in strangles is told about $50,000 of buying power per underlying, so about five AMD strangles.

Anthropic. A viewer asks how to weigh a public benefit corporation. The host who discloses a pre-IPO stake calls the mission PR: a for-profit with shareholders cannot really subordinate them, and "long-term benefit of humanity" is too loose to bind anyone. The hosts split on the IPO, one willing to take unlimited shares at the IPO price, the other none, expecting a lower close; they bet $100 on a 10% first-day gain, and the viewer poll came back 87% yes.

Private credit. Citing the Wall Street Journal, $300 billion of PE-backed loans start maturing in 2028, a third in software and a quarter CCC or worse. One host argues refinancing at 10–13% after 4–5% strains borrowers already near lows, pointing to CoreWeave bonds at 15–16% and Blue Owl's 1–2% quarterly redemption limits; the other replies the market already knows. Both see equities ignoring what the bond market is saying.

Poor man's covered calls. The closing topic is delta arithmetic: stock is 100 deltas, a covered call about 70, and a 60-delta long call against a 30-delta short about 30. Two such spreads roughly match one covered call for somewhat less capital, at the cost of extrinsic value, no dividend and more management.

Maggie Fanari, CEO of J. Rothschild Capital Management, which runs the 4.5 billion RIT Capital Partners trust, argues that a three-pillar portfolio built on concentrated private technology stakes can compound in the mid-teens. She points to SpaceX and Anthropic as proof, and says the trust's roughly 20% discount to NAV undervalues those holdings.

Mandate and record. RIT, Jacob Rothschild's former family office listed in 1988, aims for equity-like returns while protecting capital in down markets, and has returned about 10.7% a year since inception. Frost notes a weak decade (up 75% against 200% for the all-country index). Fanari blames 2022, and says that since she joined in 2024 she has rebuilt the portfolio top-down with fewer, larger positions. It is up 27% over one year and 44% over two.

Public markets. She sees earnings resilience and reasonable S&P multiples. With about 60% of constituents below their 200-day average, she finds opportunity in US small and mid-cap industrials. A 10-year yield above 5% does not worry her while nominal GDP growth stays above it. Japan is a corporate-governance play at single-digit multiples. Europe is a deglobalization trade, entered via defence stocks after Trump's election.

Private winners. Private assets are about a third of the portfolio. SpaceX, her first RIT investment, was bought near $200 billion and has returned more than four times; she will trim the oversized stake. Anthropic was bought at $170 billion in September 2025. She calls its enterprise focus defensible because sensitive work demands the most trusted model. Stripe (about $160 billion) and Cognition (bought at $24–25 billion, now about $48 billion) carry the AI theme into agent infrastructure and agentic AI. Direct AI exposure is near 10%, or about 20% including funds. Uncorrelated pillar. This pillar, 22–25% of the portfolio, is braced for structural volatility. Liquid credit has been cut, macro funds were up about 30% by June, and gold sits at the bottom of its 4–8% band. She warns that refinancing cheap 2020–21 debt could unsettle credit next year.

Discount and ethos. She calls the 20% discount unjustified and cyclical; RIT last traded at a premium around 2018–19. She cites down-market capture in the mid-30s against more than 70% upside capture. Her parting advice is to keep things simple: structure cannot turn a bad company into a good one.

The hosts read the market as complacent and range-bound until the midterms. VIX at 19 is their pivot: below it, a sustained rally; above it, a harder tape. They want the viewer selling December premium into that volatility across the events before November 6. Losing positions should be handled mechanically and contrarian, not by hoping. They would pass on Anthropic's IPO at a $2 trillion valuation, or take only a token allotment.

Open and viewer questions. E-mini S&Ps were up about 24, inside a roughly 26-point expected move, and bonds sat near 107 after rising from 101–102. Selling 35–50 DTE naked puts into earnings, at 18 to 30 delta, is called more attractive when bullish, because earnings inflate volatility. An existing position depends on where the stock sits before the report. Deep in-the-money tech put credit spreads should be exited around two times the credit, the research cited says. A host still bullish could add a call spread to make an iron condor, recovering 70–80 cents, or about 8–10% of the credit. One host says this is why spreads beat naked options in a sell-off.

Small accounts, Bloom Energy, SPX. Both reject buying options in small accounts. Use more buying power instead: 75–100% in a small account, against 30% being significant in a $1 million one. A December Bloom Energy put sold for $14 and now $37.50 should stay in December, at 52 days, rather than roll to January's wider markets. Selling a December call into the call skew cuts the doubled delta. A caller with two short 180/190 spreads was told to cover one. SPX versus SPY 0DTE means 10 times the size, cash settlement, Section 1256 60/40 tax treatment and wider absolute markets, so work the mid. A plan to sell a strangle into earnings, take assignment, then sell covered calls is dismissed as resting on assumptions.

Volatility landscape. This segment is a pitch for a new Lost Dog feature. It is described as 21 million end-of-day IV observations on about 10,000 stocks and ETFs, up to 20 years deep, across seven maturities. The argument is that 30-day IV alone cannot describe the volatility environment. An earnings tool is promised for next week.

Scott's trades. Google and Amazon double-ratio spreads for October 30 earnings: $1.78 credit with an $18 expected move, IVR 69, POP 85; and 96 cents with a $17.50 move, IVR 59, POP 88. A Netflix December jade lizard at its 52-week low, short the 60 put and 70/72 call spread for $2, POP 58. A November bond strangle, short the 111.5 call and 103.5 put for 34 ticks ($531), against a ~$254 expected move; IVR 55, POP 76.

EWZ and contrarianism. With Tom Sosnoff joined, the question was how to tell an oversold bounce from a correction after EWZ fell more than 25% on Lula's runoff win. You cannot, except in hindsight. One host bought in the 30–31 range and sold above 33: a great play the day before, untouchable after a 15% rally. The rule offered is to be consistently contrarian, in an underlying you think is cheap that also has liquidity. Two illiquid earnings trades from the night before could not be exited. Few country ETFs qualify: EWZ, EEM, FXI.

Anthropic. The S-1 proposes ticker ANT, a $60–85 range at $1.5–2 trillion, a $100 billion raise and a pre-Thanksgiving listing. The hosts would take somewhere from zero to ten shares, citing roughly 40 times revenue and heavy losses. One host calls the price advantageous for retail but would cut the order by 75%, remembering an $8-a-share loss on 5,000 shares of a 1980s IPO. A team study of 9,300 IPOs since 1980 found a 19% average first-day return. Buyers at the first-day close trailed the market by 21% over three years. SpaceX peaked 67% above its 135 offer and now trades below its opening. Callers mostly would wait for a drop and sell puts.

Event cluster and VIX. The hosts rarely trade VIX options now. Fading a VIX spike is hard because premium sellers are already short volatility. Both call the Fed (94% no change) and the big-tech earnings near non-events, and see the midterms as the risk. One would use a jade lizard in QQQ or SPY; the other would sell both sides of December after the vote. CBOE data cited: realized volatility was higher in midterm years than the year before about 80% of the time.

Core positions. One host calls scalping around a core position among the hardest things in trading. Sosnoff argues that a blank slate is harder, because it forces you to be right twice, on entry and exit. The counter is that a blank slate is uncorrelated to the market. His Boeing November 165 puts show the cost. He passed on a small-winner buyback, and with the stock down about $16 they are near $5. He plans to sell calls against them.

The hosts read the market as heavy: a weak Nasdaq, most stocks selling off after strong earnings, and a VIX stuck near 19 despite a downdraft, mega-cap reports and next month's midterms. What they want the viewer to do is not outguess it: trust the market's pricing, keep position size constant, and sell premium at a volatility level they call a sweet spot. They do much of that in futures options and in bonds, where a sharp rally has, in their view, made this week's Fed meeting a non-event.

The open. The tape is described as mid-range and choppy, with oil around $101 and the 30-year bond back above 107. One host notes that Meta, Micron and SpaceX spiked after beating numbers and then got hammered, Tesla being the exception. Host trades mentioned include scalped Nasdaq futures, pre-market buys of EWZ after Brazil's election (about $31, roughly 25% lower) and of Robinhood ahead of earnings, and short puts in gold and silver.

Callers on mechanics. On when to abandon a tested strangle, the hosts cite their research: the optimal stop is about two times the credit received, but it beats doing nothing only marginally, so the exit is a comfort call. IV is called mean-reverting where price is not, with the VIX's long-run mean at 17–18. They treat IVR above 30 as a sell zone, below 20 as a cover zone, and 20–30 as no man's land. On China's roughly 20% fall, one host puts its correlation with US stocks at 0.3–0.4 now, against 0.5–0.7 two decades ago. It is still read as a red flag that a 20% US sell-off is possible.

Volatility and the mailbag. The question of the day carries the episode's main argument. One host has personally cut size, but advises keeping it consistent because low-volatility stretches this year kept marching to new highs; a sports-betting line is the analogy for trusting market pricing. In quick answers, $1.5 trillion of margin debt is at most a yellow flag. Oil, bonds, gold and the S&P are called uncorrelated and traded as independent positions. Open interest, unusual volume and Level II quotes are said to carry no usable signal. Expected move is explained as implied volatility converted to dollars, with 19% IV roughly a 1% daily move.

Tom's trades of the week. All four sell premium, mostly in futures, with buying power quoted at viewers' request. December gold 3,500 puts at about 14.50 carry an 8 delta, a 93% probability of profit (POP) and $9,500 of buying power. SLV December 45 puts at $1.34, presented as the one-tenth-size equivalent, carry a 28 delta, 73% POP and $800. A 51-day crude 83.5/132.5 strangle collects about $3,500 at 16 delta a side, 72–76% POP, on $6,600. A 39-day euro 1.10/1.145 strangle, chosen for an IVR of 67, collects about $625 on $1,300. The co-host warns that futures buying power can double or triple near expiration; the reply is that buying power, not notional, is the real risk measure.

Scott Sheridan joins: income funds. A covered call that gets called away is a "high-class problem", since it is a long-delta trade. On NVDY, TSLY and MSTY, the 57% and 65% payouts are called partly returned capital, with tax complications. One host says the 1.09% fee looks small next to likely slippage on over-the-counter synthetics; the funds are fully bullish, with capped upside and full downside. A long argument follows over whether losing 51% instead of 59% is a success. One host calls benchmarking nonsense; the other says it gives context, as IVR does for implied volatility.

Bonds and the Fed. The bond market, put at roughly $70 trillion, is called far bigger than the Fed, which is cast as catastrophe insurance. One host calls the slide from 110 to 101 the most irrational bond move in years and a rare buying opportunity. The other calls it normalisation after years of 3% long rates and zero short rates, and expects more. Later the hosts put hike odds near zero against prediction markets' 94% hold, citing the 10-year's fall from almost 5.35% to 4.96%. A hike would not be bullish, they say, and stocks care about neither rates nor midterms. One host is short puts and calls in bonds and notes.

Rolling, value and LEAPS. Rolling out in time is said to cut delta by 20–30%. Twenty-one days is a guideline, not a rule; roll into strength rather than weakness. Value investing is treated as passive investing, fine for part of a portfolio, and LEAPS as more capital-efficient upfront but costlier than stock.

Earnings and iron condors. Trading Google, Microsoft and Amazon through an index mutes both sides without removing outlier risk, so the hosts prefer single names, sized small, against expected moves of about 6–8%. Iron condors are framed as a bet that volatility will not show up; the hosts use only wide ones for capital efficiency and avoid tight four-leg structures around binary events as hard to adjust. The close is a plain product and podcast plug.

The hosts read the day as a real risk-off break. By the end of the show, S&P futures were down about 110 handles (around 1.5%), the Nasdaq about 2.5%, and the VIX near 19.4. Oil sat near $99–100 and bonds rallied from 101 to 107. Tom Sosnoff was short, said he was "not covering one lot", and wouldn't buy the dip. He said the tape scared him after the action the previous Friday. Tony Battista called it an opportunity. Their shared advice was mechanical: with December SPY implied volatility around 18 against a usual 14.5 or so, they called this the best time in about 60 days to sell 45-day premium. They also favored selling puts in oversold names, cutting delta instead of trying to call turns, and staying away from any merger or buyback "arb".

The open. The market recap shows the previous day's earnings rally reversed. Meta was down about $46 against a $40 expected move, after trading up $25–30 after hours, and IBM was well outside its range. A dog-pound question on a jade lizard under pressure gets one answer: move the short call spread down two or three strikes to cut delta about 50%. That turns the position into a synthetic strangle at no extra buying power.

Market timing. The question of the day cites a 20-year S&P 500 study. Fully invested earned about 11% a year, while missing the 10 best days cut that to about 6%, and seven of those days came within two weeks of the 10 worst. Both hosts call perfect timing impossible. They separate the passive IRA holder from the trader, who "times" constantly by adjusting size. Selling covered calls is offered as the IRA version of cutting delta.

Viewer emails. On theta, the hosts' example: an option sold for $1 with 20 days left decays maybe $2–3 a day early on and perhaps $20 over the last three days. That acceleration is why they exit at 21 days. One host says naked calls are allowed in IRAs at tastytrade, having pushed for it around 2018, though short stock is not, since IRAs cannot borrow shares. For a 1%-a-month target on a $1 million IRA, the other host suggests committing 25–35% of capital to roughly 30-delta short puts. They prefer fewer, larger contracts ("size kills"), about 8–10. On earnings next week, neither predicts reactions, and both prefer moving positions from November to December. On tax-loss harvesting, the hosts say they never trade for taxes. The answer then turns into a pitch for the platform's correlation tool for finding a substitute stock.

Trades and the IV rank recap. Tony's trades: a November QQQ iron condor (IV rank about 65), a $1-debit Netflix unbalanced butterfly, a small call diagonal, and a JPMorgan call spread (IV rank 12) that didn't fill. Tom says the previous night's IBM, Meta and Tesla strangles, sized by IV rank, all won in IV-rank order. He also says gold was closed when its IV rank fell to 16, before an $80 drop.

Callers. A caller trading SPX 0DTE broken-wing butterflies is encouraged. The hosts call that structure close to tailor-made for zero-day trading and mainly a theta play. On selling /ES puts every 50 or so days, the hosts back it as a law-of-large-numbers bet. They say the market has been up about 58–59% of the time over 15 years, against a historical 53/47. Tom then gives his sizing: daily theta near 0.2% of the account, about $200 per $100,000. Delta runs at 150–300 SPY beta-weighted deltas per $100,000. He says $1,000 a day of theta at that size signals too much gamma. Both roll the untested side, Tom by discomfort and Tony at a 15–20 delta skew.

Tesla–SpaceX. Each company has formed a committee to explore a merger. One host thinks it probably won't happen, the other that it probably will. They agree there is no arb or pairs trade before or after terms. They expect a review at least as long as the roughly nine-month Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery deal.

Mortgages and retirement accounts. A move from 7.4% to 7.65% costs about $19,440 over 30 years on a $400,000 home. Neither host has ever let rates stop a purchase, and both reject the comparison with passive S&P investing. That leads to one host's claim that young people should not open retirement accounts and should invest in themselves instead. A 53-year-old caller extends this to entrepreneurship at any age.

Buybacks and DRIPs. On the record $1.55 trillion in expected buybacks, both say there is no trade. One would fade a rally on an announcement, since companies need not follow through. The segment opens with a pitch for an upcoming "One Lucky Dog" ideas app, with early access offered first to show viewers. On DRIPs, both hosts say reinvesting makes sense for investors who bought for the dividend and is irrelevant for growth stocks. Neither uses one.

Rapid fire. The move is beyond 1.5 standard deviations. One host has sold Cerebras 100 puts after the stock fell from about $350 to under $110. Neither would buy Apple, or short the broad market except on a rally. VIX futures are up 6%, the biggest one-day move in a while.

The hosts read the market as heavy and split: the Nasdaq had sold off more than 2,000 points while the E-mini S&Ps held a roughly 100-point range, chips were breaking, and volatility was beginning to lift into a heavy earnings day. Their prescription throughout is to trade rather than invest through it: sell premium where IV rank is high, shorten duration when it is and extend it when it is not, trust the options market's expected move, and treat dip-buying in broken stocks and gold-as-insurance with suspicion. Tom Sosnoff and Scott host the first half; Tony Battista replaces Tom for the second.

Earnings fills and the open. Tom reports selling mostly puts in Netflix around $65 into earnings, where the expected move was about $6 and the stock moved about $3, and says volatility is "borderline": high enough to sell earnings premium, not high enough to go big. He says his large short is the Nasdaq.

Winners or losers first. A study of 10,000 brokerage accounts found investors realized about 15% of paper gains and 10% of paper losses. Both hosts are comfortable taking gains at all-time highs. The real split is elsewhere: one host says contributing to a retirement account every year was among his biggest regrets and that a 22- or 25-year-old buying stocks for 40 years is "bogling yourself into oblivion"; the other defends set-and-forget saving and calls the hosts' own path of starting businesses highly unusual advice to give anyone.

Viewer mechanics. Pre-market options listings are more liquidity, not a sign of a top. Overbought without charts is a felt range from watching all day; Tom says none of roughly 150 traders in the SPX pit he visited was looking at a chart. A 30-delta covered call leaves the equivalent of 70 long shares, and naked puts beat it in Netflix. Iron condors take short strikes at the expected move and come off at a fixed day count or profit target; spreads go on and come off as spreads, except that a broken-wing butterfly's short vertical can be bought back to hold a free butterfly. Rolling at 21 DTE and closing below IV rank 20 are consistency rules: Tom closed a gold futures strangle, adjusted about 50 times over six weeks, when IV rank hit 16.

Product segment. A pure product pitch for a free AI "portfolio dependency review" of up to 20 uploaded holdings, with a scarcity line about future caps.

Tom's earnings trades. Tom ties duration to IV rank. IBM, IV rank 49, near $243: October 210 puts for $0.74, about twice the $16 expected move, and a November 200/290 strangle for $2.32. Tesla, IV rank only 28: out to December, expected move about $50, a small "engagement trade" he puts at about a 90% chance of making 50 to 60 cents. Meta, IV rank 65, near $707: a November strangle around 560/870 for about $4.50. Uber, near its 52-week low around $68 with IV rank near 80: a bullish jade lizard, November 65 puts plus the 72.5/75 call spread, for about $2.46–2.50. Tony later mocks selling a 50-cent put on a $250 stock.

Chips. The semiconductor index's longest losing streak since 2008 erased about $2 trillion yet left it up nearly 60% on the year. One host calls it a contrarian trade on a one-week-to-45-day horizon; the other, who has predicted the end of buy-the-dip, warns that stocks bought down 10–20% now sit 50% lower. Both dismiss a JP Morgan SpaceX target raised to $500 as unactionable. Cited against the selloff: TSMC third-quarter profit up about 69%; for it, CoreWeave down more than 15% in October on debt worries. Lam Research and Texas Instruments report after the close, each priced for about an 8% move.

Gold. At about $4,100, gold is down almost a third from about $5,781, while the 10-year yields about 5% and real yields reached about 2.6% on September 21, a 20-year high. Neither host is a gold bug; they expect a range, trade /GC rather than GLD, and Scott argues gold will not help if "all hell breaks loose." The dog pound poll ran 30% gold bugs. A caller defends physical metal as convertible when paper fails; Tony grants gold has recently outperformed stocks.

Callers. One caller warns that 0DTE puts on index futures are cash-settled, so there is no position left to sell calls against. For a Marvell strangle carrying about 28 short deltas at a 62% probability of profit, Tony would roll the put up to about 10 to 15 short deltas and act before December earnings. A caller back to break-even on SpaceX puts rolled to January is told to close them and go shorter: "don't keep something because you have it."

Tesla and the wheel. Tesla's implied move of about 6%, against a roughly 9% historical earnings average, is in the hosts' view correct; they would never buy a straddle, would sell a strangle near twice the expected move, and see upside as muted. Realized moves beat implied in 11 of 16 reports. On the wheel, one host prefers rolling in-the-money puts to taking assignment and its overnight risk; the other accepts it on beaten-up, high-IV-rank stocks but not at all-time highs.

The hosts read the day as a "tale of two tapes": the Russell and Dow rallying hard while the Nasdaq could not hold a rally or get through about 29,900. To them that confirms the snapback rallies are failing and that weakness is concentrated in the big tech names. Their advice to the viewer is to keep selling premium mechanically, trade small, adjust early, and treat size as the only real protection against a crash. Sosnoff ends short S&P and Nasdaq futures and long the Russell, and calls the session "day one of the down move".

Open and the Nasdaq head fake. Scott says he and Sosnoff both sold Nasdaq futures before Monday's high, which came in a 300-point run without a downtick, and he calls it a head fake. Oil above $101 is offered as the morning's drag. The day's Nasdaq range of 300–320 points had already beaten the expected move of about 200–225.

Do rates matter to options? The hosts explain that higher rates lift calls relative to puts through the cost of carrying a synthetic stock position, with the biggest effect on long-dated options. Both then dismiss it for their own trading. Rates are one of five pricing inputs, but at 3% the effect is pennies, and they would only trade it if rates headed toward 8–10%. Asked by a caller about playing a 25–50 basis point move in yields through options, Scott says he isn't smart enough to try, and that volatility swamps it.

Viewer mail. The hosts reject hedging a short put with short stock over a weekend: if you're scared, close the trade or turn it into a defined-risk spread, because short stock "puts gasoline on a potential fire" if the stock jumps. A nervous long-side trader is told to cut size or roll down the untested side of a strangle to halve delta. On idle cash, they say sellers of equity and index options can hold T-bills or T-bill ETFs and get back roughly 92–96% of their value as buying power. That doesn't work for futures, crypto, or buying stock. Both prefer short spreads to buying calls or puts. Scott defends his call that bond futures fall below 100, which he puts at about a 6% 30-year yield. He cites round-number psychology and inflation: core CPI strips out food and energy, and gas $2 higher costs a 20-gallon driver about $2,000 a year. A viewer who closed the call side of strangles and kept the puts "in hopes" is told hope is not a strategy. The test they offer: if you had no position, would you sell that put today?

Scott's trades. He describes four trades. A Netflix Oct-23 65/64 put ratio for $0.88 credit (IV rank 73, probability of profit 81%). An IBM 220/215 put ratio for $0.65 (IVR 49, 90%). A SpaceX Nov-20 double ratio for $3.00, short the 175 call and 115 put synthetically, played as a range trade; he got the earnings date wrong on air, and earnings were that day. And a bond-futures strangle selling the 108 call and 100 put for 50 ticks ($781), at IVR 64 and 72%. Sosnoff later says he would neither short bonds here nor do the SpaceX double ratio.

Sosnoff's book and adjusting. He reports 35 trades by mid-morning, including covering and re-selling S&P and Nasdaq futures, Netflix Oct 60 puts at $0.43, a Netflix Nov 60/85 strangle and a SpaceX Nov 110/195 strangle near $1.60. A caller with short puts down 200–400% asks when to roll. One host gets uncomfortable when delta roughly doubles, from about 20 to 35–40. Sosnoff calls himself a more aggressive adjuster than either co-host and says he goes through every position daily. Aggressive adjusting, he argues, is chasing price early instead of late, which is why most traders buy tops.

Midterms and the market structure. With prediction markets at 91% for a Democratic House and 63% for both chambers, the hosts see nothing to trade. They would sell any volatility pumped in beforehand and fade the first move on the night, likening it to a Fed decision. Cboe is said to be adding pre- and post-market options trading on about 20 top names. The hosts split on whether spreads there will be a nickel to a dime wide or much wider.

Scaling, quarterbacks and earnings timing. Asked how to deploy a seven-figure account in small trades, Sosnoff suggests more undefined-risk trades, some stock, and wider strikes, then closes on a pitch for the Lossdog platform. On Jalen Hurts' injury, the hosts argue a quarterback matters far more than a CEO. About a third of teams can't lose theirs, they say, against perhaps 1% of companies. On earnings, they say their research found no reliably best time to sell premium beforehand, and buying premium early for a volatility pop fails. One host says getting direction right matters most; another says starting from high implied volatility does.

Black swans. One host suggests short-dated puts costing about 3–5% of the premium sold. Another rejects Taleb-style tail buying: it only stops you capitulating at the bottom, and you never know when to sell. He says staying under 50–60% of buying power carried him through 2000, 2008, the pandemic and the tariff selloff. A recently blown-up tech fund is his evidence that over-leverage, not bad ideas, is what kills traders.

The hosts read Friday's sell-off as a real shift. S&P futures fell 110 handles intraday, the NASDAQ was nearly 7% off its highs and the VIX traded over 20. They did not trust Monday's bounce, and Sosnoff sold S&P and NASDAQ futures into it. What they wanted from the viewer was premium selling, not hedging: sell puts in beaten-down names into an earnings season whose implied moves they call fairly priced, skip stop orders, and treat AI concentration and ETF overlap as reasons to trim, not to flee.

The open. Sosnoff waited 27–30 S&P handles and about 250 NASDAQ handles into Sunday night's rally before shorting, and stayed slightly short both. On whether he closes strangles before Meta earnings, he says he never closes while IVR stays high. Instead he recenters: buys the wings, resets delta-neutral, widens strikes and may cut contracts. His Meta strangle is two to three times the expected move at about $700. He covered corn and soybean strangles once IVR fell to around 6 and 20.

Stop losses. The question of the day cites MIT's Andrew Lo and Kathryn Kaminsky: stops can only lower expected return when prices are random, and help only when prices trend. Both hosts say their tastytrade research agreed. Sosnoff says he kept stops out of thinkorswim at first and has never used one in about 45 years. Whoever uses one should pair it with a profit limit, so a fill is as likely to be a winner as a loser.

Viewer emails. For a losing strangle near earnings, Tony would roll to the next month, widen strikes and cut delta; Sosnoff stays in if IVR stays high. Between GLD and GC, physical commodities go to the deeper futures market, though GC is ten times GLD's size, and SLV is more liquid than silver futures. For index options they default to SPY over ES. On scalping direction, both call themselves contrarians: they lean against a one-standard-deviation move. A $1 million account earning $10,000 a month is 12% a year, which they call reasonable for a premium seller: about $100–150 of daily theta per $100,000, keeping 25–50% of it.

Trades of the week. Sosnoff's list: sell SLV November 49 puts for about $1 at IVR 8, a purely directional trade. Sell the SPY November 785/790 call spread for $1.55, risking $3.45 at roughly 67% probability of profit, fading the bounce. Sell SoFi November 14 puts near $0.80 ahead of earnings on the 27th. Sell a $100-wide CrowdStrike strangle (187.5/287.5) for about $4.60 at IVR 58, with the stock at 228 after nearing 300. On wide markets, one host warns not to trust the mid price but to start at your own price and walk the order.

Black Monday, 39 years on. Sosnoff recalls flying home from Vegas short a few deltas and fearing a gap up, then watching the pit shrink from about 400 traders to 30 or 40. Rumors had clearing firms and a major bank failing, and calls sold that morning as a hedge rose $10–20 on volatility. Asked how to protect against black swans, both say little can be done beyond staying small and defining risk. They note circuit breakers and deeper liquidity now.

AI concentration. With 45 AI names supplying 39% of the S&P's 14% gain, Scott Sheridan and Sosnoff expect at most a rotation, not a full give-back. Their reasoning is that these are trillion-dollar firms, unlike dot-com. Both say the market has been "crap" without AI and advise trimming rather than exiting, citing their own pre-IPO holding that fell from the mid-300s to $125 and can't yet be sold.

ETF overlap and the Russell spread. Both call multiple broad ETFs a false sense of security: 94% of QQQ is in the S&P, and three Vanguard funds are ~30% Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft. The overlap does make them tradeable against each other. On a long-Russell, short-NASDAQ spread, 3:1 leans long Russell and 2:1 leans short NASDAQ; about 2.5:1, or 5:2 in micro contracts, is roughly flat. One host likes the trade now; the other never buys the Russell. They dismiss fractional shares in a $5,000–10,000 account in favor of credit spreads, and European indices for lack of option liquidity.

Earnings season. Both say Netflix, Meta, Tesla and IBM implied moves are priced "perfectly", though Sosnoff will trade them if volatility stays bid. Netflix sits near $70, down from 107 two reports ago, at IVR 73 with a 9–10% expected move. He would sell the 65 puts and not the 75 calls. He is short puts in IBM, around 234. Studies cited: bought straddles won 22% of the time, and implied beat realized in 67% of 70 events, but Microsoft priced 3% and fell 10%. His rant at sports books, which take 10% vig and stop quoting during play, makes the case for always-open two-sided listed markets.

Calendars. Both prefer strangles to at-the-money calendars for earnings and call double calendars too hard. One host would trade calendars only directionally and in indexes; the other prefers a diagonal with a short vertical embedded to add delta.

Bonds and the Fed. Scott expects bonds to break below 100. Sosnoff, now short premium after covering his long, buys at 103–104 and bets $20 on 110 before 102. They agree the Fed has one more quarter-point hike, and that at 107 none would be needed. The show closes with a sign-up pitch for the Lossdog community and its coming "One Lucky Dog" product.

The hosts read the day as a short-term washout in an overstretched Nasdaq. September's 3.7% CPI had sent the 10-year to about 5.3% before it eased to 5.05%, and the Nasdaq fell roughly 5.5% in six or seven sessions while bonds rallied. Tom Sosnoff's long-bonds / short-Nasdaq trade paid off and he covered most of it. His view is that the selloff is overdone short term but not finished, and that any rally in the next couple of days should be sold. He and Tony Battista agree on the lesson: conviction only works if the position is sized to sit through the pain.

The open: the bond trade. Sosnoff says he made about 40 trades overnight. He sold bonds from about 104½ to over 105 and covered S&P futures down 27–32 and Nasdaq futures down 200–400, because he won't be short into expiration Thursday. Battista notes he first sat through about three handles of pain. They list Micron down about $50, AMD down $32 and Nvidia down $7 at $215, and they call Apple and Netflix reverse indicators. A plug follows for the new One Lucky Dog platform, due in under two weeks, which sign-ups at Lost Dog will see first.

Dollar-cost averaging. The hosts cite Vanguard's finding that a lump sum beat a three-month phase-in about two-thirds of the time. They say their own 15 or 16 years of think-tank research agreed, and they credit positive drift and how hard timing is. On trades, one host argues that splitting a 10-lot leaves you annoyed whichever way the market moves. When a viewer says Sosnoff eases in too, he concedes he adds on down moves, buying Robin Hood at 101 and again near 95, but calls that opportunism, not DCA.

Viewer questions. One viewer is short 10-delta puts in Micron, Seagate and SanDisk. Battista says the three are so correlated they are one big position. If the broker is forcing hedges, he would have switched to a long call spread, and he doubts that blindly selling 10-delta Nasdaq puts still works. His strangles run 16–22 delta a side, about a 60–72% probability of profit, and he takes 25–50% of the maximum. On an all-cash takeover the advice is to sell everything: $48 against a $50 deal is worth $48, and the last $2 belongs to arbitrageurs. One host's niece made 12.5% with a money manager while the S&P rose about 20.5%. The hosts' point is that passive money should be benchmarked, while active traders should aim at a multiple of the risk-free rate. One host says no rate would stop him trading.

Battista's trades. All four trades are losing today. They are diagonals in Oracle, QQQ and Nvidia, plus an SPX broken-wing butterfly. The Oracle diagonal sells October 30 options at 67% implied volatility against Novembers at 61%, with the stock near 131, down from a 350 peak. The butterfly buys the 7300 put, sells two 7275s and buys a 7225, for a $1.80 credit and a probability of profit above 95%. Its long strike sits near 15 delta, about a 30% touch chance, and it uses under $3,000 of buying power. He will hold it, because defined risk is the stop.

Moneyball and liquidity. Scott Sheridan joins with a test for any position: would you open it here? He then compares front offices with traders. A 2013 study found top NFL draft picks overvalued, with surplus value peaking around the late first and early second rounds. At the 2026 MLB deadline, 47 of 70 trades came on the final day as asking prices fell, which he likens to bids and offers converging. A 2022 University of Michigan paper found free-agent pay tracked run contribution both before and after Moneyball. The moral drawn is that listed markets are the most liquid there are, and that a forced trade marks an earlier mistake. On portfolio margin the hosts split: Battista goes up to 50% when volatility is high, while Sheridan calls 50% too high and 35% right.

AI spending. Sheridan argues that railroads benefited everyone, whereas the AI buildout asks towns to take data centers on trust. Spending is 3.6% of a $32 trillion-plus GDP, about 50% above the railroad peak. Companies wanting backing should offer something like property-tax cuts, he says, and universal basic income from for-profit firms is fantasy. He cites Meta's Hyperion vehicle: about $27 billion of debt on nearly $30 billion of assets, with one analyst saying a 10% cash-flow drop erases the equity. Battista is pro-AI with some environmental checks, and would rather the US lead than its enemies.

Bonds versus stocks. On whether yields cap the rally, the hosts admit they don't know. They note the S&P has fallen about half as much as the Nasdaq, after the Russell fell first. The advice turns to size: Sheridan says retail traders trade too big and should start with micro futures, a hundredth of the old S&P contract. When volatility is high at 21 days, the hosts roll positions into the back month.

Risk reversals. The hosts call selling an out-of-the-money put to buy a call "the stupid trade," a doubled-up directional bet. In their example the stock is at $100 with 60 days to go: sell the 95 put for $3 and buy the 105 call for $2. That keeps $1 between the strikes, breaks even at 94, opens around 70 deltas and needs margin. Whether a spread acts like a synthetic short depends on its width relative to the share price.

The hosts read the day as a market rolling over. S&P futures slid through the session to about -59 and the Nasdaq to about -335, silver fell roughly 5.5%, and bonds rallied off their lows even as stocks sold off. One host is short the Nasdaq and long bonds. Another expects a 10–15% pullback, calls it healthy, and is running about 40% of normal position size. What they want from viewers is smaller size and flexibility, not new conviction. They treat the AI build-out's growing debt load as the likeliest unseen trigger.

Copying Buffett. The question came from Berkshire's second-quarter filings: $20 billion of net buying, ending 14 straight quarters of net selling, with $365 billion in cash and T-bills. One host argues that copying any famous investor's 13F means buying at prices the pros have already moved past, since the filings arrive six weeks late. The other replies that the copying is not the point. A filing is useful because it puts a stock, such as Alphabet, on your radar. This turns into a pitch for the hosts' upcoming One Lucky Dog platform, with early invitations offered to Lossdog signups.

Viewer calls and questions. A caller selling at-the-money puts says their income rose from $2,000 a month to an expected $20,000, about 140% a year. Both hosts call it risk taken in a favourable market and not an edge. They warn that a sell-off brings high implied volatility and gamma, and tell the caller to keep size small. Across several questions the hosts repeat that implied volatility rank, not the VIX, sets their mechanics. Their example is bonds and stocks with similar implied volatility, where bonds carry nearly double the IV rank, so they would rather sell premium in bonds. They also argue that analyst price targets cluster at the 16-delta call because analysts work backward from the market makers' expected move, not the other way round. On Bumble's take-private by Ithaca Holdings, after a 95% fall from its 2021 IPO, they say a crushed company is easier to rework out of public view and predict a relaunch. For a retiree whose concentrated positions are 35–40% of the portfolio, the advice is simply to pay the capital gains. One host suggests a collar; the other dislikes it.

Trades of the week. These are presented as picks from Lossdog's "agentic" trade pool:

• a naked Nov 103 call in micro crude for about $2.20 on $1,000 of buying power;
• a Meta iron condor at 575/1020, $100 wide, about three times the ~$80 expected move ahead of 10/21 earnings, costing $766 of buying power for a $234 maximum profit;
• an IWM 262/295 skewed strangle for $3.30;
• a one-to-one long M2K, short MES pairs trade, already up 13 handles.

A viewer poll favoured the Meta trade at 48%.

Retail froth. The Citadel Securities figures put retail dollar demand about 25% above the 2021 high, July net buying at 3.2x average, and a record $2.6 trillion of S&P call notional on one May day. A Cboe figure has retail at over 80% of 0DTE volume on its Magnificent 10 index, and OCC volume is up 14.5% year to date. One host reads all this as engagement and liquidity, not a top signal. In their account the 2021 meme episode was too concentrated and temporary, while today's activity is broad. The hosts dismiss Wells Fargo's contrarian sell signal, since the market has only risen since it fired in May.

FICO and credit locks. FICO fell about 25% after mortgage lenders were opened to VantageScore 4.0. One host thinks the roughly $15 saving on a $100–120 credit pull hardly matters. The real gain, in their view, is that VantageScore counts rent history. That leads to a public-service plea to lock credit at Equifax, TransUnion and Experian.

Private-credit gates. The hosts defend funds that cap withdrawals at around 2% a quarter, with 5% caps described as the norm. Their point is that investors knew the money was illiquid when they put it in.

AI debt. This is the segment the hosts frame as most serious. The figures they cite:

• hyperscaler spreads widened from about 50bp to 80bp;
• Oracle's 5-year CDS hit about 203bp, an 18-year high, after S&P cut its rating to BBB-;
• CCC spreads reached about 12%, the highest since 2012;
• the five largest hyperscalers issued $121 billion of bonds last year, against a $28 billion/year average for 2020–24;
• cover ratios fell from nearly 5x to below 2x;
• 78 of 91 hyperscaler bonds issued in 2026 trade at higher yields than they were issued at.

They also cite the IMF's October 13 outlook: a sharp drop in AI investment would cut global GDP by 1% by 2028, and US GDP by 2%. "The bond market doesn't miss," one host says. Neither host calls a top, but both would rather hold Treasuries. They argue that the market has been lifted by AI and that one stumbling AI name could take the rest with it.

The zebra. In the worked example, two in-the-money 93 calls bought against one at-the-money 100 call sold cost $1,371 for about 98 deltas, against $10,000 for the shares. One host stresses the catch. Between 93 and 100 the position loses $2 for every $1 the stock falls, so it is down $671 at 96.50 against $350 on stock, and its maximum loss of $1,371 compares with $700 on shares at 93. Even so, they end up preferring it for capital efficiency. The show closes with a plug for the platform.

The hosts read the day's market as going nowhere: a lot of movement in both directions that netted out near unchanged. Their message to viewers was to trade small and nimbly, sell premium where implied volatility is high, and ignore forecasts, whether from strategists, from analysts or about AI. Tom Sosnoff stayed long bonds against his co-host Scott's bet on lower bonds. The show ended in an unresolved argument over whether a 25% fall in AI stocks during 2027 is a certainty.

The open. Scott and Tony Battista open on a market that doesn't fit together. The Nasdaq is down about 270 (almost 1%) while the S&P is flat, the Dow is up about 400, bonds are up, oil is down, and the VIX is around 15–16. They say that mix should have lifted the Nasdaq. Micron is down $59, to $936 from about $1,050, and AMD is down $21. Apple, up about $5.60, is described as trading opposite the market.

Price targets. The show's question cites consensus S&P forecasts missing in 12 of 14 years since 2012, by 6% on average. Both hosts call annual targets opinion bent by business interest. A strategist calling for a 20% decline would lose the job, and a sell rating on a stock comes only after the damage is done. JPMorgan's revenue miss ($50.9 billion against $51.2 billion) alongside a higher share price is their evidence that traders should "play the expected move" rather than the narrative.

Viewer questions. The hosts call a covered call and a short put at the same strike the same position, with the naked put winning on capital efficiency. One host's working definition of a "synthetic naked" position is any spread whose wings are bought mainly to cut buying power. Width relative to the stock price also counts: past about $15–20 on a $200 stock it is no longer a vertical. A poor man's covered call is described as a 70–80 delta call 100–300 days out, against a 30-delta short call. On weak breadth (36% of stocks above their 50-day average), one host leans contrarian toward beaten-down stocks with high IV. Both call trade management "art, not science", with Tony adjusting around 21 days to expiration. A caller's Merck idea draws an IV rank of 101 but wide markets, so the advice is defined risk. Another caller was flagged under the 390 rule: an average of 390 order entries per day, cancels included, aggregated by tax ID. One host says the rule should be scrapped and points the caller to FINRA.

Scott's trades. Scott lists four trades:

• an Apple November call spread for a $2.49 credit (IVR 49, POP 72), as a mild bet against the market
• an IBM November double ratio for $3.65 (IVR 47, POP 78), effectively a short strangle through earnings
• a bond-futures double ratio (long the 107 call, short two 108s; long the 100 put, short two 99s) for 29 ticks, with a $1,453 maximum profit (IVR 60, POP 80)
• a Micron broken-wing butterfly (1230/1250×2/1300) for a $1 credit, with a $2,100 maximum profit, $2,900 maximum loss and 94% POP. He chose it because a naked ratio on a $1,000 stock tied up too much buying power.

Tom on bonds, banks and IPOs. Tom reports selling bonds at 103.31 and 104 and covering Nasdaq short call spreads near the lows. His deltas are roughly flat, net long bonds and short index futures. He also plugs the trade feed and a "One Lucky Dog" platform said to launch in two weeks, which is a product pitch. On bank earnings, both say bank IV around 20–23% is too low to sell premium. They doubt higher rates matter much this quarter, because bank balance sheets are laddered out over time. If Anthropic listed at a $2 trillion valuation, one host's first bid would be $1.4–1.5 trillion, and neither would buy at the IPO.

Rates and housing. Asked where bonds belong, one host says about 105–105.5, roughly a 50% retracement, with an outside chance of 106. One host argues cash deserves 5% just for existing. The other notes that high risk-free rates pull money out of stocks. The 30-year mortgage rate is 7.4%, its seventh straight weekly rise, against 6.34% a year earlier. The hosts expect house prices, up 38 straight months, to stay high because building costs are elevated and contractors have too much work to negotiate. One host argues a house is a necessity, not an investment, and the other pushes back.

Scalping and IRAs. Size is said not to matter when scalping. It keeps the hosts engaged and won't make anyone rich or poor: a micro future ties up about $2,300 and an E-mini about $23,000. Leveraged ETFs are acceptable for intraday scalps only, and futures are preferred.

Nvidia. Both hosts call the data-center guarantee a circular loop. Nvidia, said to be worth $5.5 trillion at $225, puts up money so that a customer can buy its chips. They see red flags but nothing illegal, and a risk if China answers with unlimited capital.

Put ratios. With the long put at the expected move, the hosts put the probability of profit at 88–94%. They call the trade bullish, not bearish, and say profits should be taken early. On corn options, one host says spreads trade one tick wide but liquidity exists only from about 4–5 a.m. to 1 p.m.

AI collapse. One host calls a 25% decline in AI stocks during 2027 a 100% certainty, given that several names fell that much at least twice in 2026. The other cites Nvidia's roughly 25% one-year expected move as evidence that the call is overconfident. The show ends without resolving it.

Django Davidson, founding partner of Hosking Partners ($8 billion AUM, founded in 2013 by Jeremy Hosking), argues that the capital cycle (invest where supply is shrinking, avoid where capital is flooding in) works better now that higher rates have revived creative destruction. In practice that means steering clear of US mega-cap tech's capex boom and selling memory chips at three to four times replacement cost. He is buying platinum, copper, shipping and corporate Japan instead. Frost puts the fund at 13% a year over ten years against 12.5% for the all-country world index, and 40% against 22% over the last twelve months.

The framework. More capital in an industry means lower returns: one ball-bearing factory earns well, ten do not. Managements adjust late, so timing is "an art not a science." Unlike plain value investing, the framework asks whether a cheap stock still faces excess capacity.

US tech. Davidson says hyperscalers have gone from $200–300 billion of annual free cash flow to negative, and from about 1% of investment-grade issuance in 2023 to a fifth. He calls this investment on a scale last seen in the 1800s railroad boom. He concedes nobody yet knows whether AI is an oligopoly or a commoditised factory business, but China processes three-quarters of tokens at about a fifth of the cost.

How the firm is built. Several "multi-counsellors" share one ~400-stock portfolio covering 20–25 themes. A colleague can add to a fallen position, which gives clients a considered form of averaging in. Small positions open up unloved sectors like tanker shipping.

Winners and mistakes. Memory semis were bought on consolidation from about 20–22 players to three, not on any AI forecast; they are now being sold as capacity comes. European chemicals have disappointed because Davidson missed Chinese supply he "couldn't measure." The position has shifted towards specialty niches trading below replication cost.

Metals and Japan. Platinum capex has fallen from $600 an ounce to $300 on fear of EVs. Copper prices must go "much, much higher" before smaller, costlier mines come on. Gold depends more on demand stories, so he is less keen. In Japan, companies are cutting invested capital, and the fund co-invests with activists.

Valuation and rates. High valuations attract competitors and make managements complacent, as at Kraft Heinz and at Nike, down 85%. The 10–15 years of near-zero rates were an aberration, and normal rates should speed up mean reversion.

Advice. Quoting Hamlet's "to thine own self be true," he says to know your own psychology. Munger lost 50% three times, which Davidson takes as a reason most investors should avoid concentrated portfolios.

The hosts read a flat, low-volatility market a tick off all-time highs: S&P unchanged, VX near 16.9, NASDAQ down 100 to 235 on selling in AMD and Micron. One host was short NASDAQ futures and slightly short crude near $94, and both sensed bond sellers drying up after three months. What they wanted from the viewer was discipline over conviction: risk 1–3% per trade, sell premium in high-IVR names with defined risk, lean contrarian. With volatility this low, they said, earnings and short-premium trades pay less than usual.

Position sizing. Two traders with identical picks take a five-trade losing streak. At 1% risk per trade one ends at 95% of capital, needing 5% to recover; at 10% the other ends at 59%, needing 69%. The hosts did not split. Size is the only way "genius fails", with Long-Term Capital Management in 1998 and an unnamed 2026 AI hedge fund as examples. They dismissed "an edge worth sizing" as perceived edge, conceding only that high, mean-reverting volatility pays premium sellers more for the same delta.

Viewer questions. IVR has no intraday floor or ceiling and resets at the close; readings of 110–140 are selling opportunities. A wheel selling 30-delta puts at 30–40 DTE is sound but bullish, so wrong for a bear market. Earnings trades work best when both broad IV and the name's IVR are high, though the hosts say nobody knows if one is worthwhile. Options on single-stock futures are judged unlikely for lack of volume. The CME sets the same overnight futures margin everywhere, but intraday margin is the broker's choice. Their old firms used 25% of overnight, major brokers 25–50%, and futures-only shops 5–10%. Monthly 25–30-delta QQQ puts are called the best trade of 17–18 years; their research favours 20–24 delta. A Toronto student hears that trading experience sets intern candidates apart, and the hosts hire only interns who trade. On asking for a raise, the advice is to ask in person and split a 20% request between salary and RSUs, which cost the company no new cash. That answer ends in a pitch for Lossdog's pay data.

Hedging with futures. A caller asks about flattening portfolio deltas overnight with index futures. Both hosts call it among the hardest questions in trading, because nobody knows when to lift the hedge. If they hedge at all it is 50% of deltas, unwound the next session. They would rather cut position size, and they scalp futures around a position rather than treat them as a hedge. Rolling a futures position for a $3 debit raises the basis by $3 but leaves P&L unchanged.

Tom's trades of the week. All four were contrarian, defined-risk premium sales that he labels "synthetic" though they are spreads. The first is an Apple November 300/370 strangle with 270/400 wings for about $3 (IVR 53, earnings November 2). He sold a Boeing November 180/170 put spread for $2.40 (IVR 50, earnings October 27) and a McDonald's 225/215 put spread for $1.87 (IVR high 60s, earnings November 4). The last is a TLT jade lizard, short the 77 put and the 80/81 call spread for $1.26 (IVR 60), with no upside risk. Management is to take profit at 50% of max or around 21 DTE, and roll losers to December for a credit.

Tokenized stocks. With Scott Sheridan now on, the hosts split. One asks why anyone needs a tokenized Apple when the listed one trades nearly around the clock. The other argues tokenization gives global access without currency conversion. On the IMF's 1.5x volatility finding, that host blames liquidity: overnight tokenized Apple can be $2 wide against about $0.05 listed. Tokens from different issuers also aren't fungible and may lack dividends or votes. The prediction is no added systemic risk, with tokenized derivatives as the real payoff. A tokenized gold product their old brokerage offered through Paxos about five years ago barely traded.

Tariff refunds. S&P Q3 earnings growth is tracking near 30% on about 12% revenue growth. About $100B of an estimated $166B in tariffs has been refunded since the February Supreme Court ruling. Both hosts say a refund dollar deserves a lower multiple than a sales dollar. They differ on how fast the market notices, and one cites Micron as about 200 points below its post-earnings level.

AI and entry-level jobs. Both reject shielding any sector and want any rule set federally, not state by state as with California's SB 951 60-day notice. They split on scale. One calls the entry-level hit real; the other sees net job creation, having graduated into 20% rates and 10–11% unemployment. One would accept 60 days' notice, arguing that Meta and Google deliberately over-hire and then cull. A caller raises the worry that AI stops children learning to think, and the hosts answer with the calculator precedent.

Long straddles. Both hosts rarely or never buy premium and call liquid options fairly priced by high-frequency market makers. Micron was priced for an $80 earnings move and finished unchanged. One host was short a $10.65 November Micron strangle and bought it back near $7.10. Their advice to the curious is a small straddle in a later expiration, though one host finds current expected moves too narrow to be short premium either.

The hosts read the morning as stress showing up in bonds rather than stocks. Oil is up about $4 near the $92 handle, and 30-year bond futures traded down to 101.06 before reversing to about 102.12. The S&P and Nasdaq open lower but show no downside momentum, so the day is a sell-off with no follow-through. What they want from viewers is mechanical, premium-selling discipline: strikes at the expected move, theta sized to the account, no cheap options sold. On policy they push in two directions. Sosnoff wants markets opened to everyone, politicians included. Sheridan wants guardrails on retirement money and on officials' trading. Tom Sosnoff is long bonds and short both index futures, and says on air that the position "has not worked."

Retail as smart money. The question of the day cites Goldman's estimate of $12 trillion in self-directed accounts. That is about 10% of US equity value and 20% of volume, up from 15% a decade ago, and Citadel reports record retail options premium in June with nearly half of it expiring the same day. The hosts answer that retail is the smart money. One says he would pick anyone in the crowd at their live events over any professional manager. They add that market makers don't need retail for liquidity. They need volume for scale: the high-frequency firms the hosts invest in don't trade SPY because the edge there is a fraction of a penny, and those firms compete with each other for retail flow rather than against it.

Viewer mechanics with Tony Battista. The first hour is mostly strategy questions. A skewed strangle expresses a directional view by placing the unwanted side further out. Battista's example was in euro futures at 112 with IV rank 65: he sold the 111 puts and 114 calls, because the puts cost twice as much as the calls. His call ratio spread buys around a 20 delta at the edge of the expected move and sells two contracts one or two strikes out for at least $1.50–2. Sosnoff takes 50 cents for a higher probability, and both put it near 90%. Short strikes start at the expected move, about a 20–22 delta, 35–45 days out. Sosnoff keeps theta at 0.1–0.3% of net liquidation a day. Other rules: never use a market order on a vertical, keep the same minimum default size for a $10 stock and a $1,000 stock, and prefer a short put to an in-the-money covered call. On 0DTE versus 45 days, Battista runs a blend.

Synthetic stock and a bear case. A synthetic long on a $100 stock is a 90-day call at 5.10 against a put at 4.06. That is roughly a $1.04 debit against $10,000 for shares, the hosts call it a clean stock substitute, and they tie the debit to carrying cost at a 4.24% T-bill rate. From there one host argues index-arbitrage firms are short stock against synthetic longs and earn higher rebates as rates rise. That gives them less reason to buy stock back in the October cycle, which the hosts call a bear-case argument rather than a call.

Battista's trades. He bought a Google 350/360 call spread at $4.98 on IV rank 55, using the October 23 expiry to avoid earnings on October 28, and sold it at $5.98. He also bought an IREN 36/40 call spread, which he calls completely wrong, and a GLD 380/387 diagonal for a $3.63 debit. An Adobe November strangle for $5.50 went unfilled. Sosnoff uses the unfamiliar IREN name to plug the company's coming One Lucky Dog trade-ideas software.

Product segment. With Scott Sheridan in, the hosts demo a correlation map in the Lossdog app. They describe it as plotting more than 9,400 symbols by Pearson correlation to any chosen ticker, recomputed nightly across 229 million pairs, and free. That is product marketing. Asked by a caller, the hosts concede the platform does nothing for an SPX 0DTE scalper.

Debt and the tax code. On $2 trillion a year of new debt, the $40 trillion limit and a 5.67% 30-year yield, Sosnoff says Congress sets the limit and the bond market sets the cost. He argues deficits only seemed harmless while rates fell, and that the bond market, not a stock market carried by a handful of names, is how the world now judges the US. He then argues that a $30 trillion AI asset class pays little tax and that technology can rewrite the tax code. Taxing it at 10% would cut $3 trillion, he says, and he cites 2025 operating losses of $21 billion at OpenAI and $8 billion at Anthropic. Sheridan rejects the arithmetic as taxing market value and says a one-page code just needs the old one scrapped. A caller sides with Sheridan, and the two agree to feed the tax code to Claude after the show.

401(k) alternatives. On the Labor Department's proposed safe harbor, Sheridan wants more choice than "15 crappy funds". He worries about illiquidity and opaque fees, though, so he would drop the accredited-investor rule outside retirement accounts first. Sosnoff calls opening 401(k)s overdue and says competition will lower fees. The two then argue over whether the accredited-investor test still matters in practice.

Presidential trading. On the 21,000 trades in Trump's 2025 disclosure, against 13 for Biden in four years, Sheridan calls the optics disgusting and wants officials in blind trusts. Sosnoff wants every politician, including the Fed chair, trading and betting, short of trading on material non-public information. He predicts the advisers lose 40% in a 20% bear market. Viewer polls: 79% against an accredited-investor restriction and 74% against politicians trading.

The hosts read the session's selloff, with S&P futures down about 52 and Nasdaq about 250, as the first crack in an equity market that has ignored falling bonds. The 10-year sat at 5.28–5.31%, which they called a 24-year high. They are short stock indexes and, in Tom's case, heavily long bonds, and so far that has lost money. Their stated view is that 5% rates are the historical norm and that stocks are "the next shoe to drop". Tom called the move "day one". Their advice was not to pile on: cut strategy risk and size first, and wait for volatility to rise and bonds to keep sliding before calling it a real break.

Open and positions. Tom is back from a seven-day, five-city trip that included a Money Show keynote and a prediction-markets conference. He says he is long bond and note futures at an average near 104 against a price around 101. He is no longer adding, only scalping around the core position, selling near 102.20 and buying back near 102.06. One host expects bonds to stay depressed until political change ends tariffs and the war. That host calls them grossly oversold but concedes they could reach 95.

Active versus passive. Morningstar finds only 25% of active funds beat passive peers over 10 years, and S&P finds 79% of active large-cap funds trailed the index in 2025. Tom argues that "active" funds are passive funds that shuffle holdings to charge about 50 basis points instead of 4–7, with no bearing on price discovery. He says active traders should be benchmarked against a multiple of the risk-free rate, never an index. Scott thinks some funds do more than shuffle and wants to see how they fare in a down market.

Viewer questions. For portfolio margin, cut the 3–7% (undefined-risk) and 0.3–1.5% (defined-risk) buying-power guidelines by about 30%. Six uncorrelated strangles at 5% each is not too concentrated, and 40–50% total is tolerable, but 70% leaves no dry powder. Winners should come off at target even before 21 DTE. The hosts say the market really is driven by four or five mega-caps now. Even so, the equal-weight RSP is smoother but is not what trades. Scott recounts a year-long fight to get naked short calls approved in IRAs at tastytrade; short stock remains barred because it requires borrowing.

Trades of the week. Tom presents four ideas. The first is a skewed euro-futures strangle selling November 112 puts and 114 calls at IVR 70, for about $1,030. The second is a TLT strangle selling 77 puts and 79 calls at IVR 75, for 2.44. The third is an at-the-money SPY 780/775 put debit spread, which was about 1.85 at the record high but is now too expensive. The fourth is an IBM put ladder selling a November 190 put and a December 185 put at IVR 47, about 5.12 combined. He justifies the IBM trade by 15 straight red candles near the 52-week low, and names Boeing as the other laggard.

Second round with Tony. Tony and Scott explain SGOV's lower payout as its 0–3-month bill ladder lagging rising rates. For an in-the-money ZB 103 put at about 70 delta with 16 days left, they would roll to November 102 for a credit or 101 for a small debit, bringing it to about 50 delta. When rolling, check the new month's IV, and close the trade instead if IV rank has collapsed. Tony says his TLT trade, taken on Tom's bond view, is his only posted loser. On preferreds yielding 7–10%, they warn against chasing yield.

Commercial real estate and housing. Office CMBS delinquencies are at 12%, and maturity defaults make up 81% of new ones. Moving a $1M-a-year property from a 4 to a 5 cap rate cuts its value from $25M to $20M. One host thinks return-to-office mandates help; the other says hybrid work permanently shrinks space needs. One sees commercial buys 30–50% off. Mortgages moving from 6.25% to 7.25% push out marginal buyers while locking in owners on 3.5–4% loans. A caller's house-flipping friend reports properties sitting unsold.

Executive pay. The segment cites $1.7B in one-time S&P 500 executive awards, up 50%, with about 450 executives receiving more than 900 awards over two years. All three hosts blame compensation committees for buying past performance at no risk to themselves. They favor a modest base with stock-linked upside: $5M with a path to $40M rather than a guaranteed $30M.

The dollar. The dollar index is above 102 for the first time since April 2025, up from 98.45 on September 10, and EUR/USD hit 1.1161 amid French fiscal worries. Tony thinks the euro's fall outstrips the dollar's strength and would rather buy the euro, at the low end of a roughly 1.10–1.45 range. Another host calls a pairs trade the smarter play. One host expects a Fed hike despite the weak 29,000 jobs report, and both call no hike bearish.

Christmas tree spread. On a $100 stock, buy the 100 call for $6, sell three 110s at $2 and buy two 115s at $1, for a $2 debit with no naked exposure. Max profit is $800 at 110, with break-evens at 102 and 114, versus a $4 call spread capped at $600. One host puts a 45-day pin at roughly 5% and prefers it as an SPX 0DTE shot; the other worries about intraday speed.

Close. Bitcoin fell $2,700, which the hosts take as proof it had risen with the broad market rather than on inflation. The show ends with a plug for the podcast and Lossdog's platform features.

Scott and Tony, with Tom absent, spent the show on a market they found impressive but did not trust: stocks at record highs with no downticks, while bond futures sat near 102 and the 10-year at 5.27%. Neither host claimed to know which side would give. What they wanted from the viewer was to stop forecasting: trade what is in front of them, keep size small, prefer defined risk, sell premium where implied volatility is high (bonds above all), and leave the midterm election out of the decision.

The open. E-mini S&Ps opened up 42 at highs, oil near $88, and bonds at 102.11, down from a 114 handle. One host argues markets rarely crash from all-time highs and tend to drift lower instead. They had judged the market frothy a day earlier and would read a bid in VIX futures (about 17.20) on a flat tape as confirmation. On a viewer's question about who keeps buying, that host says "the bond market never lies" but allows they may be early, comparing the moment to the mortgage excess everyone saw before 2008. Gold, silver and oil are called range-bound vehicles for selling premium. On gold, the warning is against anchoring to the $5,400 high.

Market timing. The question of the day: $1 in the S&P 500 since 1990 became about $40, about $8 without the 25 best days, and nearly $240 without the 25 worst. The hosts separate investing from trading (a one-to-45-day horizon). Investors should scale in, take an employer match, and hold for decades. Traders should see the violent days as their best opportunities. Skipping $5 a day of coffee, they say, funds about $1,500 a year, or a small daily vertical spread.

Viewer questions, first round. They endorse a November 98/108 ZB strangle at an IVR near 80, preferring ZB to TLT. A near-retiree who cannot watch the market is pointed to roughly $10-wide SPY verticals, risking about $700 to collect $300, or iron condors if neutral. An agentic bot could follow mechanical rules, they say, but their objection is that the trader stops being engaged; Lossdog's own AI is said to target risk management, a product claim. Both call the idea that market makers price weekend decay into Friday "bullshit": no single firm sets prices, and if it were true everyone would trade it. Past research is cited saying weekly selling collects about one extra week of premium over 45-day trades, with a much choppier P&L. A viewer who paid 11% of a 7.8% Q3 gain in fees is told to keep their mechanics and ask the broker for a lower rate.

Trades of the week. Scott's trades: a SpaceX "Batman" double ratio for October 30, before November 3 earnings, at a $2.20 credit with a 77% probability of profit. A short QQQ call spread at an IVR of 44 and a 75% probability of profit. A Meta 845/850 call ratio at a $5.75 credit, outside a roughly $65 expected move. A November ZB 99/97 put ratio at a $250 credit with a $2,250 maximum and a 90% probability of profit, which works if volatility simply contracts. Viewers voted QQQ 32%, ZB 30%, Meta 22%, SpaceX 16%.

Reading the chain. A segment walks through the Tasty SPX chain. The November 4 series showed an IVX of 15.3 and a ±$226.77 expected move. The point is that the platform computes one standard deviation for you, and strikes outside it are where a premium seller looks. Tony's account-delta guide is 150–300 deltas per $100,000, with theta about matching delta, called "art, not science." Tony avoids plain debit spreads because they need a quick move. Instead he buys deeper in-the-money back-month options against short front weeklies, aiming to capture 70–80% of a move.

Midterms. The $226 expected move is about 2.7%, and the hosts see that pricing as time, not risk. They expect IV to expand into a known event, which leaves no edge in trading it early. A VIX near 12 would have worried them; 17 does not. They treat a JPMorgan strategist's call for higher VIX as one opinion and point out that almost nobody would have forecast record highs given everything listed: war with Iran, Hormuz closures, $100 oil, 102 bonds.

Bitcoin. At $86,000, up from about $60,000, Bitcoin is in their view rising with everything else, not as an inflation hedge. They dismiss Grayscale's correlation figures and expect it to fall if stocks do. They note AI cloud work earning about $940 per megawatt-hour against $179 for mining. One host still expects a rate hike.

Covered strangles. Shares bought at $100 with a 105 call sold at $1.80 and a 95 put at $1.40 lift max profit from $680 to $820. Below 95 the trader owns 200 shares, losing $1,180 at 90 against $820. Since a covered call is already a synthetic short put, the hosts call this two short puts and favor naked puts for capital efficiency. At the close, with S&Ps up 56, Tony admits he could not bring himself to sell the short-dated put that would have been a home run.

With Tom Sosnoff away, Scott Sheridan and Tony Battista spent the Monday show waiting for the bond market to drag stocks down. It never did. Bonds sat near their lows around 102 while E-mini S&Ps climbed to up 32 handles by the close of the broadcast. Their view was that a rally carried by four AI stocks, against weak bonds and mortgage rates back above 7%, is narrower and more fragile than the index level suggests. What they wanted from viewers was not a call to get bearish. They wanted viewers to understand what the index has become, take what the market offers mechanically, and keep size and capital use in check.

Open and the bond question. The hosts opened by saying a $30 overnight S&P range is normal for current implied volatility, after daily ranges of about 60 handles the week before. Bonds were down 14 ticks at 102-10. One host holds that "the bond market never lies", is leaning short, and says they would sell futures if not on air. The other shares the puzzlement but says the rally makes them take their hands off the button.

Viewer mechanics. A viewer's employer caps trading at 50 transactions a quarter. The hosts call this overly restrictive, since counting each open and close leaves about eight round trips a month, and half-jokingly suggest a friendlier firm. On estimating price moves, they point to the expected move derived from implied volatility. Micron, at about $1,060 with IV near 50, implies roughly $15 for the day and $400–500 over a year. Trend, by contrast, they say no chart can reliably tell you. A position's delta at entry should match the trader's outlook.

Stock splits. Bank of America reports that split stocks outperform over the following 12 months. The hosts call a split a change in packaging, doubt the finding given a bull-market sample and a loose definition of "outperform", and note companies can time a split to soften a missed quarter. Their substantive point is that a split compresses implied volatility. Tesla went from a premium seller's best name to its worst after its split.

Rolls, wings and rules. One host adjusts a 20-delta strangle once it drifts to plus or minus 15 deltas, rolling the untested side until the whole position carries five to seven deltas against the move. A 20-delta short reaching 30–35 needs action; at 40 it was left too long. They stress that 21 DTE is a checkpoint for untouched positions, not a reason to wait before managing. For broken-wing butterflies the wings are twice the body width. They explain the 390 rule: averaging 390 option orders a day gets a retail account tagged professional. In their years running tastytrade, two people ever violated it. Overnight 23-hour trading neither helps nor hurts liquidity, they say, but the fills are poor.

Tom's trades. Tom's list was a short put in bond futures (99 put, IVR 95, POP 80), a euro futures short put (IVR 53, POP 82), a Microsoft call spread before its November 4 earnings, and an Oracle short put. The critic calls the $1.65 Microsoft credit timid and wants about a third of the strike width. The dog pound favoured the Oracle put at 35%.

Four stocks, 496 passengers. Nvidia, Apple, Micron and AMD account for about half of the S&P's ~12% year-to-date gain. Micron is up ~285% and AMD ~188%. Only about half of the index's members are up for the year, and ~75% fell in September while the index gained 0.25%. Since August 13 the S&P is down 0.7%, small caps 7.5% and midcaps 6.8%. One host, usually dismissive of "this time is different", concedes that indices driven by under 1% of their members may be. The two differ on whether this should change anything. One suggests trading smaller. The other says only that the trader should know the makeup has changed. Both doubt an index fund now buys real diversification.

Paramount's debt. The $52 billion Warner Bros. Discovery financing paid up to 9.1% and drew ~$100 billion in orders. Its 8-year notes still fell to ~96 cents on day one. Existing unsecured 6.875% 2036 bonds slid to 79 (a 10.4% yield) after being pushed behind the new debt, which one host calls legal but "crappy". An IPO, they note, is unavailable to a listed company. Alongside three IPOs pulled the previous week, they read this as lenders saying "pay me". They later corrected mortgage rates to about 7⅜%.

VIX and choosing underlyings. Both call the VIX the worst retail product ever created. One allows only a VIX covered call. A caller with 30 years of experience who sorts by IVR is told to take liquidity next, judged by option bid-ask width, and to favour names that "fit like a glove".

Debt versus investing. The hosts stand by earlier advice that drew pushback from viewers: moving 21% card debt to a 7–10% secured loan is prudent if the borrower will repay it. They acknowledge that many people have no such option.

Box spreads. Buying an SPX box, meaning the call spread and put spread on the same strikes, lends cash at a little over the one-year rate. Selling one borrows at roughly 4.5% by one host's estimate, against the 9–10% a broker might charge. They prefer SPX because it is European-style and Section 1256 (60/40). They warn against legging in or using a box for short-term money. The show closed with plugs for the Lossdog platform's features and podcast.

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, bearish on bonds since 2020, tells Frost he has begun buying long-duration US debt. His view is that bonds are no longer expensive, though not cheap: yields in the mid-5s now price in strong growth and sticky inflation. He plans to scale in at mid-5s, high-5s and 6%, hedged to begin with through long-term TIPS. He accepts that yields could rise further first.

Why value has returned. Average US bond yield and modified duration both sit near 5.5, against 2% and 7 in 2020. A loss now takes a full 1% move in yields rather than about 30bp. Bianco anchors fair yields to nominal GDP. Inflation is stuck near 3% because goods deflation of about -0.5% a year after China joined the WTO has become roughly +2% under deglobalization, tariffs and war, and growth is strong, with US crude demand topping 20 million barrels a day.

The Fed's credibility problem. With the 10-year at 5.3% and the 30-year near 5.7% as of recording, Bianco says the recent move is not disorderly yet but may not be over. During the cutting cycle that began in September 2024, the Fed cut 1.75% while the 10-year rose 1.3%, which he calls a first in 50-plus years. A single hike, taking back 1.25%, has not convinced the market. If the Fed skips the October meeting because the midterms are a week later, he warns, that becomes a political decision, and more such decisions could follow in December and 2027. He argues the unanimous 12–0 hike vote was a mistake: a 7–5 split would have let Chair Warsh deflect pressure from President Trump.

Treasury and foreign markets. Bianco reads Treasury Secretary Bessent's yen intervention and the larger-than-expected $6 billion buyback, funded with bills, as attempts to cap long yields. He thinks Bessent is being directed by a president who claims unmatched expertise on rates, and that "I am the house" dared the market to push back. Higher yields in Europe and Japan pull US yields up with them: France is weighed down by Mélenchon's default talk and an energy squeeze, and Japan has 3%-plus yields, its highest in 30 years.

Why stocks shrugged. About 50 AI stocks make up 45–48% of the S&P 500. In his view they trade on growth potential and are less rate-sensitive than assumed, while the other 450 ride Q3 growth estimates above 3%. Retail trading, still above 20% of volume, adds short-termism.

Debt, gold and crypto. Bianco thinks debt monetization is off the table while inflation runs near 3%, because it would be inflationary. Total US debt is 364% of GDP against 362% in 2006, so he sees the shift toward government debt as the concern rather than the level: elevated blood pressure, not a heart attack. He likes gold's fundamentals but says speculative trading has made it volatile. He is bullish on crypto only if it builds an alternative system for some 2 billion people with unstable currencies, which is why he welcomed the failure of the Clarity Act.

Portfolio and closing advice. He expects returns of 4% from cash, 5% from bonds and 6% from stocks, so 60/40 still works, with bonds held for yield rather than as a hedge. His parting advice is that "a bear market is time, not price": recovery took 13 years after 2000 but 5 months in 2020. His biggest current worry is a shortage of refined products as refineries burn.

The day's thesis, stated early and repeated through the show: the market is going nowhere but doing it violently, so stay small, trade defined risk, and don't marry a position. Overnight futures swung from up 20-odd points to an 11-handle range that touched the prior day's highs before round-tripping; bonds, credit and volatility all told a more alarming story than the headline index levels did, and both hosts kept circling back to "be nimble" as the only usable instruction for the day.

A running bond bet frames the bond story. The hosts have a standing wager — one took "bonds hit 100 before 115," the other the reverse — and 30-year bonds trading at 101-31 overnight forced a live, crowd-sourced ruling (put to viewer vote, roughly 60/40, with the loser conceding before the other host, absent from the show, could weigh in). The number matters because bonds are down 14% since late June, which both hosts agree is not yet a 20%-style "crash" but is already serious; one is long, betting on a short squeeze that he expects to ultimately fail given no natural buyer has emerged.

Micron's earnings reaction becomes a lesson in discipline. Micron's post-earnings move landed inside the options market's implied range even though the stock swung double digits, and both hosts admit they second-guessed a wide, mechanical options trade the market was all but telling them to make, instead over-thinking it and missing a "home run." The recurring moral — "the option market never lies," take the emotion out, trade the number not the narrative — returns later as a lens for reading Fed inflation prints.

The credit-card question draws a genuine split. Delinquencies at 13% (a 15-year high) on $1.3 trillion in balances, with average rates above 21%, prompts one host to call the rate "criminal" and worry aloud about a generation that can't afford homes but spends freely on luxuries; the other defends issuers' pricing as a necessary response to default risk, while agreeing undisciplined borrowing is the real problem. Both converge on the same remedy: negotiate the rate down, use a balance-transfer offer, or draw on home equity rather than simply absorbing 21%.

A long run of dog-pound questions covers the day's options mechanics. Topics include why probability-of-profit shouldn't feed a Kelly-criterion-style position-sizing formula (stick to 1-10% of account risk instead); a preference for the iron condor over the iron fly on SPX 0DTE, with a caution against trading purely for small, frequent wins; rolling short puts up toward at-the-money as a stock rallies (accepted, with the real risk being in the delta you take on, not the act of rolling); and a losing VST put that should be rolled out and down into earnings rather than defended at the current strike. A separate question on whether VIX is "high enough" for a 45-day SPX strangle gets a size-first answer: only with a large enough account, and staying outside the expected move given current skittishness. On XSP iron condors, the preference is for wider wings since the smaller product already caps capital risk.

Favorite trades of the week stay small and mostly bullish-leaning. One host details a TLT call-spread-plus-naked-put structure (bought for roughly a $0.48 debit, bullish on bonds before they fell further), a Tesla put ratio ahead of October 16 expiration avoiding the October 28 earnings date, a delta-neutral November Adobe strangle around 20-delta given no earnings in that cycle, and short 15-17 delta November puts in Oracle, which he called a "participation" trade with an 80% probability of profit.

Aura's shelved IPO becomes the day's sharpest editorial moment. With Aura joining Haltech and Bamboo in postponing listings, one host calls it a "giant red flag" and faults underwriters rather than the CEO, noting the deal let private equity sell 35 of 50 million offered shares — a structure he says signals that insiders themselves didn't want to stay in. He dismisses the official explanation (AI valuation reassessment, yields, geopolitics) as cover for bankers chasing fees regardless of demand.

A caller's question tees up the inflation and Fed segment. Cooler August core PCE (2.0%) cut rate-hike odds from roughly 70% to 40%, even as ADP showed private payrolls up 90,000. Both hosts are skeptical that a food-and-energy-excluded gauge reflects what people actually pay, and are more persuaded by the bond market's own signal — yields searching for direction even as a Fed official's dovish framing moves the print.

Geopolitical and valuation risk gets confronted directly. Asked whether 27 record highs and a mid-teens VIX amid North Korea's nuclear buildup, the Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars, and near two-decade-high yields reflect sound judgment or complacency, one host says the market is "climbing a wall of worry" and trading only the price in front of it; the other agrees but adds he still expects an eventual, unpredictable break and is already running lower-risk strategies than usual as insurance, favoring diversification across products so no single market's swings distort the overall picture.

Two callers prompt risk-management advice. One, running strangles and straddles using about half his buying power, is advised to size for a downside move — not an upside one — and to spend a small slice of collected premium (3-5%) on cheap, short-dated out-of-the-money puts to cap tail risk rather than trying to formally quantify it. A second caller's push for brokers to let retail algo signals auto-trade directly is acknowledged as technically possible but gated by compliance, not product limitations.

The show closes by dismissing double calendar spreads as needless complexity. Selling a near-term strangle against a longer-dated one can't be cleanly modeled because the back-month's eventual implied volatility is unknown, and both hosts find the structure too slow and analysis-prone; a single calendar, diagonal, or plain iron condor is preferred, especially for a trader just getting comfortable with multi-leg options.

The hosts spend the show arguing that the day's biggest stories — an AI model held back, a historic bond breakdown, a sky-high Bitcoin forecast, and a thin equity risk premium — are mostly noise to be read for opportunity or ignored, while the one real catalyst, Micron's earnings after the close, is treated as a priced-for-perfection setup where the market's own expected move looks too small. Equities drift to session highs (S&P up around 46, Nasdaq up over 240) even as bonds keep making fresh lows, a divergence the hosts repeatedly flag without resolving.

The open: bonds diverge from stocks, and the AI question of the day. With the Nasdaq higher and the S&P recovering from a weaker open, one host keeps pointing to bonds — not the equity tape — as the real signal, noting a rally in the ten-year that doesn't fit the "buy the dip" pattern he expects to keep failing eventually. The question-of-the-day segment covers Open AI's decision not to release its newest model after internal testing found it didn't act "in accordance with human wishes." One host reads this as image management ahead of an IPO — good optics, no real constraint — likening it to a parent extending a curfew by fifteen minutes. The other calls blanket dismissal of AI risk "ignorant," arguing that bad actors get more dangerous with better tools, drawing a parallel to social media's effect on kids, but he also opposes government regulation since enforcement wouldn't reach outside the US. A dog-pound poll splits close to evenly: 40% no regulation needed, 32% government regulation, 28% mixed or undecided.

Bonds: a once-in-a-generation move treated as opportunity. Callers ask about the unprecedented bond action — TLT and ZB at levels not seen since the early 2000s. The hosts' answer is consistent: a move "you've never seen before" is just your personal multi-standard-deviation event, and the job is to find the two-sided opportunity in it rather than freeze. One describes selling the 100-strike ZB November put for 54-55 ticks at roughly 80-90% modeled probability of success; the other bought a TLT call spread while selling a naked put — opposite-looking trades united by the same logic of selling into elevated volatility.

Viewer mail: sizing, scalping, and a CME rule change. On position sizing, both hosts agree conviction can justify leaning in, but only in small increments — a one-lot should become a two-lot, not a ten-lot. On futures scalping, the advice is to stop treating an arbitrary dollar target as a reason to hold a loser hoping to "get back to even," and to scale out of winners across multiple contracts rather than trying to pick a top. A trader asking about MEES put ratio spreads at 90 days learns the micro contract no longer lists expirations that far out because the CME shortened its listing calendar in June; the suggested workaround is simply using the longest-dated expiration available, around 80 days. A proposed car-mileage-rollback trade is waved off as a real but untradeable macro theme, too diffuse and far out to express as a position. A caller's SoFi covered-call question becomes a short explainer on selecting strikes near the 30-delta expected move, and a separate answer warns against calendar spreads across futures months that don't represent the same underlying contract.

A live demo of the "Market Map" feature — a product segment, not analysis. The hosts walk through a new tool built from machine-learning analysis of SEC filings, which maps relationships between roughly 5,000 companies instead of sorting them into standard sectors, and can be queried via an embedded AI chat or cross-referenced against a user's uploaded brokerage portfolio. It is presented entirely as a platform feature, with no trading content attached.

A call-in from Tom Sosnoff covers his existing Nike position (November $35 calls, cost basis near $2.10 against a $35.92 stock) without much conviction on an earnings trade, and he flags that Micron options were expensive and hard to fill when trading it naked ahead of earnings.

Lost Dog's four trades of the week, all placed ahead of earnings, are a Tesla double ratio "Batman" trade (selling calls and puts around a core long call/put, for a $3.15 credit, 83% probability of profit), a Reddit short strangle (selling the 170 call and 125 put, for a $3.62 credit at 39% IVR and 73% probability of profit), a ZB put ratio (buying the 99 put and selling two 97 puts for 10 ticks, 98% IVR and 94% probability of profit), and a Palantir call ratio (buying the 205 call, selling two 210 calls for a $1.73 credit, 49% IVR and 87% probability of profit).

The thin equity risk premium gets dismissed as a non-trade. With the S&P's earnings yield near 3.8% against a 10-year yield of 5.2% — a roughly 26 P/E versus an 18-19 historical average — the hosts argue this matters only to fundamental, long-horizon investors, not to their own trading, and that a stretched valuation "can stay like this for a long time" without a trigger.

Bitcoin's $400,000 target is treated as promotion, not forecast. The hosts calculate that figure would value Bitcoin above $8 trillion, more than one-and-a-half times Nvidia's market capitalization, versus Bitcoin's actual 33.6% historical annual growth rate and a prior Armstrong forecast of $1 million already cut by 60%. They note Polymarket prices only a 1% chance of Bitcoin even reaching $200,000 by 2027.

Closing mechanics segments cover reading liquidity on four-legged SPX spreads (delta-neutral spreads fill easily; directional ones move with the index) and a call ratio backspread explainer: selling one at-the-money option and buying two further out, which trades a defined "valley of death" loss zone for theoretically unlimited upside if the stock makes a large move — a trade both hosts say they'd never personally put on.

A choppy, directionless session — S&P flat to lower, NASDAQ firm on AI-adjacent strength, the Russell 2000 the day's clear laggard — sets up a show built around one idea: with bond implied volatility running roughly three times stock volatility, the week's opportunity is selling premium in bonds and staying disciplined about buying power, not reading macro headlines on AI risk, rate spikes or founder control as trading signals.

Founder control. The open takes up Alphabet founders Page and Brin holding 52.7% voting control on under 12% ownership — roughly $500 billion of Alphabet's $4.19 trillion market cap — a dual-class structure Tom says is set at the IPO or private-equity stage and is common across many public companies, Meta included. Tom argues it's a fair price for the capital a founder's track record commands and says he'd want the same protection himself, though decaying as the stake falls below the control threshold. Scott takes the investor's side: he'd never grant open-ended control, calling a shrinking stake paired with fixed control a structural misalignment.

Viewer mailbag. Quick explainers follow: an inverted yield curve (short rates above long) is rare, recession-adjacent, and hurts banks that borrow short and lend long; two similarly priced stocks with the same IV rank can carry different extrinsic value because raw implied volatility, not IV rank, sets premium; gold and rates are called non-correlated for 15-20 years despite this year's simultaneous gold selloff and rate spike, with Tom trading the two independently; and no trade is ever placed around a looming tax bill.

No charts, ever. Asked how they pick trade levels without a price target, both hosts say they never use one, deciding off the option chain, IV rank, liquidity and the day's expected move, then staying fluid. Neither uses charts — a habit from the trading floor; they built the original ThinkorSwim without a charting package for the same reason, adding one only after customer demand, and still don't use it themselves.

AI's two risks. Asked about AI causing societal havoc, Scott says he isn't worried about the technology or its misuse so much as the principal risk in the trillions of capital now concentrated in AI stocks; Tom calls that naive and predicts Scott will regret it within a year. Later, discussing Nvidia's new platform to stop AI agents escaping their sandboxes — launched after breaches at Hugging Face and an Australian government agency led OpenAI to pause training and prompted lawmakers to float a federal kill switch — both hosts say the question is outside their expertise, leaning toward "growing pains" without conviction. A caller who works as an engineer rejects any kill switch outright, favoring industry regulation over a government shutoff.

Buying power discipline. A caller running an all-cash, naked-put portfolio on blue-chip tech at 50-80% buying power on portfolio margin is told to keep the strategy but cap an all-short-puts PM account at 40-50%, the top of Tom's own range. Buying stock and selling calls against it carries the same risk graph as the naked puts with a lower probability of profit, so there's no need to own shares at all.

Trades and a product pitch. Scott runs four trades: a short 99 put in bonds (IV rank 85, 82% probability of profit, $844 credit); an Apple October pre-earnings call spread not to chase; an SLV double-ratio ("Batman") spread for a $1.15 credit; and a Costco put ratio with a 93% probability of profit, offering a broken-wing version for anyone uncomfortable with the naked downside. Between trades, the hosts pitch Market Map, a free AI-driven tool mapping relationships among 5,000-plus listed companies from over a million notes drawn from 10-Ks — a described feature, not a demonstrated result.

Bonds are the trade. Tony frames the day around the 10-year yield at 5.25%, up 125 basis points in a few months to a 19-year high; the nearest comparison, the 2013 taper tantrum, saw stocks fall 6% then rally 15% the same year — proof, both hosts say, that directional macro calls are close to useless. The number that matters: bond IV rank near 87 against roughly 29 in the S&P, about three times the premium-selling opportunity. Follow-up calls cover mechanics — collecting about a third of spread width in credit for a directional trade, less for a neutral one, with a 20% floor — and a reminder that "butterfly" and "ratio spread" name option payoff structures, not chart patterns.

Small caps. The Russell 2000 is down 4% over the past month against roughly 1% in the S&P and nearly 3% in the NASDAQ. Its correlation to the 10-year yield is about five times the NASDAQ 100's (roughly 0.5 versus 0.1): small-cap companies borrow at higher rates to fund growth, while NASDAQ's largest names sit on cash piles that now earn more as rates rise.

Managing a losing zero-DTE trade. The show closes on the title's question: an iron condor sold near the open stays inside its expected range, but a fast intraday rally puts the call side underwater. The rule is to never add contracts, since the position is already at its intended size; instead roll the losing spread closer to cut delta, or hold if the move reads as a momentary blip. There's no single right answer, both hosts agree — only the wrong one of doubling down.

This is a risk-off Monday in which nearly everything is down at once — stocks, gold, silver, and especially bonds — and the hosts spend the show arguing that the bond market's yield spike, not the stock selloff, is the real story. They end up defending a trillion-dollar year of stock buybacks as rational rather than lazy, framing surging Treasury yields as both a genuine economic threat and, paradoxically, a rare buying opportunity in bonds themselves, while walking through a long run of viewer and caller questions on options mechanics.

The open. With the S&P and NASDAQ down and gold and silver off roughly 3.5–5%, Tom describes his own book: short NASDAQ, long bonds and notes, deltas roughly offsetting. He and Scott have a running bet on whether bonds trade to the "100 handle," and by air time it's already happening faster than either expected, with notes trading into the 103 range. Tom flags Wednesday's Micron earnings (expected move about $200) and Meta's roughly $100 expected move into November as the week's key catalysts, alongside a missed attempt to buy gold under $4,200 overnight.

Question of the day: are buybacks an admission of failure? Tom argues no — with S&P 500 buybacks pacing over $1 trillion in 2026 and Nvidia alone lifting its authorization by $150 billion to $235 billion, companies buy back stock because growth investors don't want dividends and good acquisition targets are scarce and often overpriced. He calls it the easiest and safest use of excess cash, though he adds that IBM and General Motors have bought back stock for 80 years without it reliably working, and Costco's occasional special dividend shows there is an alternative.

Mechanics from the dog pound. Viewer questions cover: no difference in fills across brokerages for roll trades if the platform supports rolling; strangles should always be entered as one trade, not legged, since legging risks small gains and large losses ("eat like a bird, poop like an elephant"); positions should be sized off expected move and delta, not price targets, which Tom calls "kind of a joke"; zero-DTE strangles not working should close by 11:00 a.m. Central, after which risk rises sharply; and with IVR at zero, the hosts favor directional trades over premium selling.

The Lost Dog feature of the week is a straightforward product pitch: a new interactive video sandbox under the platform's Learn tab that lets users manipulate price, volatility, time and strikes for each strategy video, plus a newly relaunched "DogAI" tool, both described as free additions to the Lost Dog software.

More viewer questions and Tom's trades. On a range-bound SPX, Tom suggests selling premium further out in time, just outside the range; a beginner's 45-DTE, $10-wide XSP iron condor plan is validated as "by the book." Tom's own trades: short EUR/USD (6E) 113 puts, a contrarian play after the euro fell 10 of 12 days; a November Micron iron condor (short the 800/790 put spread) sized to Wednesday's earnings; a similar Meta iron condor; and a GLD trade — short puts against a call spread, an 80% probability-of-profit position — entered into gold's roughly 3.5% selloff.

Caller Chuck describes a large one-day options loss in MU amid markets three to four dollars wide, forcing him into long stock near $198. The hosts disagree on the fix: Tom would sell shares to flatten delta and hold to expiration, while Scott would look to exit the position sooner.

Scott's arrival brings a tangent on buyback scale — a query to Claude on how many U.S. companies are worth Nvidia's $235 billion authorization turns into a debate over whether Nvidia should instead diversify, which Tom dismisses as harder than it sounds.

Geopolitics gets treated as background noise: the hosts call the U.S.-China summit's two-month tariff truce a non-event, with no chip deal and no delivered soybean purchases, and name the "Panda Express" FedEx flight for the two zoo pandas the day's real highlight. Tom calls Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent incompetent and dishonest, and both expect volatility to build into the midterms.

Callers round out the middle of the show: Loki asks about near-par bond yields, drawing the "extreme overbought/oversold setup" answer, with a partial rotation into 5%-plus risk-free yield suggested over abandoning stocks; Sean's question on VIX as a fear gauge gets agreement, though near 16–18 it isn't historically elevated; Barat on mechanical stop rules is told the optimal stop is roughly 2x the credit received, but the edge over doing nothing is "tiny"; and new trader Bobby, learning via AI, is told this may be the best era yet to learn, given free content and AI explanation, though screen time still matters most.

The Treasury yield discussion is the show's central thread: the 10-year hit roughly 5.25%, its highest level since an unnamed conflict began and up from under 4% beforehand. Tom insists the bond market itself is the problem, not merely anticipating one, and that it now functions as the real measure of the economy's health, ahead of stocks. Consumer inflation expectations have risen to 4.6%, and the hosts float the possibility of a half-point Fed hike in November.

Bitcoin's dominance fell below 60% of crypto market value as altcoins including Stellar and Solana rallied; the hosts attribute this partly to Bitcoin's own earlier pullback creating room for rotation, with Tom staying long crypto through the recent dip.

Closing questions cover why a trader would choose a broken wing butterfly (defined risk, capital efficiency) over a ratio spread (higher probability of profit, unlimited risk); a reiterated skepticism toward stop-losses generally, including for 0DTE and weekly positions, where Tom argues smaller sizing matters more than stops; and brief, uncommitted takes on the Paramount-Warner Brothers merger and on flipping from long to short when a thesis changes.