Exporting natural gas imports foreign prices into the US market. He argues that selling a product he puts at a fair $3–3.50 per MCF into overseas markets near $10 ties domestic prices to the international market. He cites US gas above $5, around $5.30 per MCF, even though inventories sit above the five-year average. He makes the same claim about WTI crude and gasoline over the past ten years of exports.
Industry executives and Republican lawmakers deny that exports raise prices. He calls a nearly 60-page presentation by EQT CEO Toby Rice to members of Congress propaganda. He mocks Rep. Dan Crenshaw for asking LNG terminal workers how to rebut the claim, and quotes Rep. Brett Guthrie of Kentucky calling it "junk science."
A maxed-out grid turns gas price rises into outsized electricity increases. Twenty years ago, he says, a gas price jump barely moved power bills because electricity was abundant and cheap. With the grid now at capacity, he reads small input-cost changes as compounding into volatile bills, and says a one-week cold snap can already push a bill to $1,000.
Production is not keeping pace with planned exports. He says the US already exports nearly 20 billion cubic feet a day, which makes prices far more weather-sensitive. Associated gas from the Permian has been the cushion, and he expects it to shrink as depressed oil prices cut drilling. He opposes the push toward 50 Bcf/d of exports, just under half of current US consumption, and predicts gas and power prices will rise for decades.
This winter's electric bills will carry utilities' much higher gas costs. He says utilities are paying almost 40% more for gas than a year ago. This applies to those burning gas for power in the upper Midwest, the East Coast and the Northeast corridor. He expects most of the increase to reach customers through fuel adjustment charges on electric bills arriving over the next four to six weeks. He predicts public outrage and hard questions for the Trump administration and its donors.