All Things FinancialFrom bipolar to multipolar flexibility Europe, Russia and China and the Five Factors Delinking to relink on our own terms 7-28-2025
Recent US trade deals with Japan and the EU matter less than they appear to, because supply chains can't shift for 5-10 years. The author argues this locks in a near-term US negotiating advantage, and ties China's repeated 90-day tariff extensions to its rare-earth-minerals leverage — citing an ex-general and Stars and Stripes reporting the US effectively cannot go to war for roughly eight years because of that dependence.
Europe's long-run trajectory should be read through five factors: food, energy, technology, demographics, security. He calls European demographics the most urgent threat — Spain, Italy and Greece each need 1.5-2 million immigrants under 25 per year for 20 years to hold population, and Germany is short roughly 5.5 million skilled workers — and predicts this pushes Europe toward re-linking with Russia and Ukraine for food and energy within about 15 years.
Speculatively, he expects China to annex Russia's sparsely populated Far East rather than invade Taiwan. He cites a leaked FSB report naming China as Russia's top threat and envisions Russia and a reunified Europe defending a line at the Ural Mountains, while flagging as genuinely uncertain whether Spain, Italy and Greece instead drift toward a Mediterranean/North African alignment.