geopolitics
Polis Pandit$Insane Spending By the Kamala Harris Campaign in the 2024 Election
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Mr. GlobalCEO Of Exxon Destroys The Narrative
- US producers are already at full output, leaving nothing to unleash. He quotes the CEO of Exxon saying Trump will not be able to unleash new energy production because US production is not constrained and there is no near-term opportunity to unleash more, because most US operators are already optimizing production. He reads this as producers already running at maximum output.
- He reads the remark as rebutting four years of Republican messaging. In his view it contradicts the claims of the Republican Party, the American Petroleum Institute and big oil that Biden held back the oil and gas industry — the argument he says he has been making for those four years.
Polis Pandit$10 Changes Democrats Must Make
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GeoHussarA brief history, history of Israel/Palestine from biblical times to today
synopsis
The host traces the land from Jewish settlement around 1300 BC to the 1948–49 war, arguing that each turn in who held it was driven by outside empires and persecution elsewhere, and ending with an Arab state shrunk below 40% of the UN partition, over 750,000 Palestinians displaced and over 1 million Jews expelled from Arab countries.
Ancient kingdoms and exile. A Jewish monarchy from 1020 BC split and fell to Assyria by 722 BC and Babylon in 586 BC before Cyrus freed the Jews in 538 BC. Two revolts against Rome, from 66 AD and around 135 AD, cost about 1.5 million lives and ended the Jewish majority; Jerusalem became Christian after 313.
Muslim, Crusader and Ottoman centuries. Jerusalem fell peacefully to the caliphate in 637, and Jews returned after 500 years. The host credits the jizya tax with making forced conversion unprofitable. Crusaders massacred 10,000–75,000 in 1099, and Mamluk demolitions and the 1347 plague cut the population from about 2.5 million to 150,000. Sephardic refugees from Spain and Portugal revived it under the Ottomans after 1516.
Resettlement and Zionism. The 1836 earthquake, Montefiore's settlements, pogroms and the Dreyfus affair pushed Jewish migration: 7,000 to 43,000 by 1890, then the aliyot from 1881. Herzl made Zionism political in 1897, and land disputes with Arab tenants began by the 1890s.
War and Mandate. The host reads the Balfour Declaration as self-interested and notes Sykes–Picot. Riots in 1920–21 and 1929, the 1936 revolt (over 6,000 Arab dead) and the 1939 White Paper followed. The host claims the Arab world was broadly sympathetic to Hitler, and calls the Zionist militias terrorist, culminating in the King David Hotel bombing in 1946 that killed 91.
Partition and war. Britain handed the Mandate to the UN in February 1947; Resolution 181 passed 33–13. The host quotes the Arab League's first secretary-general predicting a war of extermination. Israel was declared on May 14, 1948 and defeated five invading states by mid-1949.
- Roman repression, not Arab conquest, ended the Jewish majority. The host cites roughly 1 million deaths in the revolt from 66 AD and another half million around 135–136 AD, then exile from Jerusalem, which was renamed Aelia Capitolina. By the fifth century Jews were a small minority; only the peaceful Muslim takeover of Jerusalem in 637 let them return after about 500 years.
- Muslim rule was more tolerant than Crusader rule, the host argues. Crusaders who took Jerusalem in 1099 slaughtered an estimated 10,000–75,000 Jews and Muslims, and under Christian control only Christians had safe passage. Crusades, Mongol raids, Mamluk demolitions and the 1347 plague left a backwater: population fell from about 2.5 million in antiquity to 225,000, then 150,000.
- European persecution, not ideology alone, drove Jewish immigration. Pogroms, the 1894 Dreyfus affair and Herzl's 1897 political Zionism fed successive aliyot; Jews went from 7,000 to 43,000 by 1890, 84,000 of 752,000 (about 11%) in 1922, and 630,000, about a third, by 1947. Because the Ottomans barred most sales, associations bought mainly sparsely populated coastal land.
- The Mandate became three-way violence that Britain served for itself. The host reads the 1917 Balfour Declaration as self-interested and notes the 1939 White Paper's ban on land purchase in 95% of the territory and 15,000 immigrants a year. The 1936 Arab revolt cost about 600 Jewish, 300–500 British and over 6,000 Arab lives; the host labels Haganah, Irgun and Lehi attacks — including the July 1946 King David Hotel bombing, 91 dead — terrorism.
- The 1948 war left Arabs far less than partition promised. Their share fell below 40% of the partition allotment. UN Resolution 181 passed on November 29, 1947 by 33–13 with 10 abstentions; Israel, declared May 14, 1948, defeated Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. Over 750,000 Palestinians were displaced, Jordan took the West Bank and Egypt Gaza, and over 1 million Jews expelled from Arab states helped double Israel's Jewish population by 1951.
Mr. GlobalExplaining Low Gas Prices Under Trump
- Trump inherited low prices from a huge global oversupply. An EIA outlook the week before he took office in January 2017 expected only slight crude increases through 2017 and 2018. He cites $50-a-barrel oil, $2.40 gas and 3 billion barrels of working oversupply left over from the late-Obama crash.
- The 2018 crash was Trump's own doing. He says Trump promised Saudi Arabia sanctions on Iranian oil, got higher Saudi output, then granted Iran waivers, double-crossing OPEC. Bankruptcies averaged one a week through the last three quarters of 2019, before COVID, and 30% of drilling rigs were lost.
- OPEC 2020 was OPEC's revenge, and it hurt consumers under Biden. He reads the two-year 10% production cut as retaliation for 2018, lasting until 18 months into Biden's term and producing the highest US gas prices. He calls it a huge driver of global inflation and says refining capacity was also lost.
- Consumers gained almost nothing from the crash Trump caused. He puts the saving at 7 cents a gallon and weighs that against a bankruptcy a week and later record gas prices, and says gas never touched a $3 national average when Trump did it.
GeoHussarConspiracies about the election
- Democratic election-denial now serves America's adversaries. Speaking as a Kamala Harris voter, he tells those spreading stories of Russian interference in 2024, including theories that Starlink was used, to stop. His reading is that Russia, Iran and other competitors aim only to keep America divided, used the Republican platform to do it until this election, and now appear to be using Democrats through 2028.
- His own 2016 denial achieved nothing. He says he spent hundreds of hours disputing Donald Trump's 2016 win, as did millions of other Americans. The only real change came at the ballot box, with the modest 2018 Blue Wave and Joe Biden's 2020 election, while the mistrust it sowed hurt Democrats and the country.
- The result is legitimate and should be accepted. He asserts the electoral system is secure and monitored and checked before, during and after the vote. He argues the Electoral College excuse no longer applies because, in his words, the vast majority backed Trump. The choice he lays out is to accept Trump and work on communities and families, or get nothing done for two to four years.
GeoHussar#greenscreen A brief history of Israel and Palestine #israel #palestine
synopsis
The host traces the land from Jewish settlement around 1300 BC to the 1948–49 war, stitched together from a multi-part series, arguing that each turn in who held it was driven by outside empires and persecution elsewhere, and ending with an Arab state shrunk below 40% of the UN partition, over 750,000 Palestinians displaced and over 1 million Jews expelled from Arab countries.
Ancient kingdoms and exile. A Jewish monarchy from 1020 BC split and fell to Assyria by 722 BC and Babylon in 586 BC before Cyrus freed the Jews in 538 BC. Two revolts against Rome, from 66 AD and around 135 AD, cost about 1.5 million lives and ended the Jewish majority; Jerusalem became Christian after 313.
Muslim, Crusader and Ottoman centuries. Jerusalem fell peacefully to the caliphate in 637, and Jews returned after 500 years. The host credits the jizya tax with making forced conversion unprofitable. Crusaders massacred 10,000–75,000 in 1099, and Mamluk demolitions and the 1347 plague cut the population from about 2.5 million to 150,000. Sephardic refugees from Spain and Portugal revived it under the Ottomans after 1516.
Resettlement and Zionism. The 1836 earthquake, Montefiore's settlements, pogroms and the Dreyfus affair pushed Jewish migration: 7,000 to 43,000 by 1890, then the aliyot from 1881. Herzl made Zionism political in 1897, and land disputes with Arab tenants began by the 1890s.
War and Mandate. The host reads the Balfour Declaration as self-interested and notes Sykes–Picot. Riots in 1920–21 and 1929, the 1936 revolt (over 6,000 Arab dead) and the 1939 White Paper followed. The host claims the Arab world was broadly sympathetic to Hitler, and calls the Zionist militias terrorist, culminating in the King David Hotel bombing in 1946 that killed 91.
Partition and war. Britain handed the Mandate to the UN in February 1947; Resolution 181 passed 33–13. The host quotes the Arab League's first secretary-general predicting a war of extermination. Israel was declared on May 14, 1948 and defeated five invading states by mid-1949.
- Roman repression, not Arab conquest, ended the Jewish majority. The host cites roughly 1 million deaths in the revolt from 66 AD and another half million around 135–136 AD, then exile from Jerusalem, which was renamed Aelia Capitolina. By the fifth century Jews were a small minority; only the peaceful Muslim takeover of Jerusalem in 637 let them return after about 500 years.
- Muslim rule was more tolerant than Crusader rule, the host argues. Crusaders who took Jerusalem in 1099 slaughtered an estimated 10,000–75,000 Jews and Muslims, and under Christian control only Christians had safe passage. Crusades, Mongol raids, Mamluk demolitions and the 1347 plague left a backwater: population fell from about 2.5 million in antiquity to 225,000, then 150,000.
- European persecution, not ideology alone, drove Jewish immigration. Pogroms, the 1894 Dreyfus affair and Herzl's 1897 political Zionism fed successive aliyot; Jews went from 7,000 to 43,000 by 1890, 84,000 of 752,000 (about 11%) in 1922, and 630,000, about a third, by 1947. Because the Ottomans barred most sales, associations bought mainly sparsely populated coastal land.
- The Mandate became three-way violence that Britain served for itself. The host reads the 1917 Balfour Declaration as self-interested and notes the 1939 White Paper's ban on land purchase in 95% of the territory and 15,000 immigrants a year. The 1936 Arab revolt cost about 600 Jewish, 300–500 British and over 6,000 Arab lives; the host labels Haganah, Irgun and Lehi attacks — including the July 1946 King David Hotel bombing, 91 dead — terrorism.
- The 1948 war left Arabs far less than partition promised. Their share fell below 40% of the partition allotment. UN Resolution 181 passed on November 29, 1947 by 33–13 with 10 abstentions; Israel, declared May 14, 1948, defeated Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. Over 750,000 Palestinians were displaced, Jordan took the West Bank and Egypt Gaza, and over 1 million Jews expelled from Arab states helped double Israel's Jewish population by 1951.
Polis Pandit$How Donald Trump Won the 2024 Election
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Polis Pandit$If Kamala Harris Loses, These Are the 3 Main Reasons Why
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