geopolitics
Polis Pandit$The Left Failed the Hamas Test, and Making Sense of This World
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Polis Pandit$Israel-Palestine: We All Need To Educate Ourselves
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GeoHussarAsk me about the 🌍 10/1/2023
synopsis
In this solo TikTok question-and-answer live from October 1, 2023, the host's settled position is one of guarded optimism: the dollar is not going to zero, BRICS is a joke, the US is heading toward mild deflation that the Fed can handle, and US dominance will last decades. The serious risks the host names lie elsewhere — China's debt-laden property sector, Putin's unwinnable war, and an aged, money-captured US political class.
Ground rules. The host refuses to give trading advice on gold, forex, oil or crypto, citing lawyers' warnings that disclaimers do not prevent class-action exposure, while acknowledging holding some Bitcoin and basic stocks. The only advice offered: diversify, save and live beneath your means.
Geopolitics in brief. On Armenia and Azerbaijan, the host expects Azerbaijan to press further and the US to profit from Armenia's turn from Russia. On a Serbian group's killing of police in Kosovo, the host calls Serbs fiercely patriotic and suspects pre-election tension-raising. On Ukraine, the host predicts Putin's eventual replacement, arguing that Putin, Biden, Trump and Pelosi are all too old. On Iraq, the host says the US won militarily but should never have invaded a functional secular state, alleging the war aimed at cheap oil.
Markets and the US economy. Asked about Saudi and Chinese Treasury sales, the host attributes Saudi selling to reserves depleted since COVID. The host expects disinflation shading into deflation, a resilient housing market, rising wages and a $12–13 minimum wage, and says economic forecasts beyond six to twelve months are guesswork. For judging economic strength, the host watches trade balances, housing starts, job growth and labor-force participation rather than the S&P 500.
China, India and Africa. The host repeats the $23 trillion local-debt figure, calls the Chinese military a paper tiger, and predicts China will feint at Taiwan while eyeing Outer Manchuria. On India, the host says Modi has done good things on paper but mistreats minorities, and blames British rule for wrecking one of the world's largest economies. The host argues the US would arm China's targets rather than fight China directly, and that China's African infrastructure beats French extraction.
Advice to graduates. Outside tech, nursing, real estate or a strong social-media presence, the host calls it a bad time for an average degree; the advice is to live spartanly, avoid credit cards, join a community and take any job while building skills, recalling PhDs working as cashiers during the Great Recession.
US politics. The host backs forced retirement at 75 for officeholders, says Trump should never hold office again, predicts a Biden 2024 win if his health holds, and would campaign against Citizens United and gerrymandering. The host identifies with neither party and supports more strikes because wages lag inflation.
- The Ukraine war will likely end with Putin replaced, the host predicts. High oil prices let Russia fund the war for a long time, but the host argues Russia can damage Ukraine without ever conquering it, given better-equipped, more motivated Ukrainian defenders. On Armenia and Azerbaijan, the host expects more Azerbaijani punitive action, Armenia drifting further from Russia, and the US building ties with both.
- China's local-government debt is the real threat to its economy. The host puts it at $23 trillion and says about 40% of the real-estate market is in default, so developers and lenders lose both principal and interest in a domino effect. The host does not expect a Taiwan invasion soon, instead speculating China may move on Outer Manchuria, which Russia took in 1860.
- The US is drifting toward deflation, not stagflation or collapse. The host expects the Fed to print money once inflation turns negative, sees no housing crash while inventory is low and demand high, and calls the Cuban Missile Crisis closer to world war than today. Saudi Arabia is selling Treasuries to rebuild reserves down over $200 billion since COVID, while China buys other US agency bonds.
- The West must treat Africa better to blunt China. The host calls France the worst colonizer, claiming some former colonies pay about 85% of national income to France for colonial-era infrastructure. Chinese roads, bridges and factories cannot be siphoned off like cash aid, and the host urges the West to follow Japan's approach of aid since the 1970s.
- Officeholders need age limits and money out of politics. The host proposes mandatory retirement at 75 with frequent competency exams, and calls Trump's indictments justified for an insurrection. The host predicts Biden wins in 2024 if he survives, RFK Jr. draws Republican votes, and a Modi third term would risk dictatorship; Citizens United and gerrymandering should go.
Polis Pandit$How I Am Handling Grief
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GeoHussarWith Economist Christopher Clarke
synopsis
Economist Christopher Clarke, then teaching in Washington state, ends up holding a measured mainstream position across every topic the host raises: the US is not in a "silent depression", a modest minimum-wage rise is safe but $20 is beyond the evidence, the Fed has the tools to prevent deflation, immigration and looser housing rules pay off over years, and worker underpayment is better explained by employer market power than by Marx. The host, more radical in places, mostly comes round or keeps the disagreement narrow.
The silent-depression meme. The host praises Clarke's rebuttal of a viral claim comparing today to 1933. Clarke says such claims spread because they validate real struggle, even when the statistics disagree; he faults a local news piece for interviewing an economist who "phoned it in". The host counters that markets and workers' lives have diverged, noting the federal minimum has sat at $7.25 since 2009.
Minimum wage and housing. Both favor building more housing, which creates construction jobs and frees income for other spending. Asked whether the minimum could match the 1950s–1970s trend near $20, Clarke explains the deflator mismatch in the famous productivity chart and puts the historic peak at $11–13 in today's money, noting Washington's indexed state minimum near $14.80.
Deflation and inflation measures. The host explains watching for deflation rather than hyperinflation, citing Chinese, Indian and EU producer prices. Clarke expects the Fed to respond aggressively, credits its 2009 response with preventing a repeat of the 1930s, and says the COVID stimulus applied that lesson. On the latest 3.7% reading he urges watching core and moving averages, compares the host's favoured Truflation index with the Billion Prices Project, and recounts the Argentine discrepancy.
Immigration. The host argues anti-immigrant policies in states like Florida are leaving crops unharvested; Clarke says he has seen anecdotes but no careful studies. He makes the long-run case, citing inventor immigration, the H-1B lottery and the Philippine nursing research. Asked why Biden has not been more pro-immigrant, he calls it a political puzzle, noting New York City, an economy roughly Russia's size, is paying migrants' costs because they cannot yet work legally.
Zoning and segregation. The host blames real-estate lobbying for New York's prohibitive building rules; Clarke contrasts Houston's light zoning and cheap rents, but says living there showed him how redlining still shapes segregated neighborhoods and wealth generations later.
Argentina, Lebanon and development. The host attributes Argentina's cycles to oscillating populism; Clarke instead blames weak institutions, citing private banks that stole deposits with impunity. Asked how a country like Lebanon recovers, he points to South Korea, Taiwan and Poland, which has had perhaps the second-fastest growth after China in 20 years. The host welcomes coups in Niger and Gabon as ending French exploitation through the CFA franc arrangements, while flagging an 85%-of-income claim as unverified, and prefers Chinese infrastructure lending; Clarke stresses that foreign investment is necessary but must be negotiated on equal terms, citing William Easterly on leakage from World Bank loans.
Marx and labor. Clarke recommends Rosa Luxemburg over Marx and Engels, then explains marginal productivity theory and Joan Robinson's monopsony model. The host says profit becomes exploitation only in excess and wants organized labor; Clarke agrees labor markets are not naturally competitive, cites the 1819 Peterloo Massacre, and is agnostic between unions and other protections. The host closes explaining the "GeoHussar" name, from the Polish hussars at the 1683 relief of Vienna.
- The productivity–pay chart overstates how high the minimum wage can go. On calls for roughly $20 an hour, economist Christopher Clarke says the chart deflates output with the GDP deflator but wages with CPI, and the gap shrinks on a common index. The highest inflation-adjusted federal minimum, in the 1960s, equals about $11–13 today, a safe range; labor's falling income share is real but dates from around 2000, not the 1970s.
- The Fed would fight deflation hard if it arrived. The host has watched Chinese producer prices fall about 4% and consumer prices turn slightly negative; Clarke expects the Fed to cut and print, as during 2009's brief deflation. He says 2008 bank rescue loans were largely repaid with interest while homeowner relief was too small, a lesson applied in the COVID stimulus.
- Official inflation data are generally sound; Argentina is the exception. With headline inflation at 3.7% and core falling, Clarke points to Alberto Cavallo's Billion Prices Project, which applies government methods to scraped online prices. It found statistical agencies broadly reliable, except Argentina in 2007–2013, whose official inflation appeared to be about a third of the actual rate.
- Immigration, including low-skilled, is a long-run net gain. Clarke says about 80% of studies find a net benefit, through entrepreneurship and greater productive capacity that eventually eases prices, and that H-1B visas run out by April. Research on Indian and Philippine migration finds sending countries gain too, such as more Philippine nursing schools; New York's migrant costs stem from delayed work authorization.
- Monopsony, not the labor theory of value, explains underpaid workers. Clarke says the 1870s marginal revolution showed competitive wages equal workers' marginal product; Joan Robinson's 1933 work on employer market power explains pay below productivity more clearly than Marx. He attributes union decline mainly to shrinking manufacturing employment rather than Reagan alone, and notes Nordic economies innovate despite near-universal unionization.
Polis Pandit$Why I Am Documenting My Life More
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Polis Pandit$Is There No Success Without Pain?
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Polis Pandit$We Need More Philosophers
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Polis Pandit$Vivek and Trump: How To Get Rich from Failure
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Polis Pandit$What Is Up with Vivek Ramaswamy?
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Mr. GlobalDefending Oliver Anthony
- Oliver Anthony rejects the political figures claiming his song. After defending the singer over his song's second verse, he plays a clip of Anthony saying it aggravates him to see conservative news, musicians and politicians act like his allies to ride the song's attention. Anthony says the song is bigger than Joe Biden and was written about the people on the presidential debate stage where it was played.
Polis Pandit$We Need To Take "Rich Men North of Richmond" Seriously
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Polis Pandit$Trump Indicted AGAIN, Democracy v. Republic, and Rand Paul's Coup In Niger
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Polis Pandit$Octogenarians In Politics, Credit Card Competition Act, Impeaching Biden, Alabama Defies the Law, and Why You Should Care About Shohei Ohtani
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Polis Pandit$Are You Complicit In Cobalt Mining? Plus Trump's Fascist Second Term Plans, DeSantis and Nazism, and Goodbye Credit Card Points
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Polis Pandit$On Death and Dying, Actors/Writer Strike, Microsoft and Activision, I Love Threads, and a Male Problem
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Polis Pandit$China and AI, Code Interpreter, THREADS, and NATO Summit
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Polis Pandit$Will the NYC Red Haze Be Our Future?
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Polis Pandit$What Will Happen If We Don’t Regulate AI Now
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GeoHussarThe US economy still top dog #brics
- He argues economic size alone doesn't confer reserve-currency status, citing a 73-year lag between the US overtaking Britain's economy in 1871 and the dollar becoming the world's reserve currency. He says the US economy had to reach roughly 300% the size of Britain's before the dollar took over, a threshold he says China is nowhere near.
- He argues China doesn't actually want the yuan to become the global reserve currency, because that status would force it to give up currency manipulation and let the yuan appreciate, raising the cost of its exports. He supports this with a Visual Capitalist infographic showing China has over 60 countries naming it their main trading partner versus roughly 30 for the US, driven by China's need to import raw materials and food for its manufacturing base.
- He argues the US holds a structural edge because it could go fully self-sufficient in an emergency while China could not, given China's heavy reliance on imported oil and on US naval patrols to keep its sea lanes open. He notes the US was the world's largest oil producer in 2021, outproducing Saudi Arabia by about 6 million barrels, and says he doesn't expect any country to overtake the US economy in his lifetime.
Polis Pandit$Adapt or Die With Generative AI
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Polis Pandit$The Debt Ceiling Debate: Why Warren Buffett Says It's Idiotic and Would Cripple the World Economy
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Polis Pandit$Is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. For Real?
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Polis Pandit$Don’t Believe the Hype: Media Misinformation on SpaceX Starship Launch
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GeoHussar#mexico vs #china #brics #currency #usd #bric #bricsnations #dollar #brazil #currencies #india
- Mexico can replace China as the world's manufacturing hub. The speaker says Mexican manufacturing is growing faster than ever, its skilled labour pool for one leading automaker now exceeds China's, and its minimum wage is lower than China's ("10 lower" in the captions, units unclear). Proximity to the US also sharply cuts shipping costs.
- Mexico's BRICS talk is leverage, not a real intention to join. The speaker calls the joining rumours unfounded and offers it as a personal theory that Mexico uses them to win deals. The speaker cites strong GDP and a peso that has held up well against the dollar, and wants the US to treat Mexico as a peer rather than a subordinate.
GeoHussar#brics #currency vs #usd #bric #bricsnations #dollar #china #brazil #russia #southafrica #india
- None of the BRICS currencies is strong enough to topple the dollar. The speaker says the real, rupee and rand have all fallen against the dollar since about 2012, and the ruble since the 2014 Crimea invasion, with ruble and rupee each at about 1.2 cents. The speaker gives inflation as about 5.6% for Brazil (US about 6%), over 11% for Russia, about 6% for India and about 7.9% for South Africa, and says China lost control of its long suppression of the yuan, which then crashed.
GeoHussar#saudiarabia and #Mexico did not join #brics #dollar #brazil #bricsnations #currencies #bric
- Neither Saudi Arabia nor Mexico has joined BRICS. Saudi Arabia has applied, but the speaker says the members have not approved it because of its petrodollar ties; Mexico has not applied. The speaker lists the members as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, all with inflation above the US except South Africa.
- Egypt's entry adds a weak economy to the bloc. The speaker reports that Egypt "just joined" and says it has poor economic growth, little oil, and currency inflation of about 31%.
GeoHussarLeading #economists not talking about the “collapsing dollar” #brics #currency #usd #dollar #yuan
- Leading economists are not predicting the dollar's collapse. The speaker searched leading economists' names alongside "petrodollar", "collapse of the dollar" and "dedollarization"; only Nouriel Roubini has said something similar, and the speaker dismisses him as having said so every year since 2005. Some economists say the petrodollar is not currently under threat.
- Their silence is telling because many enjoy criticising American capitalism. The speaker reasons they would seize the chance to be proven right if the evidence existed, concludes there is no hard evidence the petrodollar is in danger, and notes most of them worry more about wealth inequality.
GeoHussarPurchases in Yuan are not scaring me #brics #currency #usd #china #rubel l #bric #bricsnations #yuan
- Trade settled in yuan does not threaten the dollar. If yuan demand were really rising, the speaker argues, its price against the dollar should rise, yet it is doing terribly and is now being used to prop up Russia's economy and a ruble the speaker says is near a 30-year low. India got 18 countries to accept the rupee, and its price is weak too.
- The dollar is outperforming because holders of rival currencies want dollars. The speaker points to the dollar index bouncing above 101.5 after a downtrend, noting anything above 100 means the dollar beats the basket. The speaker's reading: anyone receiving rupees, yuan or rubles immediately converts them to dollars.
GeoHussar#Trumps dollar predictions
- Trump is wrong that the dollar is going down. The speaker responds to Trump's claim by noting he is no longer president and is not known for accurate predictions.
- The US is winning an economic war against China. Since the US cannot go after China as it did Libya and Iraq, the speaker says it wages economic war, chiefly through chip restrictions. The speaker describes China as only 65% food self-sufficient with rising food prices, suffering production deflation, and seeing its yuan-suppression policy backfire into a crash.
- China's debt is far larger than its economy. Citing the South China Morning Post for a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 273%, the speaker multiplies it by roughly $18 trillion of GDP and arrives at $52 trillion of debt.
GeoHussarGold standard was too old #gold #goldstandard #usd #fiat #currency #brics
- Each US exit from the gold standard was the right call. The speaker counts three since 1870: 1914, when World War One sent gold prices haywire; 1933, at the depth of the Depression, which the speaker says saved the economy; and 1971, driven not only by inflation but by foreigners exchanging dollars for gold and draining US reserves.
- A gold-backed currency launched today would be bought up with dollars. The gold standard worked when gold was a boring asset whose price barely rose a dollar a decade. The speaker argues any new gold-backed currency would simply be bought with US dollars to obtain the gold.
Polis Pandit$The New Age of Bank Runs
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Polis Pandit$Democracy and Liberal Arts Are Dying Together
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Polis Pandit$Stop Calling SVB and Signature a Bailout
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Polis Pandit$Why Moldova Is Next for Vladimir Putin
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Polis Pandit$How to End the War in Ukraine
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Polis Pandit$Putin’s Appeasers Support Historical Unity Attempts
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Polis Pandit$Why Ron DeSantis is the Most Dangerous U.S. Politician Today
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Polis Pandit$Why TikTok Will Be Banned or Divested in the United States
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Polis Pandit$The Dangerous Game of Debt Ceiling Chicken
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Polis Pandit$Avatar: The Way of Water Uses Common Tropes but With Important Messages
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Polis Pandit$American Aid to Ukraine Is Not Free
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GeoHussarWestern Europe was stupid about its energy policy
- Western Europe's energy crisis is self-inflicted. The speaker says it declined to drill at home, relied on Russia for more than 40% of its natural gas and on former colonies for other needs, and condemned the US for extracting its own fossil fuels. It is now scrambling to cover oil and gas deficits and complaining about prices.
- Europe had domestic gas it chose not to develop. The speaker says France has over a hundred years of natural gas deposits and Germany about 40, and that Europe could have built Mediterranean and Atlantic pipelines or invested in Southeastern Europe. The speaker predicts it will take years to recover.
GeoHussarThe US military is $20 trillion ahead in defense spending of everyone else
- No rival can close America's cumulative military spending lead. The speaker puts total military spending since 1980 at about $1.7 trillion for Russia and $2.1 trillion for China, against $20 trillion for the US from 1980 to 2022, on top of already having the world's best military in 1980. The speaker calls the US $18 trillion ahead, China far behind, and Russia "a pitiful joke in Ukraine".
GeoHussarUS catches up in the hypersonic race
- The US has caught up with China and Russia on hypersonic missiles. The speaker says the AGM-183A was tested in mid-March of the previous year but kept quiet to avoid escalating with Russia. The speaker puts China's missiles at up to five times the speed of sound and claims the US missile can reach up to 20 times, 15,000 mph; work has moved on to hypersonic jets.
- US lag reflected priorities, not capability. The speaker says the US shelved hypersonic projects in the 1970s, and once they became a military priority it caught up in one or two years on what took China and Russia almost two decades.
GeoHussarUK vs US troops
- War-game wins do not make UK troops better than American ones. The speaker concedes the British are better trained in some respects and that Royal Marines beat US Marines in war games the previous year, but cites Afghanistan losses: 2.3% of deployed US troops, 4.7% of UK and 5.4% of Canadian. The speaker says UK troops were 12% more likely to be killed during the War on Terror.