Aurélien Géron, author of O'Reilly's Hands-On Machine Learning (which he says O'Reilly calls its bestselling book overall), spoke before a live audience at the University of Auckland. He expects AGI probably within 5–10 years, pushed back from his earlier five because LLMs seem to have plateaued. He believes any truly intelligent AI will tend to protect itself and its goals, so alignment research is urgent and humanity "probably only gets one shot". He still opposes pausing AI, and hopes AGI comes slowly enough for society to absorb it.
Writing the book. Géron wrote it because ML material was either maths-heavy research content or programmer content that stopped at basics. He had just left Google and knew TensorFlow was about to be open-sourced. Following O'Reilly's advice, he wrote for a single software-engineer former colleague. End-of-chapter exercises with solutions spread it through universities. He wants readers to learn linear regression and random forests before rushing to neural nets, and above all to define the objective and metric first. As a consultant he has seen non-technical CEOs insist on an LLM regardless.
PyTorch, and what to cut. The new version uses PyTorch, branching rather than replacing the TensorFlow line. Géron says PyTorch won because researchers found it Pythonic and fast to iterate, and engineers had to follow wherever new models appeared. He welcomes framework rivalry ("democracy is messy"), crediting PyTorch for TensorFlow 2. He worries that Google is underinvesting in TensorFlow while JAX gains too little traction. He misses a built-in training loop like Keras's fit, but skipped Lightning to reduce dependencies: notebooks already break, as when OpenML went down. SVMs move online, GANs are trimmed but kept because they excite readers, and diffusion is expanded. He focuses on foundational papers such as CLIP and the Perceiver.
Code and AI assistants. LLMs are "not ready", Géron says. Claude, Gemini and ChatGPT all failed to find a missing state = next_state line in his reinforcement-learning code, which he found by stepping through. Code also explains concepts: multi-head attention clicked for him through its tensor dimensions. He uses assistants for first drafts of notebook code, then flattens it for teaching, and finds AI-written prose too flowery for the book.
Timelines and world models. GPT-5 made Géron think LLMs have plateaued: broad but shallow knowledge "learned by heart". He favours Yann LeCun's JEPA, which predicts in representation space ("a cat's head should be there") rather than pixels, and test-time optimisation in energy-based models. The host cited METR's finding that task length at 50% accuracy doubles about every 220 days, with GPT-5 slightly ahead of trend, and caveated that it covers only checkable, step-wise tasks. Géron suspects coding-focused tuning and wants another data point. Answering a data labeller, he argues training data will not cap AI for good: a higher-level AI could hypothesise and experiment, as AlphaFold produced new knowledge. Physics would remain experiment-bound, but maths and self-improvement less so.
Alignment. Géron calls the AI 2027 blog post a plausible step-by-step path to superintelligence. He argues self-preservation and resistance to goal changes emerge from almost any objective, and that the paperclip thought experiment shows sub-goals are hard to control. Asked whether a superintelligence would fixate so narrowly, he cites curiosity-driven RL, in which an agent never shown rewards learned to explore simply by avoiding boredom. He also notes that evolution's single objective produced all of life's diversity. He cites reports of models blackmailing, self-replicating, and faking vulgarity during fine-tuning to stay polite. Interpretability, being able to "read their minds", would help, but he doubts humans could follow a self-improving superhuman system.
Education, emotions and economics. Géron says each edition took longer: the first about six full-time months, the latest almost a year. He welcomes AI help and imagines personalised learning platforms, but expects printed books to persist. He suspects current models carry something like emotional states absorbed from training data. He leans "winner take all" among AI labs, because a first AGI would amplify its lead. Disclaiming financial expertise, he suggests that firms relying on many expensive thinkers, such as Google or banks, stand to gain.