He expects Putin to fall soon as Ukraine pushes Russia out. The piece opens on the report that Ukrainian drones hit 35 Russian ships in the Sea of Azov over 4 days, meeting nothing that stopped them. He calls Putin the biggest dictator of his generation and says he will celebrate the day it happens.
He blames Russia's failure on corruption, and draws a domestic parallel. His reading is that a powerful nation run by a strongman cannot beat a much smaller opponent because corruption wasted its resources, which he calls "eerily familiar." He adds that Putin's fall will be a horrible day for MAGA, which he says loves him.
The MOU is a two-party deal for a four-party problem. Its first paragraph requires Israel to cease its conflict with Lebanon, but only the US and Iran signed; Israel and Hezbollah, whose actions decide whether it holds, have no obligation to it and receive nothing from it. He expects the strait to keep opening and closing until both are either at the table or out of the equation.
He argues Iran wrote in terms it knew Washington couldn't meet. In his reading, Iran knew Trump cannot make Netanyahu stop striking Lebanon, so each Israeli strike gives Iran grounds to close Hormuz, each closure hits the global economy, and a president who has said he needs the deal grows more desperate and pays more.
Iran is the one profiting from the on-off strait. He says Iran has moved 20 million barrels of oil out through Hormuz while closing it twice in as many days, more than anyone else, and cites the Institute for the Study of War as calling the deal ridiculous. His conclusion is that Iran is still at war with the US.
The negotiation has turned the US and Israel against each other. He reads this as deliberate on Iran's part: Iran knew Israel would never accept the Lebanon condition and that Trump would sign anyway, leaving the two allies at odds rather than producing peace.
Every exit from the trap is bad. He runs through the options: cutting Israeli military aid (political suicide in the US), decoupling Lebanon from the deal, bypass infrastructure that would take years, further strategic reserve releases that will run out, higher US output, rationing, or absorbing the inflation and waiting.