For episode 1001, founder Kirill Eremenko hosts and Jon Krohn, the usual host, is the guest. Krohn's position by the end is a techno-optimist one: AI has erased the technical moat he spent 20 years building, but that makes skilled engineers more valuable; even an AI bubble would leave lasting infrastructure; the real business opportunity is wiring AI into actual workflows and data; and whether AI makes people's lives calmer or more frantic is, for now, up to each individual.
From neuroscience to finance and back. Krohn studied neuroscience at Oxford on a full scholarship, drawn by how the mind emerges from physics and chemistry, and moved into massively parallel computational statistics and machine learning there, with a NeurIPS paper in 2010. He says he did this work professionally until a few months before recording, when Claude began doing it better than him. After the PhD in 2012 he spent 2 years at a New York hedge fund, taken for the money, and now regrets leaving academia and its community. He is edging back: supervising a University of Auckland PhD on AI in clinical settings, lecturing at NYU and Columbia, and co-writing a book on agentic AI with Ed Donner.
What AGI requires. Asked whether AGI is judged by outcomes or needs something brain-like, Krohn starts from Google DeepMind's five levels of AGI, covered in his episode 748, which rank depth by the share of humans a system outperforms, and adds breadth. On depth, AI already rivals many people at computer-based work like coding and writing; on breadth, physical-world competence is years off, which he says explains the very large world-model seed rounds such as Yann LeCun's AMI and Fei-Fei Li's company. He sees no obvious mechanism for machine consciousness and no reason AGI would need it. Artificial neurons are a drastically simplified model of biological ones, and brain structures can inspire designs, but he argues silicon scales and moves at speeds brains cannot. Asked whether humans are just predicting the next token, he says fast, automatic speech and skills like experienced driving resemble it, and reasoning models' hidden thinking resembles deliberate slow thought, but the mechanisms differ entirely; prediction is simply central to any agent navigating the world.
Bubble or not. Pointing to his episode 974, Krohn argues that whether or not AI is a bubble, society wins: railway and dot-com busts ruined investors but left rails and fibre that powered later growth. He says he avoids individual stocks and stays diversified, and that market prices aggregate crowd judgement, so he would bet this is probably not a bubble, unlike ICOs and NFTs. To Eremenko's point, which Eremenko attributes to Andrej Karpathy, that scaling is yielding diminishing returns, Krohn answers that chips like Nvidia's GPUs or Amazon's Trainium and Inferentia, though tuned for Transformers, still serve any parallel matrix multiplication, so post-Transformer candidates such as Mamba or Pathway's Baby Dragon Hatchling (episode 929) will be designed to run on them. Jevons paradox, he says, means cheaper intelligence raises total compute demand, and more inference-time computation needs data centers too; he hopes AI-aided plasma control speeds commercial fusion.
Consulting and automation. He describes Y Carrot, his consulting firm founded a little over a year earlier: about eight people, US-based consultants with graduate technical degrees, a weekly half-hour cadence and a working prototype usually by week two, with a $50,000 minimum engagement copied from a former guest. He says the most valuable projects fully automate a repeated workflow, and that several clients now get in minutes what took weeks, with AI also doing the cross-checking more cheaply than people. In his telling no deployment has cost jobs so far, because freed time moves people to higher-value work.
Choosing projects and why they fail. For clients unsure where to start, he lists projects in a spreadsheet and scores reach, impact, confidence and effort (RICE), with effort as the denominator, crediting product managers and noting Dell's John Roese described cutting about 800 ideas to a dozen or so. The scores must estimate production, not prototype, and should come from workflow users plus technical staff rather than executives. Citing MIT NANDA's 95% figure while noting it has been debunked as an exact number, he says the top failure is missing enterprise data behind a capability a CEO saw in ChatGPT; Eremenko adds missing pipelines, his "Ferrari needs a highway". Krohn notes data engineering is itself being automated, citing a recent guest's company.
After pure SaaS. He argues pure SaaS's 80% margins break down when Claude Code can replicate the software, so durable value lies in forward-deployed or consultative models: Palantir engineers embedded full-time at a client like a police department, now copied by Anthropic and OpenAI, and firms like Unframe that tailor a limited set of products to each enterprise.
Always-on lives. Eremenko asks whether AI will make people happier, citing Christopher Nolan's flip phone and printed emails. Krohn says he envies that and misses distraction-free study with a paper calculus textbook; a phone-free Memorial Day weekend meant missing a Kyunghyun Cho lecture a short walk away. He argues the technology already exists to build an agent that acts as a Nolan-style assistant, phoning only about what matters, though it takes time and tolerance for mistakes. He hopes access to such agents might one day be guaranteed like health care, but says for now it is up to each person.