His Pokémon Index has fired its crash warning signal. The index tracks ~1,000 of the most popular and liquid Pokémon cards, and last week it fell nearly -20% in a single week, the one event he was watching for. He treats Pokémon cards as this cycle's NFTs: a hyped risk-on asset whose collapse in 2021 gave roughly a 3-month heads-up before the S&P 500 fell (NFTs remain ~-99% from highs).
Stocks get about three more bullish months, then a meltdown. His forecast is a strong November, December and possibly January, including a short, euphoric Santa rally, ending the blow-off top running since ~June 2025, with the crash starting ~January or February 2027. This rests on markets following the 2021 pattern; he gives the lead as ~3 months in the post and 2–3 months in the audio, and says it can only be confirmed in hindsight.
Damage in the card market is reaching real people. In the audio he plays clips of a collector saying they were scammed out of $660,000 buying a card and a finance worker describing vendor illiquidity and market compression. He reads this as an early domino effect, offered as anecdote, not measured data.
He stays positioned in recession-resistant assets and regional banks. He says regional banks have performed exceptionally well and that his StockTok ETF and StockTok ETF 2.0 baskets were doubling and tripling the S&P 500's performance despite last week's volatility. He expects good individual stocks in the coming weeks despite the warning.
It is too early to call a bear market either way. He says he will announce clearly, and say he is selling everything, if he thinks one is starting, as he says he did on December 18th or 19th of 2024, before the short technical bear market of early 2025. By his definition one needs price down 20% from the highs and held for over two months, so neither "bear market" nor "buy the dip" calls are justified yet.
He does not buy while indexes trend down with VIX above 21. He calls dip buying and DCA bad long-term habits, says he halts all buying under those conditions, and credits this rule with keeping his portfolio out of bear markets. He notes all bear markets start with an initial drop, so this one may yet become one.
His own picks hitting highs argues against a true bear market. Xometry, a stock he bought, hit another all-time high and sits over 60% in profit. GigaCloud Technology rose during the selloff, 15% per the post and about 10% per the audio, though he concedes it was on earnings and retraced half the next day. His inference is that a real bear market would not let such stocks run.
AI may simply be resetting to reality. He speculates the AI sector could be "cooked", repeating his disdain for Nvidia since late 2024, which he says has done nothing but hurt retail investors since. Because those stocks carry heavy index weight, a sector repricing would drag the indexes even without a broad bear market.
He will resume buying only on confirmed upward structure. His trigger is a bounce followed by new highs, with the indexes back above the 200-day moving average; without that he stays out. He says there is no need to catch the bottom, and wants to watch the next week's price action after a volatile midterm-election week.
The bull market is intact, and the bearish calls were wrong. He says he held this view for weeks, dismissing headlines and the "pop-up guru influencers" who arrived after the PDT rule went away and flipped bearish when their hype stocks fell. He points to the market having risen through multiple conflicts and wars, and to today's broad rally as his forecasts coming to fruition.
A Democratic sweep is bullish because gridlock blocks wild policy. He reports Democrats took the House and Senate last night, which he had called "incredibly likely." His reasoning: a government in gridlock can't push through major economic policy, and the predictability that results attracts investors.
He expects a government shutdown, and expects markets to climb through it. This is his own speculation: with Democrats in control of Congress he finds a major budget agreement unlikely, so a shutdown is something to watch through November. Historically, he says, markets dip in an "anticipatory pullback" beforehand and then climb fast during the shutdown, since no major policy or geopolitical shifts can happen. He thinks a Santa rally is looking more likely and calls for a "blow off top."
His book is working, and he will add once charts form structure. Xometry, his best position, is near 60% profit with no leverage; his regional banks are rising, and both StockTok ETFs are at new all-time highs. He just sold Hinge Health for a +20% gain and remains concentrated in regional banks, precious metal miners and insurance. If chart structure re-forms as recovering stocks settle, which he expects, he plans to get aggressive with new positions.
$StockTok ETF Doubles the S&P 500 - Update on What to Buy, Hold & Sell
Scary headlines have not produced bearish price action. He notes the "worst day and month since June 2025" headline for the NASDAQ and S&P 500, but says the S&P 500 is only consolidating in the range it has held since August. In his view, wars in Ukraine and Iran, rising bond yields, weak manufacturing, a rate hike, hot inflation and China's AI bubble popping have all failed to break the uptrend.
Money is rotating out of AI tech, not leaving stocks. He cites resilience in finance, health care and other "recession resistant" sectors, and Russell 2000 strength on green days, as evidence of rotation. He calls the pullback in Intel, Google and Meta healthy, though he is watching Intel's market-cap drop as a red flag. He stays focused on recession-resistant names and avoids tech except for short-term trading.
Institutional investors see a decent economy, whatever consumers feel. He points to corporate profits still climbing (BEA data) and consumer spending rising steadily despite complaints about cost of living. He guesses the spending comes from boomers and notes credit card delinquencies are led by younger generations, but argues shareholders care about profits, not grocery bills.
Midterm gridlock should be bullish this time, he argues. He puts Democrats at roughly 94% to take the House and likely the Senate. He concedes that markets have historically done worse under a Republican president with a Democratic Congress, but predicts gridlock will end "not-normal" policies such as sweeping tariff scares, and that institutional investors will reward that predictability.
His Pokémon-card index shows no imminent bear market. He tracks an index of the 1,000 most liquid Pokémon cards as a risk-off asset, expecting a sharp drop there to come two to three months before a stock market drop; it has mostly risen over the past days and year. He calls this a personal project. He says a big meltdown is "in the works" but sees no signals today, and reports the StockTok ETF up nearly 22% versus the S&P 500's 9.5% this year, with ETF 2.0 breaking out.
Intel's collapse is the first real bear-market clue. He has said for weeks that a large-cap, "reputable" stock collapsing could be the tell; Intel, which he calls a $400B+ blue chip, fell by what the audio gives as 24 pre-market. He won't decide on that yet: it could be a dead cat bounce, so he is waiting for how it trades today, with a second update this afternoon.
The Binance hack may mark a bottom, as FTX did. Binance was reported hacked for billions (NYT, 29 Oct 2026; in the audio, by North Korean hackers). He notes that FTX's collapse between 2 and 11 November 2022 roughly marked the bottom for crypto and stocks. He labels the parallel as his own speculation, knowable only in hindsight, and calls crypto too full of scammers and hackers to be worth the risk.
The S&P 500 is still in a defined bull market. S&P 500 futures are down only slightly and are mostly forming a higher low, so he reads the broad market as intact and the selling as a possible overreaction. He doesn't think the meltdown has started, but wants to see where the market closes Friday before judging next week.
Avoid knee-jerk pre-market moves, but set hard cut points. Pre-market action is especially volatile for single names, he says, and reacting to it is often wrong. Still, overexposed holders should trim or cut. He will sell Hinge Health below $111 and Twilio below $176, which roughly cancel each other out, while Xometry, up more than 38%, gives a cushion. Small losses must not become massive ones.
The market has shrugged off every bearish headline. He lists DeepSeek's AI release, the early-2026 US-Israel strike on Iran (four all-time highs since), on-off tariffs, CAPE valuation warnings peaking in June, hedge-fund tech de-risking and Burry's months of 1987 Black Monday warnings. Pullbacks have shrunk each time, -21%, then -10%, then -4.5%, with all-time highs followed by sideways action.
The blow-off top is still intact; meltdown shorting comes later. His historical ranges: melt-ups last one to three years, blow-off tops one to two years, meltdowns about one year. He says setups still favor the blow-off run and that shorting the meltdown may become the topic in "a few months, a year or so", but not under today's conditions. This is his forecast.
The angry, bearish crowd is a contrarian signal. He identifies it as rookie investors who piled into hype names like Bloom Energy and CoreWeave after the pattern day trading rule went away in June, now badly down; news readers trusting CNBC or Fox Business; and bots posting inverse comments. He says the market is grinding out the weakest players.
Recession-resistant assets remain his focus. Health care draws no excitement while attention stays on the AI bubble; public faith in silver and copper is near zero, though silver has bounced and he wants more from it. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 have pulled back without a crash, and he expects those calling the market "cooked" to chase local peaks.
His screener keeps surfacing winners, including an odd one. The StockTok Screener has repeatedly flagged Hasbro, which he says rose nearly 10% in less than a week; he calls it a weird name for the screener to find.
The market is consolidating, not crashing. He points to the S&P 500 sitting above its 200-day moving average in a well-defined uptrend, with most stocks oscillating in range; he expects the boredom to shake out retail investors, who will return only after the recovery. He says he is still betting on a blow-off top to the upside.
A split Congress has historically meant weaker, not crashing, returns. Citing Fidelity research, he says a Republican president with a Republican Congress averaged 14.5% a year, while a Republican president with a divided Congress was the worst combination at 7.3%. If Democrats win in November, history suggests softer returns, not an imminent crash — with the caveat that past results do not predict future performance.
If structure does break, stop buying and don't fight trends. He calls Rocket Lab, CoreWeave, SoFi and Netflix some of the most talked-about names in clear downtrends. He says influencers who arrived after the pattern day trader rule ended in June are bottom-picking and dollar-cost averaging; they bought Netflix above $110, and it now sits at $69. Wait for strength before buying.
Cut small losses before they become big ones. Control risk by starting smaller, reducing position size, or using stops. His test for each holding: has the trade been invalidated, or has price action broken structure? If yes, trim or cut; if no, sit back and be patient.
Individual insider buying and selling is a useless signal. His example is Nike: insiders are reported buying, as they were on September 18, yet the stock remains in a clearly defined downtrend. An executive may simply be a bad trader, or selling for personal reasons such as a house or a new job, and he says mainstream coverage of these trades is wrong on direction more often than right.
Closely held share percentage is the more useful indicator. All else equal, he picks the stock with more closely held shares, because a demand surge then meets a supply shortage. This was one of several reasons he preferred Tesla over AMD: 28.5% of Tesla's shares are closely held versus 0.51% for AMD. Nike's closely held shares, he says, were largely dumped long ago.
The market is consolidating, not breaking; stay long until proven wrong. He reads last week's fear as producing no crashes in major blue chips and continued higher lows. His speculation is that this week's events will not be very impactful: earnings from SpaceX and Netflix (October 20) and Meta and Tesla (October 21), Capital One (Tuesday) and American Express (Friday) delinquency updates, and September housing starts and pending home sales (Tuesday).
The Stock Market Is Still Bullish... But I’m Watching This Weird Warning Sign
The bull market is intact despite weeks of headline-driven chop. Since mid-August the S&P 500 has repeatedly dropped a few percent on news, then reversed to new local highs, building higher lows and higher highs in a volatility contraction pattern (VCP). The author sees no blue-chip crash and no break of structure, and dismisses insider activity and Middle East conflict as irrelevant to investing.
Buying dips is a bad habit; hold built positions instead. The author argues dip-buying gets rewarded a few times, which reinforces it, and then crushes the buyer when a real bear market arrives. Their stated approach is to have already built positions and wait for the next leg up rather than add on pullbacks.
Pokemon cards may turn down before equities, as NFTs did. The hypothesis rests on the 2021 precedent: risk-on NFTs (CryptoPunks peaking October 2021, Axie Infinity around November) crashed roughly three months before traditional markets. The author's "Charizard Index" tracks 1,000 popular, liquid cards, deliberately excluding the rarest, illiquid ones as outliers. This is their own speculation, not an established indicator.
Card buyers look like late-stage bubble investors, not early ones. People buying at absurd prices for retirement or kids' college funds mirror NFT and $100k+ Bitcoin buyers who believed they were early. The author calls the market "clearly in bubble territory," contrasting newcomers with Gary Haase, who began collecting in 1999 and holds a Guinness-recorded $10M collection.
The index has not broken, so no bear signal yet. It wobbled over the past month but resumed its bull trend, which the author reads as pointing to continuation in stocks. The trigger they are watching for is a steep single-week collapse breaking structure, with news of scalpers and collectors panicking, implying equities follow lower in roughly 2–3 months.
The Stock Market Doesn’t Need Your Constant Attention
Constant market news-checking damages portfolios more than it helps. He argues that chasing news, Reddit and influencer takes breeds over-analysis that shakes investors out of positions that would have paid off later. He says creators posting daily updates are mostly chasing clicks, and that he will post only when an update is actually warranted.
The S&P 500 is consolidating in a bullish structure, not breaking down. He reads it as a volatility contraction pattern still making higher lows within the same range as last week, which he says points to an upside move, though no breakout has happened yet. Silver has made a higher high and no lower low since his July update, so he sees nothing to change there.
Small pullbacks are not grounds for panic. He says -1% or -2% moves need no action; only declines of -30% to -40% in small/mid-caps or blue chips would warrant fresh updates. He calls the Fear & Greed Index nearly useless but says its fearful reading, with the market well above a year ago, shows a market climbing a wall of fear.
His content surges only at breakouts, breakdowns or buy-list building. As a breakout investor he posts more when the market or individual stocks tap 52-period highs or 52-period lows, and during consolidations he builds buy lists (or short lists, depending on conditions), most recently from the Midweek Movers winners. He frames his expectation of another leg up, including in his own holdings, explicitly as speculation.
The S&P 500's consolidation is about to resolve in a big move. He says the index has consolidated since ~13 August with locally higher highs and higher lows, and expects the compressed price action to break within days or next week. He leans upside because no individual stocks have truly crashed and longer consolidations tend to produce bigger moves, but allows it could be a "huge fake out".
Rainy.talks' three AI-infrastructure picks pass his screen. The TikTok creator named Amphenol (high-speed AI cables and connectors), nVent (liquid cooling) and Eaton (grid-to-server power). He finds all three in well-developed uptrends with locally higher highs and lows, and growing EPS and revenue annually — the conditions he wants. nVent placed second in last week's midweek movers.
nVent is his favourite of the three; Amphenol his least. His objection to Amphenol is share count, about 2.47 billion shares outstanding. He also likes that these names lack the bloated market cap he sees as Nvidia's problem.
He trades for probability of running now, not five-year holds. He explicitly declines the creator's five-year framing, saying no one has a crystal ball. He contrasts these picks with typical influencer stocks sitting at 52-week lows in downtrends, where dollar-cost averaging is in his view the worst thing a portfolio can do.
Headline-driven swings are shaking retail out of good positions. He describes the week as a mid-week scare followed by a rise into the close, and repeats his standing advice to ignore the news where the portfolio is concerned.
Many reader-requested stocks currently rate as buys. Of 27 tickers ranked, 13 were marked "buys" for strong established trends, good fundamentals and high relative strength, many with imminent bullish chart setups; one ranked top. The available text does not name the tickers.
He bought a Midweek Movers pick just starting its breakout. His rationale is the series' record: he reports its picks have averaged a 25.9% gain each this year. The stock is not named in the visible text.
The quiet week reads to him as consolidation before another leg up. He takes the absence of anything alarming as a positive sign that the market is still coiling, which is his interpretation rather than a stated forecast with levels or timing.
$Tesla vs. AMD: Which Stock Would I Buy Right Now?
The bubble is real but not bursting yet; price action decides. The title is deliberate clickbait mirroring this week's viral fear headlines, while S&P 500 futures sit 0.1% from all-time highs and have trended up since 16 August. He keeps his framework: a meltup called in 2022, a blow-off top he sees evidence of since June 2025, then a meltdown he has not yet called. His stated crash signal is a reputable large cap collapsing in a single day amid a sea of red, not headlines or indicators.
Burry's updated positions all fight the trend and are losing. Per the disclosure reported by TrendSpider on 22 September, he counts 7 of 9 positions in a loss, 2 at breakeven and one, Birkenstock, up 4.8%. He expects those losses to grow, and uses it to argue that fear-driven, counter-trend selling repeatedly leaves investors behind a recovering market.
Nvidia is fundamentally a bubble stock, but don't short it. He has rated it "avoid" since 2024, says he likened it to Enron on November 15th before Nvidia IR rebutted Burry on the 23rd, and cites Huang's showmanship. Yet the chart shows a Minervini-style Volatility Contraction Pattern breaking to all-time highs, so he expects short-to-mid-term gains and pain for bears, exiting only on weakness.
Palantir shows only strength; he guesses further upside. Up more than 600% since his 2024 call, it is gapping up with higher highs and lows after an accumulation signal on 04 August, and sits above the 200-day moving average, below which alone he will short. He guesses, explicitly with low confidence, a break above $200 and a run toward $300.
Nvidia and Palantir are becoming crowded retail trades he no longer wants. Although he expects both to do well short term, he thinks their popularity with retail investors will crowd them quickly, citing young buyers on social media calling themselves early at $200 a share in Palantir.
$Xometry Breaks +51% and I’m Buying Another Stock Today
The bull market stays intact despite oil and yield worries. He acknowledges retail concern over rising oil prices and Treasury yields but says the market's trend, not the headlines, is what he follows, and he expects another leg up to new all-time highs.
Xometry is his model trend trade, now up over 45%. The position hit a fresh all-time high this week, and he added to it three separate times as the uptrend continued, calling it the type of longer-term winner he looks for.
He rewrote the StockTok Summary page's entry and exit criteria. The update, linked from the post, lays out the specific conditions he now uses to decide when a stock is worth entering and when it's time to exit.
He published a separate breakdown of his selling approach. It covers how he thinks about exits, taking profits, and judging when to move on from a position, linked out from this post.
He named 3 stocks he's watching to buy next, with entry ranges. Sourced from past Midweek Movers winners, these are flagged as his next candidates following Xometry's run, with specific entry levels given in the linked post.
$3 Midweek Mover Winner Stocks I’m Looking to Buy Next
2026 has been an unusually choppy, rangebound market, not a clean uptrend. He says stocks now hit new all-time highs only briefly before chopping sideways, unlike 2021–2025 when positions often ran up almost immediately; he won't short into repeated all-time highs, and speculates (unproven) that the chop stems from negative headlines (Iran war, tariffs, oil, rate hikes) plus new day traders — active since June's repeal of the pattern day trading rule — getting picked off by market makers.
A single -4% Monday drop doesn't make silver's move a "cliff." He contrasts it with the real plunge of more than -30% in one day on January 30, calling the pullback normal consolidation; he'd reconsider the trade only if price breaks below roughly $55.80. He likens the pattern to Bitcoin's sideways consolidation before its breakout above the 200-day moving average, and says he's watching TLT, currently in a confirmed downtrend, speculating silver moves up before TLT turns.
Patience through the chop, not timing, is what's working this market. He cites no technical breakdown yet — the VIX is downtrending and "nothing is breaking" — and points to his Xometry position, which sat at a loss before turning to over 40% profit, as the reward for holding. He still advises trimming or cutting overexposed positions while letting winners run.
His top holding just made a fresh all-time high. The position is now up over 40%, and he notes silver mining stocks have been holding their ground through the rally.
The Midweek Movers screen keeps validating itself. This week's review was the largest yet, with 52 stocks screened and 2 removed (both of which he bought); the average Midweek Mover is up 25.9% this year, with over 75% still significantly positive.
Negative headlines should be ignored because media is incentivized by clicks, not investor returns. He concedes some fearful headlines contain elements of truth, but argues they aren't designed to help investors, and his read of the trend remains up.
Retail investors should lean on speed, not imitate Buffett. He argues Buffett's scale forces him to hold through losses that a retail trader could cut instantly, so copying billionaire buy-and-hold strategy at retail size throws away the retail investor's real edge: agility to enter and exit fast.
Chubb (CB) is not a buy despite the Buffett-bandwagon push. Media tied Buffett's name to Chubb back in June/July even as it stayed in a local downtrend; earnings were merely okay, free cash flow is dropping into 2026, and price reactivity around a recent red-volume sell-off stayed bearish. He'd wait for price to clear ~$350 before considering it.
Major indexes remain in a well-defined bull trend despite a quiet tape. The NASDAQ hit new all-time highs on 22 September (S&P close behind), the VIX keeps making lower highs and lows, and Finance's strength since February is now spreading to Tech — confirmed when his Midweek Movers ranking of 52 stocks produced only 2 winners, both tech names he bought. He warns the current calm typically precedes turbulence.
He called bitcoin's July bottom, and the broader tape confirms it. Bitcoin has trended up since, silver is climbing, and the S&P 500 is pushing toward all-time highs, which he expects to pull other sectors higher with it.
He calls Microstrategy a toxic bet despite being tactically bullish on it. He criticizes CEO Michael Saylor, noting Saylor reportedly lost nearly 99% of his wealth in the 2000 dot-com bubble, and argues Microstrategy's heavy leverage makes a blowup a matter of "when," not "if."
Short-term momentum still favors Microstrategy, with no fixed price target. The stock is back above its 200-day moving average alongside bitcoin's uptrend, and he says he "wouldn't bet against it," while dismissing specific targets like $300 or $500 as unknowable.
He frames the trade as bullish but time-bombed, urging active risk management. His advice for anyone in profit is to keep raising the stop-loss/cut price rather than hold a fixed target, since leverage-driven blowups are unpredictable in timing.
He argues buying stocks at 52-week lows is the wrong move. Lowe's (ticker LOW) has been trending down for 238 days and is hitting fresh 52-week lows, which he says is exactly when investors mistakenly buy rather than avoid it.
Rising home-remodeling activity is a leading recession signal, in his view. He says when households can't afford big vacations they remodel instead, noting this pattern showed up ahead of the 2008 crash and again in 2022, making home-improvement retailers worth watching as an economic gauge.
He contrasts chronic laggards with steady 52-week-high compounders. Nike has trended down for 1,748 days and just posted its eighth 52-week low, while Pepsi is down 33% from its highs on its fourth low; by contrast, Berkshire hasn't hit a 52-week low in roughly 1,440 days and is up 108%, and Shell has trended up over 1,340 days and is up 175% on its third 52-week high.
He built a free 52-period-high indicator to spot these breakouts. The tool, an orange line included in his trend indicator and "pump machine," is available on his page; he says he's watching LOW for an eventual reversal but wants confirmation from new highs, not just a bounce off lows, before buying.
The rate hike was foreseeable and shouldn't have surprised anyone. He says he flagged the risk back in February and, on September 7th, showed the odds of a hike had become increasingly likely.
He remains bullish despite the initial selloff. Stocks dropped and the VIX spiked on the news, but the market reclaimed the lost ground the same and following day while the VIX fell back below its moving average.
The bullish thesis held since June 9, 2025 stays intact for now. He says he hasn't seen enough deterioration in his signal to change course, though he'll exit on a major company failure, "delusional euphoria" on social media, or a break in price structure.
The week's calls remain relevant: a recession-resistant buy, three IPO picks, and Nvidia caution. He bought a recession-resistant stock as rate risk raised recession risk, screened roughly 389 IPOs down to three he likens to his 2024 Palantir call, and flagged Nvidia as a name he's cautious on versus better opportunities elsewhere.
Bank of America's 2021 bond bet has turned into a large drag. BAC built up a big securities position in 2021 wagering that rates near zero to one percent would persist; with rates having since risen, headlines are now circulating citing roughly $90 billion in estimated losses tied to that portfolio.
He reads BAC's public $150 target-pushing as a sign it wants out. Per its 13F filing, BAC holds a large stake in a stock (the name is unclear in the audio) that it's reportedly pushing toward a $150 target; he calls price targets "often futile" and speculates the push signals BAC wants liquidity to exit, expecting the stock to oscillate rather than cleanly get there.
He calls Bank of America a flat "no" amid a stacked downtrend. Between the bond losses, only replacing 75% of departing staff while doubling its AI budget, and pushing individual stock targets, combined with a strong downtrend, he's avoiding BAC; he separately flags TLT as a possible future bond-related entry but says that setup "is not there yet."
Regional banks, not BAC, are where he sees the opportunity. He's favored regional banks since roughly February 2026 as part of his "stock talk" positioning, which he says has delivered two-to-three times the S&P 500's returns; a review of 389 recent IPOs flagged names like NB Bancorp rising to the top on strong cash flow, rising EPS, and bullish chart setups, even as he continues avoiding the large banks.
Fed rate hikes work like a thermostat, with a built-in lag. He says most newer investors expect an immediate market reaction, but just as turning down a thermostat doesn't instantly cool a house, it takes time for higher rates to work through the economy and cool inflation.
The standard mechanism: higher rates raise borrowing costs and pressure valuations. He notes the rate hike that just happened makes borrowing more expensive and strengthens the dollar, which puts pressure on the British pound and can make stocks "bumpy" for longer-term investors, though he stresses this doesn't play out immediately.
History shows rates and stocks don't always move in opposite directions. He points to the first half of 2022, when rates and stocks rose together; 2008, when rates fell alongside a crashing market; and the early 2000s, when rates and stocks both climbed — evidence against a simple "rates up, stocks down" rule.
His current move: hold recession-resistant assets while waiting out the lag. He expects hikes to eventually pressure the stock market lower, similar to the delayed cooling on inflation, but since that effect takes time, most of the stocks he's currently finding attractive are recession-resistant names.
The Fed decision is already priced in, explaining the market's chop. He argues the stock market is a forward-looking discounting mechanism, so a near-certain rate hike that he and readers already know about has likely already been absorbed by price action.
A pause or cut, not a hike, would be the bullish surprise. He treats a hike as the priced-in base case; CME FedWatch puts a pause at just 7.3% odds and a cut near 0%, but either would surprise markets — a pause partly from reluctance to tighten during the "war," a cut because inflation (per BLS data) is still rising.
No bear-market warning sign has appeared yet. He points to the absence of any large-cap, reputable company "snapping" or crashing in a single day — a signal he treats as a key early bear-market tell — as evidence the market remains a well-defined bull market, making shorting a bad idea in his view.
Rising M2 money supply growth should keep lifting stock prices. He frames faster M2 growth, a byproduct of the "war," as typically devaluing the dollar and pushing asset values higher, though he hedges with "normally," not treating it as guaranteed.
Recession-resistant stocks keep outperforming amid AI-sector turbulence. He says the AI sector is undergoing turbulence while "recession resistant" stocks continue performing well, noting he added a breakout healthcare stock to his buys the day before.
$Flash Update - This Recession Resistant Stock Keeps Rising To The Top
A real bubble exists, but price action hasn't confirmed a break yet. He says he believes markets are in a "massive" bubble and expects a real crash eventually ("a sea of red"), but until price action shows a break, he treats the market as still in a well-defined bull market and advises against panic.
Monday's AI-stock drop was normal volatility, not the bubble bursting. NVIDIA and Taiwan Semiconductor (-3.5% pre-market) fell on news of NVIDIA's possible $10B investment in Anthropic, which he says spooks investors short-term, but Microsoft and Google shares were still up, which he reads as evidence this isn't a broad bloodbath.
He's screening 2023–2024 IPOs for the next Palantir. Citing how he identified Palantir in 2024 and his rule that "if it's a good stock, it'll be around in 2–3 years" (also applied to SpaceX), he's reviewing over 300 stocks that IPO'd in 2023–2024 instead of this week's Midweek Movers, with no guarantee of finding another winner.
His bearish oil call stands despite renewed $200-a-barrel talk. He attributes rising oil prices to speculation but argues price elasticity of demand — using rising beef prices curbing beef consumption as an analogy — will cap further upside, calling $200 oil targets unrealistic and comparing oil trading to "playing with dynamite."
NVIDIA is an automatic "no" for his own portfolio. He cites diminishing returns, an "excessively large" market cap, and circular financing as reasons he won't buy NVIDIA on new money today (he exempts longtime holders), calling it "the bloated hog of the stock market."
A possible $10B Anthropic investment could pressure NVIDIA's stock short-term. Though unconfirmed, he says the deal could be good long-term but that large acquisitions typically hurt or stagnate the acquirer's stock short-term because investors are unsure the new spending will be profitable.
History shows big acquisitions often drag down the acquirer's stock. He cites Oracle's $2B TikTok stake (stock down -44% in a bull market), Meta's 2014 $19B WhatsApp purchase (-21%), and Microsoft's 2016 LinkedIn deal (shares flat for nearly a year) as precedent, though all eventually recovered.
He favors three targeted entries and recession-resistant stocks over NVIDIA. He points to three stocks he's targeting for buys and two recession-resistant names from Midweek Movers, which he expects to "vastly outperform" NVIDIA.
Disney is about the closest thing he has to a long-term hold. Asked for his favorite long-term holds, he says he never commits to holding anything indefinitely, but if pressed he'd pick Disney for its scale and pricing power, riding trends "for however long it'll let me."
A bullish Friday reversal followed a choppy Monday-through-Thursday week. He frames Friday's reversal signals as typically — "often, not always" — predictive of a bullish Monday and Tuesday to follow.
Two of three targeted stocks are nearing his buy range. He updated entry targets following Friday's reversal, with two of the three stocks he's watching getting particularly close to the prices he'd buy at.
Two recession-resistant stocks broke out and remain in buy range. Both the first- and second-place stocks from this week's rankings broke out and are still within his buy range, per his Midweek Movers process.
A screener pick from February keeps paying off. FRO (Frontline) is up 63% since the screener flagged it in February; the original entry setup has passed, but he says a new trigger just fired that looks more actionable now.
This week's community-picked stock still has runway, despite a sharp rally. CVR Energy, the community's chosen stock, rose 23% this week on a fresh weekly/monthly breakout; he expects some consolidation but thinks it has room to run longer-term.
$The Market Reversed. Here Are My 3 Adjusted Buy Targets.
Today's choppy action isn't what a real bear-market start looks like. He contrasts today's "fear and worry" with the mass euphoria and delusional price targets he says precede real crashes, and recalls the "sea of red" he personally saw in 2008, 2020, and 2022 as the actual bear-market signal — absent today.
Shrinking drawdowns point to a late-stage bull market, not a bear one. Even the brief technical bear market in early 2025 showed progressively smaller, more compressed drawdowns, which he reads as evidence the market is late-cycle bullish rather than rolling into a bear market.
He only buys on green days, never on red ones. He's still watching three stocks he wants to buy but is waiting for local price action to reverse from its small downtrend first, reasoning that buying on red days usually means missing the bottom and eating short-term pain.
Recession-resistant stocks keep leading Midweek Movers rankings. He notes recession-resistant names again took the top spots in this week's Midweek Movers episode and says they've performed particularly well throughout 2026.
"Buy the high" works better than dip-buying, in his view. He argues that since most retail investors dip-buy and most retail investors fail, a stock that "feels" expensive is actually a demand signal that valuations will keep rising, while a "cheap"-feeling stock usually signals falling demand — not always, but most of the time.
Every Midweek Movers pick this year has gone up. The average gain across the year's picks was 25.9%, and 75% of them remain up today; he notes almost all were bought at highs, not dips, when selected.
Xometry is his go-to proof that buying highs, not bottoms, pays off. He first flagged Xometry in September 2025 at its initial breakout, and it's since run over 90%; his daily screener separately picked it up in November 2025 and it's up over 65% from there — in both cases, nowhere near the bottom.
Dollar-cost-averaging down is a bull-market habit that backfires once trends reverse. He says investors who fight the trend by buying dips or DCA-ing down have "consistently" disappeared over the years, and warns this habit, reinforced by a bull market, will be costly once a real bear market arrives.
$The Market Is Panicking Again. Here’s What I’m Buying.
Volatility Contraction Patterns anchor most of his trading strategy. He says roughly 70% of his approach targets VCPs — higher lows (often with slightly higher highs testing a price ceiling) and decreasing volume into a breakout — which he credits with doubling or tripling the S&P 500's returns; he enters on the breakout for a lower-risk entry and always sets a stop.
CVR Energy just broke its price ceiling, with a wide stop below. He flags CVR Energy breaking its macro VCP ceiling at $44.50, with an invalidation stop around $26.75 — roughly 40% lower — and recommends starting with a smaller position and building it as price confirms, to limit risk on that wide a stop.
CVR Energy's weak fundamentals are offset by a potential supply squeeze. He acknowledges declining revenue and EPS but notes 70% of the stock's 100 million shares are closely held, which he argues makes it more vulnerable to a supply squeeze and higher prices, framing it as a "recession resistant" name with a narrative catalyst.
Most of his VCP trades play out faster on daily and weekly charts. He describes CVR Energy's multi-year setup as the "slow version" of a VCP, while most setups he shares intra-week use the same pattern on shorter timeframes that resolve faster; per the transcript, he only posts monthly-chart VCPs publicly to avoid creating liquidity issues for market makers.
ASTS is flashing a bearish setup, the mirror image of a VCP. Per the transcript, he sees lower highs forming on ASTS and would look to short it if price breaks that floor, contrasting it with WSFS Financial — one of the year's best trades — where higher lows and highs consolidated before a breakout he says gained 50–100%.
A weekly bounce in major indices signals likely continuation. He says the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both bounced this week after consolidating down from their mid-August all-time highs, which he reads as a good sign for continuation into the following week.
Bearish headlines have scared investors away from a market making record highs. He lists the Iran war, oil depletion, inflation, Fed tightening, bond yields, the AI bubble, market concentration, labor weakness, and tariffs as narratives keeping people on the sidelines, while the S&P 500 has hit 27 record highs in 2026 per Yahoo Finance.
His Midweek Movers picks keep outperforming, he says, even in hindsight. He reports that every first- and second-place Midweek Movers pick over the past year through August rose shortly after selection, averaging a 29.6% gain, and that 75% remain up today — citing Plug Power (picked in May) as up 55.36% as one example.
The Midweek Movers series pauses during unfavorable markets to protect its track record. He notes the series didn't run in March and April due to unfavorable conditions, saying such pauses are meant to keep selection accuracy high and preserve previously banked gains.
Too Many Stock Landmines. Here’s Where I’m Putting My Money Instead
Silver miners offer bigger leveraged upside than gold or silver alone. Measuring from the 2022 bottom, gold is up roughly 220% (peaking locally in March 2026) while silver ran about 375% over the same stretch, and his top four silver-miner picks are up between 442% and 1,248% — the logic being that if gold rises, silver and then silver miners rise more.
History suggests silver can keep rising well after a bull market tops. He cites silver continuing to climb for 42 days after the brief technical bear market of early 2025 and for 154 days following the 2008 crash as precedent for why silver positions may still have room to run even if stocks turn down; the 2000 dot-com case differed, with silver still gaining 65% while the S&P kept rising.
Frequent single-stock blowups pushed him away from individual stock picks. He points to Lululemon and UiPath both crashing -17% and Guidewire Software falling -22% despite beating earnings estimates and nearly doubling EPS as evidence that too many names are "landmines" right now, so he's rotating toward index funds and "recession resistant" assets like silver instead.
Silver isn't bear-market-safe, but he says it buys more time than stocks. He's explicit that silver and silver miners are not safe holdings in an actual bear market, but argues, based on the historical pattern above, that they typically give more runway before a downturn catches up to them; he is not currently calling a bear market.