Souk's Notes - Unofficial Summaries

Unofficial, machine-generated summaries, as of 2026-11-09.

Dr. Jon KrohnHow Language and AI Will Reshape Human Society (with Natalie Monbiot)
  • Small changes to a technology like language can reshape civilization. Monbiot cites a scholar's argument that the ancient Greeks' addition of vowels made expression more fluid and helped language spread, contributing to the birth of democracy, an impact only visible in hindsight. She argues AI's effect on humanity is similarly impossible to predict yet but probably huge.
  • Advanced language arrived long after brains capable of it, the host says. He puts sophisticated language at only tens of thousands of years old while saying Homo sapiens have been genetically "pretty much the same for millions of years", and tells listeners to double-check that fact rather than quote him.
Mr. GlobalWe Will FAFO With The Climate
  • He argues Western clean-energy efforts won't meaningfully affect the climate given China and India's coal expansion. He says China is adding 200 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity and will soon generate more electricity from coal alone than the US produces from all sources combined, with India following a similar coal-heavy growth path.
  • He calls renewable energy in the West fundamentally a business model rather than a climate solution. He says the Net Zero by 2050 goal "was not a thing" and reiterates a prediction he's made before, despite past criticism, that economic growth will continue to be prioritized over environmental policy.
  • He predicts AI's energy demand will further strain the trade-off between economic growth and emissions. He argues green energy will have to match fossil fuels' output capability to displace them, which he says isn't happening, and frames the climate outcome as effectively already decided.
Mr. GlobalThis Happens Because We Allow It
  • He argues a defense-secretary group-chat scandal over Yemen war planning won't produce consequences because voters don't demand them. Reacting to a senator's question about the chat going unanswered, he says the public tolerates official misconduct as long as their side "wins."
  • He blames a bipartisan culture of tolerating lies for eliminating accountability in politics. He says this is why no one is arrested or fired over scandals, comparing it to a football coach kept regardless of conduct as long as he beats a rival.
  • He says the underlying acceptance, not any single official, explains how unqualified people reach powerful posts. He cites Pete Hegseth's appointment as Defense Secretary as an example, arguing half the country supported it based on loyalty to the person who chose him rather than his qualifications.
Polis PanditWhen Social Media Success Causes Controversy
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Dr. Jon Krohn873: Become Your Best Self Through AI Augmentation — feat. Natalie Monbiot
synopsis

Natalie Monbiot, back six months after episode 823 and now an independent adviser after leaving Hour One, ends up holding that AI should be used to free people to be more human: to unlock ingenuity, flow and peace, and to double down on embodied experience, rather than to outsource thinking, which she argues is already making users dumber and opening an "intelligence divide".

Meaning makers. The host invited her back because of her blog, The Augmented Human. Monbiot says the book God, Human, Animal, Machine, her recommendation last time, set off months of writing, including an op-ed in the Polish magazine Przekrój on whether we are ceding humanity to machines. She rejects the common narrative of humans as lemmings building AI that will drive them to extinction. Humans are the meaning makers: they created this opportunity and this mess, and cooperating to fix messes is what they do best.

AI as cognitive evolution. Through Varun Godbole she found John Vervaeke's 50-hour lecture series The Meaning Crisis. From it she takes the idea that language was a human-made "psychotechnology" that enabled self-reflection, and that the Greeks' addition of vowels helped spread language and give rise to democracy. AI, she argues, is the next such step, with effects as impossible to predict. The host adds his own chain from clay tablets to ChatGPT and OpenAI's o1, and forecasts that within years a single data center could hold a million Nobel-level machines, the "powerful AI" of Dario Amodei's essay.

Augmentation, not outsourcing. Monbiot sets alignment aside to ask how such AI can strengthen human agency. She cites studies that cognitive capability declines when people let LLMs do their thinking, which she fears will produce a divide between those building AI and everyday users growing dumber. The roughly 15% average gain for white-collar workers reported by Ethan Mollick and others does not impress her. She prefers Andrew Ng's 10x engineer, freed rather than merely faster, and the former Drift CEO's AI-native startup whose first post-engineer hire was a lawyer also running HR. People will need lateral thinking and less ego, she argues. Yet she concedes that "anyone can code now" is not yet true for her: she had to go back to a Python course after trying to build too soon.

Flow, peace and distraction. She finds LLM help with writing pulls her drafts toward the mean, so she reinserts the insights it averages out. She names flow and peace as the two states she strives for. The host agrees, describing a constant pull of opportunities that keeps him frenetic. He argues ad-funded free platforms profit from fearful content that keeps people from putting the phone down, while acknowledging his own show carries ads. Monbiot hopes AI agents can take over enough legwork to free people from feeds. She concedes tuning in to oneself is exhausting, and that some people find purpose in going to work.

Embodiment and twins. Contrasting dictionaries, Google and LLMs, she argues the new imperative is embodied, real-world experience AI lacks. The host sketches a product idea of his own: an embodied AI that steers him back to flow or peace. Monbiot closes on her "virtual human economy" work: advising a startup that gives vetted experts monetizable AI twins able to work in any language, and building a healthcare CEO's twin in Slack to carry his values to employees, including those of a recently acquired company. The host flags liability as open.

  • Humans should be AI's meaning makers, not lemmings off a cliff. Monbiot traces her recent writing to the book God, Human, Animal, Machine, which she recommended on her previous appearance (episode 823), and to an op-ed in the Polish magazine Przekrój asking whether we are ceding humanity to machines. Her answer: humans created the opportunity and the mess, and are good at cooperating to fix messes.
  • AI is part of human cognitive evolution, as language was. Drawing on John Vervaeke's lecture series The Meaning Crisis, she calls language a "psychotechnology" that enabled self-reflection and cites his argument that Greek vowels helped give birth to democracy. AI is part of us the way language is, but not all of us, because humans are embodied and embedded in the world.
  • Leaning on LLMs risks a "great intelligence divide". Monbiot cites studies that users' cognitive capabilities decline when LLMs do their thinking, and dismisses the roughly 15% average gain for white-collar workers as uncompelling. She favours Andrew Ng's 10x-engineer framing, and the example of an AI-native startup whose first post-engineer hire was a lawyer also running HR, as signs AI should demand more of people.
  • LLM drafting drags writing toward the mean. Monbiot says the more iterations she does with an LLM, the more her "aha" insights get averaged out and she has to reinsert them, so she is unsure it saves her time. She and the host agree the states worth optimizing for are flow and peace; the host argues free, ad-funded platforms are built to keep users in a frenetic, fearful state instead.
  • Everyone will have AI twins working on their behalf, she predicts. Monbiot's "virtual human economy" thesis drives her advisory work for a startup offering vetted experts AI twins that can earn consulting income in any language, and a custom twin of a healthcare CEO deployed in Slack to carry company culture. The host describes his own early idea for an embodied AI that would steer him back toward flow and peace.
Mr. GlobalTrump Takes Credit For Biden’s Work
  • He disputes Trump's claim that tariffs drove a Hyundai manufacturing investment, saying the deal predates his presidency. He notes the announcement itself credits the Biden administration's push for US-based manufacturing and related EV subsidies, which he says explains the investment better than recently threatened tariffs.
  • He argues corporate investment decisions like this take years to plan and aren't triggered by tariff rhetoric within weeks. He points out Trump has repeatedly threatened tariffs without fully implementing them, undercutting the claim that this investment responds to tariff policy.
  • He says consumer demand, not the president, explains why companies build cars and steel plants in the US. He cites high US demand for vehicles and notes a Louisiana governor's longer-running work on such projects, arguing credit is being misattributed.
Mr. GlobalHow Natural Gas Prices Are Set
  • Natural gas prices have more than doubled year over year, from $1.78/MCF to $3.90/MCF, on a tight first storage build of the season. He attributes this to storage entering spring roughly 650 billion cubic feet below last year's level after one of the coldest winters in years, particularly in the Northeast.
  • He identifies record LNG exports, falling production, and record summer heat as the three drivers behind sustained higher prices. He says prior low prices discouraged production even as demand and exports rose, and that hotter summers increase electricity-driven cooling demand, both limiting how much inventory can be rebuilt before next winter.
  • He predicts a prolonged run of bullish natural gas prices and warns deregulated states will see the sharpest bill increases. He notes this week's inventory build was only about 8 billion cubic feet, calling it negligible, and expects a hot summer followed by another cold winter to compound the squeeze, particularly in the deregulated Northeast Corridor, West Coast, and Texas markets.
Mr. GlobalTrump Is Going After Big Oil
  • He reads a new 25% tariff on countries buying Venezuelan oil and gas as retaliation against big oil, not just a Venezuela sanction. He connects it to a prior meeting where oil executives reportedly told Trump they need $80 oil to "drill, baby, drill," which he says the administration didn't get.
  • He says Chevron and Shell were seeking new customers for Venezuelan oil and gas in Europe and Trinidad and Tobago as US sanctions cut off other markets, making the tariff a direct hit on their pivot. He frames this as punishing companies indirectly since Trump won't criticize big oil outright given its political power.
  • He reports oil trading above $69, nearing $70, amid Middle East military buildup, new Venezuela sanctions, and delayed April 2 tariffs pulled back over recession fears. He argues these combined pressures are pushing oil and gas prices up, reiterating his view that weakening the economy is not an effective way to lower prices.
Mr. GlobalThe All Too Common Question About Ethanol
  • He says Unleaded 88 (15% ethanol) is safe for most vehicles despite being cheaper than Unleaded 87 (10% ethanol). He clarifies it is not the same as E85, which exceeds 50% ethanol, and says the lower price reflects a subsidy, not lower quality.
  • He cites decades of real-world use and EPA testing as evidence against harm claims. He argues hundreds of millions of cars have driven tens of billions of miles on the fuel without mass problems emerging, and that modern anti-corrosive components and non-rubber fuel lines address the concerns raised about ethanol.
  • He recommends checking the owner's manual, since some vehicles, especially those built before 2001 or classic cars, aren't rated for it. He says E85 should only go in flex-fuel vehicles and not be substituted into standard engines.
Mr. GlobalEPA Pulls Massive Offshore Wind Permit (With A Twist)
  • The EPA pulled the federal permit for a 1.5-gigawatt New Jersey offshore wind project, citing construction-phase air pollution concerns. He notes the project, built by Atlantic Shores with Shell as an investor, lost its clean air permit over an emissions rationale he treats as pretextual.
  • He identifies the group celebrating the permit pull, Save LBI, as led by liberals rather than conservatives, which surprised him. He names Dr. Bob Stern, a former Department of Energy official and Obama campaign worker, as the group's head, and says its real goal is pushing turbines 30-57 miles offshore, out of sight of Long Beach Island.
  • He compares this to Trump barring drilling off Florida's coast, arguing both cases reflect "not in my backyard" motives dressed up as environmental concern. He frames the episode as evidence that opposition to visible energy infrastructure crosses party lines when it affects a group's own coastline.
Dr. Jon KrohnHow to Build a Winning AI Strategy in a Competitive World (with Richmond Alake)
  • Build AI strategy on pillars and objective truths, then derive tactics. Alake, who leads and mentors AI teams at MongoDB, calls this the year of "show me the money" for AI and says his method is first-principles: identify the pillars around a persona, then the things within each pillar that will not change short of a platform shift. His example for a developer-focused strategy is GitHub as a pillar, asking what developers actually do there, then forming convictions, assumptions and tactics from that.
Mr. GlobalMr Wonderful Can’t Math
  • He disputes claims by Trump and investor Kevin O'Leary ("Mr. Wonderful") that ANWR drilling could pay off a large share of the national debt. He cites EIA estimates of about 10.5 billion barrels in ANWR and calculates that, at a 16.67% royalty rate and $70/barrel, the royalties would cover only about 20% of one year's interest on the debt.
  • He extends the math to show even total global oil control couldn't solve the debt. He calculates that if the US owned 100% of global oil profits at 100 million barrels/day of world consumption, it would still take 36 years to pay off the national debt.
  • He says he doesn't believe O'Leary actually believes his own claim and attributes it to political messaging. He argues the idea that natural resources could pay off the debt is "a fantasy" with no realistic scenario behind it.
Mr. GlobalSocial Security IS An Entitlement. Hear Me Out!
  • He argues energy, not military or financial power alone, will determine which nations dominate the future. He illustrates household energy inequality by noting a single home refrigerator uses more power than 25% of the world's population consumes.
  • He links US geopolitical ambitions toward Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal to a drive for energy and resource dominance. He argues nations that take energy security for granted, including the US, are unusual globally, since even many industrialized countries can't reliably count on power being available.
  • He says roughly a billion people worldwide have no access to energy, which he ties directly to lost economic, educational, and social opportunity. He argues lack of energy access disproportionately traps women and children in unpaid labor, and predicts wars will continue to be fought over energy control.
Mr. GlobalTime For Class! He Who Controls The Energy Rules The World.
  • He argues energy, not military or financial power alone, will determine which nations dominate the future. He illustrates household energy inequality by noting a single home refrigerator uses more power than 25% of the world's population consumes.
  • He links US geopolitical ambitions toward Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal to a drive for energy and resource dominance. He argues nations that take energy security for granted, including the US, are unusual globally, since even many industrialized countries can't reliably count on power being available.
  • He says roughly a billion people worldwide have no access to energy, which he ties directly to lost economic, educational, and social opportunity. He argues lack of energy access disproportionately traps women and children in unpaid labor, and predicts wars will continue to be fought over energy control.
Mr. GlobalFor Me, It’s About The Lies
  • He accuses Energy Secretary Chris Wright of posting misleading "promises kept" propaganda about falling gas prices. He says the cited figures — $3.46 a year ago versus $3.07 today — are accurate but omit that gas was actually a penny cheaper on election day than it is now, undercutting the "promise kept" framing.
  • He notes Republicans previously called gas at $3 in late December, just months earlier, the lowest in four years, which he says makes the current framing inconsistent. He argues the same price level was cast as evidence of Biden's failure and is now cast as evidence of Trump's success.
  • He frames his objection as being about dishonesty itself, not the price of gas. He says he was already reporting falling gas prices six months earlier and was dismissed at the time, and that the real issue is being lied to, not the few-cent difference in price.
Mr. GlobalExplaining The New 5 Minute Charge EV
  • BYD announced a 1,000-volt EV architecture enabling a full charge in about six minutes or 400 km added in five minutes. He confirms the technical claim but says this milestone alone doesn't mean fast EV charging is imminent for consumers.
  • He argues the charging infrastructure needed to deliver that speed doesn't exist yet, including in the US. He says building a car capable of the charge rate is separate from building chargers that can supply it, and that plugging such a vehicle into today's superchargers would only charge at current speeds.
  • He predicts this remains a distant prospect, especially in the US given its slow transmission buildout. He notes the US hasn't finished its existing charging network, let alone one supporting this new standard, and says such fast charging wouldn't be done at home regardless.
Dr. Jon KrohnBeyond Agents: Why 2025 is the "Multi" Era (with Richmond Alake)
  • This is the "multi" era, not just the year of agents. Alake calls 2025 the "multi" era: agents went mainstream this year, so leaders should look further ahead: to multi-agent architectures, multimodal embeddings covering text, images, video and audio in one space, multilingual embeddings, multi-step reasoning, and multiple retrieval mechanisms, since "vector search is not all you need".
  • Voice agents will be widely built but won't dominate, he predicts. Alake expects everyone to experiment with voice interfaces given AI's experimental nature, while holding a strong opinion that voice will not become the main way people engage with agents.
  • Memory management will become a central agent-design problem. He recounts that Andrew Ng's first question to him, in April of last year, was how to model memory in agentic systems, and argues agents will need several forms of memory and recall, as human brains do.
Stock TokThis Screener Just Flagged 2 Strong Buy Setups 🔎
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Dr. Jon KrohnThe "AI Stack" Explained — Building Smarter Applications (with Richmond Alake)
  • The AI stack is described differently to executives and to developers. Alake, whose blog post on AI stacks the host says was the top Google result for the term at recording, gives executives three layers: application (e.g. Cursor), tooling (e.g. MongoDB) and compute (e.g. Nvidia). For developers he breaks it into more layers, including programming language, model provider and database.
  • Choice of programming language constrains the rest of the AI stack. Alake stresses that many libraries further up the stack exist only in Python or only in JavaScript, though some are evolving to support both, so the language decision comes early and matters.
Mr. Global“Clean” Companies Aren’t As Clean As You Think
  • He argues Google's "clean" Oklahoma data center isn't adding clean power, just reallocating it. He reports Google signed power purchase agreements for 724 megawatts from Oklahoma solar farms, using as much power as over 700,000 homes, while only one of those solar farms is newly built for the project.
  • He says the homes previously served by that existing solar power will now largely fall back on fossil fuels. He cites EIA data showing a new megawatt of wind or solar displaces less than 20% of a megawatt of natural gas capacity, meaning roughly 5 megawatts of wind or solar are needed to offset one megawatt of gas.
  • He concludes this is a reshuffling of clean power rather than a net emissions reduction, though he still welcomes the jobs. He argues companies buying up existing renewable supply to claim cleanliness pushes remaining consumers toward dirtier sources without improving the state's overall energy mix.
Crosstalk SolutionsNEW! TangoPBX Community Forums - Join Us Today!
  • ClearlyIP has opened a community forum for an unexplained TangoPBX. The forum is live at community.tangopbx.org; the host, who calls himself a big fan of ClearlyIP, declines to say what TangoPBX is and calls the forum the first in a series of announcements due over the coming months. He is "Crosstalk" on the forums.
  • The host says FreePBX's own forums have driven users away. He attributes this to a noticeable lack of interest and engagement from Sangoma, FreePBX's parent company, and to heavy-handed moderation, which he says caused an exodus. He presents the new forum as ClearlyIP's attempt to rebuild a welcoming open-source PBX community, which he calls desperately needed.
Mr. GlobalLowering Oil Prices Won’t Necessarily Lower Inflation
  • He argues Trump's Ukraine peace push, aimed at lowering oil prices to cut inflation, rests on a flawed assumption, citing 2019 as precedent. He notes oil was about $10/barrel cheaper in 2019 than 2018 after Trump moved to crash the market, yet inflation rose that year, with energy, food, and — via lumber tariffs on Canada, now reimposed — home prices all increasing.
  • He says ending the war wouldn't necessarily lower oil prices anyway, since Russia and Saudi Arabia have no incentive to cut output. He argues Russia keeps producing and selling at sanctioned discounts while both countries' economies depend on current price levels, meaning supply and pricing power stay largely unchanged.
  • He warns that lower oil prices could squeeze already-tight natural gas supply and push electricity costs up instead. He also argues that even successfully lowering inflation enough to cut interest rates would raise home prices further in an already tight housing market, offsetting any gain at the pump.
Dr. Jon Krohn872: Microsoft’s “Majorana 1” Chip Brings Quantum ML Closer — with Jon Krohn (@JonKrohnLearns)
  • This upload holds a different episode than its title names. The video posted as 872 is a copy of episode 870 on OpenAI's Deep Research: both run 17:10, their captions are identical, and neither mentions the Majorana 1 chip. Episode 870's summary, dated 2025-03-14, covers what the video says.
Dr. Jon KrohnMongoDB Combines NoSQL and Vector Databases (with Richmond Alake)
  • MongoDB Atlas exists because no developer wants to be a database administrator. Alake describes Atlas as a managed, distributed MongoDB running across AWS, Azure and Google Cloud in multiple regions, bundled with streaming and dedicated search nodes.
  • Vector spaces place similar meanings close together. The host explains embeddings from Tomas Mikolov's word2vec, around 2011–2012, which learns a word's meaning from surrounding words without labels; in a trained space, spelling variants coincide, NoSQL sits near MongoDB, and dimensions can run to hundreds or thousands. Documents embedded the same way let RAG systems retrieve relevant items from, say, a million documents by a query's meaning.
  • MongoDB folded search and vector search into one database. Alake says customers had been bolting search engines, extensions or separate databases onto MongoDB, so it added Atlas Search and then vector search, allowing lexical, vector and hybrid search in a single database where he has seen some teams run two or three.
AI Analyst LabHe helped 3000 people land data jobs - 4 techniques nobody’s talking about | Ep19
synopsis

Episode 19 of the Data Neighbor podcast has Karun Thankachan, a senior data scientist at Walmart and former Amazon applied scientist, treating the data job search as a measurable funnel. His mentees set weekly targets for connection requests and referred applications, and they measure themselves against realistic conversion rates, so that about 95% rejection reads as normal. The conversation then turns to how recommender systems are built and where LLMs help them. It ends on his claim that the most underrated skill is making connections, because new data sources, not better models, drove his biggest wins.

His background. At Walmart he builds forecasting and personalization models for item availability. He says only about 20% of the job is modeling and the value comes from finding and cleaning the right data. At Amazon he did anomaly detection and forecasting on a fintech team, then research-heavy work on employee outcomes. He contrasts data science, where the model matters little, with applied science, where novel models are expected.

A noisier market. AI screening on the employer side and AI-driven mass applications on the candidate side have flooded the market. He reports services doing four applications for a dollar, and candidates applying to close to 1,000 jobs where they once applied to about 100. He splits success between a portfolio and resume showing the role's core skills and getting someone to refer you.

The funnel. His targets are 100 LinkedIn connection requests a week, an expected 4–6% response rate, 20 referred applications a week once the network has grown, and up to three roles per referrer. Responses can take two weeks. His mentees' callback rates have roughly halved from about 10% in 2019–2020, and referred applications now return 2–3% against a former 5%. Cold email through Apollo or Hunter has matched LinkedIn's rates. A host frames the value of such benchmarks as keeping new candidates from becoming discouraged.

Resumes. Rather than tailoring each application, he keeps three or so templates by domain and copies AI-extracted keywords into the competencies section to clear the ATS bar. Beyond that bar, he says, the score does not rank candidates, and per-role tailoring breeds mistakes. Freshers with scattered projects should aim at smaller companies or at data analyst roles, where managers take more chances. Candidates with technical or business depth, most often in ads or supply chain, should build a resume around it.

Mid-career moves. The transition from senior analyst to product data scientist is the smooth one. Applied roles need a coding bar and evidence of scalable models in production. Experienced candidates most often lack a story about handling ambiguity and the end-to-end ownership that shows in how they anticipate problems. A host adds that analyses and interviews alike should state what made the work hard.

Recommender systems. He defines recommenders as making a user's implicit preferences explicit, using Netflix's top-10 popularity recommender as the simplest case. Production systems run candidate generation, real-time ranking and business-rule scoring, the last owned by teams embedded in the business. His own entry was an Amazon onboarding-content recommender mentored by a senior (L6) applied scientist, combining popularity, matrix factorization and two-tower networks with a scoring layer for level-restricted content.

LLMs and the job. He reports LLMs helping with candidate generation and normal cold start, where a little interaction data exists, and LLM item embeddings for sequential recommendation. He offers both as early results. He does not expect AI to replace data scientists soon, because tribal knowledge is never written down. His closing advice is a monthly coffee chat with another team to learn what data exists.

  • AI on both sides has made the job market noisier. Karun Thankachan, a senior data scientist at Walmart and former Amazon applied scientist who mentors job seekers, says recruiters screen with AI and ATS keyword search while candidates mass-apply. Some services do four applications for a dollar, so a candidate who might once have applied to about 100 jobs can now apply to close to 1,000. He splits the search in half: a portfolio and resume that show the role's skills, and referrals.
  • Treat the search as a funnel with weekly targets. He has mentees send 100 LinkedIn connection requests a week, the cap on the lowest Premium tier. Fewer than four to six responses means the profile needs work. He also sets 20 referred applications a week, which new users won't reach for the first three weeks or so, and notes that a referrer will typically cover up to three roles, a norm he believes Google set. His mentees' rates have fallen: callbacks from about 10% in 2019–2020 to about half that, and referred-application callbacks from about 5% to 2–3%, which he partly blames on referral-for-hire groups. Cold email found through tools like Apollo and Hunter has done no better than LinkedIn requests.
  • Keep a few templated resumes rather than tailoring each one. He kept three versions (time series/e-commerce/finance, NLP, and a mix), and he pastes each job description into an AI to pull keywords into the competencies section. In his experience the ATS is a bar to clear, not a ranking, and a human then spends 6–7 seconds on the resume. Tailoring every resume costs volume and introduces errors. For applied data science, the resume needs to show three things: data analysis and feature engineering, fitting and tuning models, and productionizing them. Freshers with scattered projects should target companies under about 2,000 employees or pivot to data analyst roles. Grad students should pair an NLP project with a generic prediction-at-scale project and a time-series project.
  • Mid-career candidates fail on ambiguity and ownership, not technique. A senior analyst can usually move to product data science without leveling down. Applied science adds a LeetCode-style coding bar and proof of models built at scale, which he says should come from personal projects or shadowing work at the current employer. The gaps he sees most are the lack of a STAR story about an ambiguous problem and never having led work end to end, which shows as missing nuance. A host adds that candidates should spell out the complexity and challenges, or the work sounds easy.
  • Recommenders run in stages, and LLMs help at the front. He describes candidate generation (often matrix factorization on Spark, retrained daily by a central team), then real-time ranking, then scoring with business rules, and says implicit signals are the most researched despite their noise. He reports LLMs helping with candidate generation and cold start, citing an Alibaba-linked paper whose name he says he is unsure of, and a 2024 "hierarchical LLM" paper using LLM item embeddings for sequential recommendation, which he says to "give maybe a year" before it is refuted. He doesn't expect AI to replace data scientists because so much knowledge is never written down, and even the best documentation he has seen is about 30% incomplete. His most underrated skill is making connections: his biggest gains on mature products came from finding new data sources, not better models, so he advises at least one coffee chat a month outside your team.
Mr. GlobalWhen “Intellectuals” Lie, They Only Help Anti-Intellectuals
  • The side opposing anti-intellectualism has adopted misinformation too. Prompted by a clip of a man asking whether Canada will build pipelines and ship LNG to Europe and who is telling the truth, he argues that seeing misinformation work, "intellectuals" abandoned their core beliefs and began lying on energy and climate, which only helps the anti-intellectual side.
  • Net zero by 2050 was always impossible. He says the official road map shows the world was years behind from day one, and that politicizing climate as with COVID led both sides to lie: every storm blamed on oil companies, every blackout on renewables.
  • Energy should have been framed as security, not climate. He argues demand will skyrocket regardless of climate change, and that presenting it as a national-security need for all sources would have avoided the fight; instead the push to eliminate oil ignored that every society, its food, water, electricity and even the COVID vaccine, rests on fossil fuels.
  • Escalating partisanship is pushing both parties toward authoritarian control. He says each side believes it needs total control to win and sees its own overreach as virtuous, as Biden's supporters did and Trump's now do, and expects this to outlast Trump; Canada's choices will be made by politicians, not the truth.
Scott HanselmanEPISODE 12 - Scott & Mark Learn To… Reputate
  • You can message anyone if the question is precise and theirs to answer. Hanselman recounts messaging a distinguished engineer he had never met about how the ONNX runtime does quantization for an NPU, which led to a half-hour conversation. The senior PM watching said they had never felt empowered to do that. Hanselman concedes his VP title and name probably played a part, not only the quality of the question.
  • Reputation is built by never bothering people with randomness. Mark says his title, seniority and reputation let him contact anyone. He leaves requests that could have been Googled, such as "where's the deck", read and unanswered, but answers thoughtful ones; someone at the last Ignite told him he had replied to their email 15 years earlier. Hanselman compares this to Donald Knuth's reward checks for finding errors in his books: people do their homework before approaching him.
  • Answer a good question once, publicly, and send the link. Hanselman says he turns a thoughtful question, such as an Indiana University student's email about impostor syndrome, into a blog post or other public piece and replies with the URL, so others benefit too.
  • Admitting confusion is fine only after you've done the homework. Mark says he forces himself to say "I don't understand" in meetings, but doesn't want to stop a meeting over something he should have prepared. Hanselman draws the line between not having prepped and having done the research while some points have not yet clicked, which he says is appropriate at every level.
  • At senior levels, the right point can land in the wrong venue. Mark weighs whether an opinion is deep enough to raise in a meeting with the senior leadership team and Satya. Hanselman says his VP replied "not helpful" when he made a point to 83 people that only three needed. He keeps his emails to Satya to two or three a year, and warns that asking basic questions flips the "bozo bit", which is hard to flip back.
Dr. Jon KrohnWhy MongoDB is the Database for AI Applications (with Richmond Alake)
  • MongoDB's document model mirrors how developers think. Alake contrasts relational databases' tabular rows and columns with MongoDB's key-value, JSON-like documents, and says seeing data represented the same way in the application and data layers made him a full-stack MEAN developer (MongoDB, Express, Angular, Node.js) after he had disliked programming.
  • Flexible schemas suit fast-moving AI experimentation. The host says his startups chose MongoDB around 2014 because pages' data needs were uncertain; Alake argues AI work is the same, with schemas evolving during experimentation and lockable once stable in production. The host's example is storing extra output fields from a Llama model that the OpenAI API lacks, without a schema migration.
  • JSON unifies the AI stack from LLM to database. Alake argues that with LLMs now offering JSON mode and structured output, JSON runs through the application layer, the data layer and the model, and that avoiding schema migrations matters because developer speed is a competitive advantage.
Scott HanselmanVTM is a based open-source text-based desktop environment that pushes Windows Terminal to the limit
  • VTM is a text-mode desktop that deserves far more attention. Hanselman, who says he doesn't know its developer, notes the open-source project had about 2,000 GitHub stars and argues it deserves 20,000. He likens it to DESQview, the old text-mode multitasking environment, and places it among TUIs such as Midnight Commander and Malcolm Smith's YEdit. He says the whole thing is about five megabytes.
  • Its windows behave like a desktop, with tmux-style splits. In the graphical mode he shows resizable windows with z-order that can be flung around with physics, running DOS, bash, PowerShell and Vim side by side. There is a split window manager with "empty slots" to drop terminals into, hotkeys such as Shift+Alt+W, and an XML file configuring the five launcher apps. He notes it "gets a little angry" with his three-monitor layout.
  • Run as a text app, it reattaches to detached sessions on an infinite canvas. After closing the graphical version, Hanselman starts VTM inside Windows Terminal and reconnects to the still-running processes, as screen and tmux do. Viewport markers show how far away off-screen windows are, which he likens to an infinite Canva-style terminal manager. He calls it "pretty obscure and confusing", with distinct left, right, middle and Ctrl-click behaviours.
  • Windows has long been "missing the text mode boat". Hanselman points back to his blog post of that name from 2004, 21 years earlier, and to Gui.cs for building console apps with UI. He credits both the Windows Terminal team and VTM's developer for this working inside Windows Terminal.
Polis PanditImperial Isolationism: Foreign Policy Under Trump 2.0
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Technology and FriendsAdi Polak on AI Agents and the Necessary Data Infrastructure [EPISODE 847]
  • RAG grounds an LLM in facts by two retrieval patterns. Polak, who heads developer advocacy at Confluent, distinguishes term retrieval, long available in Elasticsearch and OpenSearch but requiring the user to know the exact term, from embedding retrieval, which searches vectors by similarity so the user need not.
  • An agent is given a goal and tools, not steps. On start-up it discovers its tools (query templates, databases, web search, logs), a planner LLM decides what to run, and a judge agent checks the result. In her example of projecting three months of sales for a fashion collection, the judge sends the answer back because it ignored marketing-campaign data. Triggers need not be human: a build error can start a code assistant's agentic process.
  • Agents are microservices and need an event broker. She argues production agent systems face the old microservices problem of lost requests, solved by an immutable log such as Apache Kafka. Apache Flink then filters, joins and enriches events in real time — for instance dropping build-error events for a user who has switched that help off — and its stateful processing plus Kafka's storage can serve as the agents' short- and long-term context.
  • Exactly-once processing matters more because LLMs are non-deterministic. Temperature makes the same question yield different answers, so a duplicated event can produce repeated or contradictory suggestions. Flink's external two-phase commit protocol gives exactly-once guarantees across Flink and Kafka.
  • Confluent is adding agent-oriented features, some proprietary. Polak says the two-phase commit on both Flink and Kafka "works really, really well", and Flink now exposes richer exception context. Confluent's proprietary Flink AI lets customers register a model (such as OpenAI models on Azure) and use it as a transformer inside a Flink job, for repetitive tasks like transcripts or SQL generation, without a separate microservice.
Dr. Jon Krohn871: NoSQL Is Ideal for AI Applications — with MongoDB’s Richmond Alake
synopsis

Richmond Alake, staff developer advocate for AI/ML at MongoDB, recorded in person at the company's London office, argues that MongoDB's JSON-like document model makes it the single database an AI application needs: flexible while teams experiment, lockable in production, and able to hold operational data, metadata, vectors, and even an agent's tools and memory. He frames the coming period as an "era of multi" in which memory management becomes central. The host says MongoDB does not sponsor the episode.

Why documents fit AI. Alake contrasts relational databases' tables, around since the 1980s, with MongoDB's key-value documents. Seeing data represented the same way in the application and data layers, he says, made him fall in love with programming and become a MEAN-stack developer. The host recalls choosing MongoDB for his startups around 2014 for the same flexibility. Alake carries it to AI: requirements shift fast, schema migrations hurt developer speed, which he calls a competitive advantage, and MongoDB lets a schema flex during experimentation and be locked later. With LLMs now emitting JSON through structured output, he argues, the application, the data and the model all speak JSON. The host's example is a Llama model returning a field the OpenAI API does not.

Search and vectors in one place. Atlas, the managed service, runs across AWS, Azure and Google Cloud in multiple regions, because "no developer wants to be a database administrator". The host explains vector spaces via word2vec, then RAG retrieval over a million documents by meaning. Alake says MongoDB first absorbed the search engines customers bolted on, then vector search, so lexical, vector and hybrid search run in one database where some teams had run two or three. For layered explanations he points to his AI-stack post: application, tooling and compute for executives; more layers, starting with programming language, for developers.

Memory and tools. His library Memorizz grew from customers' agent problems. As RAG gave way to agentic RAG in late 2024 and 2025, he says, how memory is structured, stored and retrieved began to govern reliability, an area also pursued by Letta, the company behind MemGPT, and by the HippoRAG paper. The common failure is running out of context window, not memory. Since OpenAI's guidance is to put only 10 to 20 tool schemas in context, his "MongoDB as a toolbox" pattern stores perhaps a thousand tools with embeddings and retrieves two or three before each call.

The multi era. Agents went mainstream this year, so Alake looks to multi-agent architectures, multimodal and multilingual embeddings, multi-step reasoning and several retrieval mechanisms beyond vector search. He predicts voice agents will be widely built but not dominant, and that memory will rise, recalling Andrew Ng opening their first meeting, in April of last year, by asking how he models memory in agents.

Strategy and the long view. For a year he calls "show me the money", Alake bases strategy on pillars and the objective truths within them: for developers, GitHub. His arena framework sets tactics to battle in the market, and his team principles are aggressive, centralized, coordinated, resourceful, efficient and data-driven. In a tangent the host says AGI no longer scares him because human and machine strengths seem complementary. Alake allows a chance of "chaos" rather than collaboration between the two intelligences, but holds that AI will not take human curiosity, and hopes it takes what we now call work.

  • A flexible document schema suits AI's constant experimentation. Alake, a staff developer advocate for AI/ML at MongoDB, argues the JSON-like document model lets the data layer evolve while requirements are unclear and be locked once in production, avoiding schema migrations; with LLMs offering JSON mode and structured output, JSON now unifies application, data and model. The host, who says MongoDB does not sponsor the episode, gives the example of storing an extra output field from a Llama model that the OpenAI API lacks.
  • One database can handle operational, lexical, vector and hybrid search. Alake says customers had bolted search engines, extensions or separate vector databases onto MongoDB, sometimes running two or three databases, so MongoDB built Atlas Search and then vector search into the managed, multi-cloud Atlas service. The host adds that a single vendor avoids version mismatches between linked systems.
  • Store an agent's tools in the database; retrieve only a few. Alake's open-source library Memorizz implements a "MongoDB as a toolbox" pattern: since OpenAI's guidance is to put only 10 to 20 tool schemas in context, store perhaps a thousand tools with embeddings of their docstrings, then fetch two or three before each LLM call. He jokes that stuffing a million-token context window on every call depends on "how deep your pocket goes".
  • The "multi" era is here, and memory is the next frontier. Calling 2025 the "multi" era, Alake expects, beyond single agents, multi-agent architectures, multimodal and multilingual embeddings, multi-step reasoning and multiple retrieval mechanisms, since "vector search is not all you need". He predicts voice agents will be widely tried but not dominant, and that memory management, as pursued by MemGPT's maker Letta and the HippoRAG paper, will become central.
  • Ground AI strategy in objective truths; test tactics in the market. Alake's "arena framework" pictures a coliseum whose pillars are segments of objective truth (for developers, GitHub and what they always do there), with tactics battling it out in the market. For teams he prescribes being aggressive, centralized, coordinated, resourceful, efficient and data-driven.
Dr. Jon KrohnHow Will Humans Provide Value in an AI-Driven World? (with Varun Godbole)
  • Extrapolate current curves a little rather than predict AGI. Godbole, recently retired from Google, says his post "From Knowledge to Wisdom" starts from observable trends: each year models get much better while inference cost for the same functionality falls by orders of magnitude, context windows grow and latency improves, as with Tesla's Roadster preceding cheaper models. He notes there is no consensus definition of AGI.
  • AI coding tools will produce "full-stack employees". Because tools such as Cursor, Lovable, Replit and Copilot make software accessible to non-engineers, Godbole expects a PM to arrive with generated mocks, a prototype and early user research before an engineer spends a second on it. He suggests roles are bundles of skills that may be unbundled and dynamically rebundled, leaving the shape of future organizations unclear.
  • Cheap reproduction could make software resemble the music industry. If an undifferentiated SaaS product can be cheaply copied, Godbole reasons through a chain of "ifs" that most offerings face near-perfect competition while a few highly differentiated winners take outsized returns. He expects the effects to be discontinuous, such as small teams simply not hiring a PM.
  • When knowledge is commoditized, wisdom becomes the differentiator. Godbole argues good ideas still come from humans, and that cultivating wisdom resembles cultivating curiosity, open-mindedness and adaptability. His aim is not more agentic AI but using AI to make himself more agentic, self-authored and pro-social, which he says also improved how he wields models, since language makes human assumptions the models do not share.
Stock TokBeat The S&P 500 by 142%...Here's How!
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Technology and FriendsMaarten Balliauw on Identity Management in NET [EPISODE 846]
  • ASP.NET Core offers three authorization models; policies scale best. Balliauw separates authentication (proving who you are, e.g. via the built-in cookie handler that sets an encrypted cookie) from authorization (what that identity may do). Role-based checks are simplest; claims-based checks add properties but bloat the cookie in complex systems; policy-based authorization lets you write custom requirements, such as a database lookup, and combine policies.
  • OpenID Connect extends OAuth for proving login to APIs. In a microservices setup the client sends the user to an authorization server, which returns a signed token the client passes to each API; he says OpenID Connect adds the token format, signing mechanisms and refresh rules on top of OAuth. Because ASP.NET Core ships the client side, it works with any compliant server, such as Duende IdentityServer or Entra ID. He recommends Microsoft's ASP.NET Core authentication docs to start, and reading the OAuth and OpenID specifications to understand the design choices.
  • IdentityServer is an SDK for building your own identity provider. Balliauw, head of customer success at Duende Software, describes its product as a way to "build your own Entra ID". His reasons to use it: reusing an existing user store, avoiding a hosted SaaS service, plugging custom logic into every step of the flow, and configuring industry profiles such as the financial-grade API's proof of possession.
  • Single-page apps should not hold tokens in the browser. He says a token in local storage can be fished out by anyone with some IT background and used against the API, and proof of possession does not help because its key would also sit in the browser. The backend-for-frontend pattern, which Duende also sells as BFF, keeps tokens on the hosting server, which proxies API calls and handles refresh, while the browser uses only a cookie — more secure and, he says, a much simpler client programming model.
  • Dynamic grants and passkeys are the changes he is watching. A grant-management spec in progress would let users add or remove consented access, such as a second bank account, without discarding existing tokens. He is "a big fan" of passkeys: a per-site key pair on a trusted device means no stored passwords, nothing useful in a breach "at least until quantum computers become a big thing", and revocation by deleting a public key.
Dr. Jon KrohnOptimizing AI Outputs: The Secret to Better Prompts (with Varun Godbole)
  • LLMs have turned much of machine learning into prompting plus evals. Godbole, a core member of Google's Gemini team until he recently left, calls LLMs an "arbitrage of ML talent": where adding intelligence to a product once meant PyTorch or JAX and data collection, it now means articulating the behavior you want in clear English and measuring it with good evals, a very different skill set.
  • The mental model in his prompting playbook outlasts its prescriptions. Godbole says the second half of the playbook he published before leaving Google, examples of good and bad prompts, reflects today's models, since prompting o1 or Gemini Flash Thinking feels different from GPT-4o or Gemini 1.5. The first half, on pre-training versus post-training, he considers more future-proof.
  • Pre-training learns every "cinematic universe"; post-training picks one. He argues that for an LLM there is no objective fact: "Bilbo Baggins is a hobbit" is true only in Tolkien's universe, and web text approximates the union of all such universes. Post-training narrows the model to an assistant-and-user universe, so post-trained models are statistical models role-playing as human raters role-playing as AI assistants.
  • Prompt as if briefing an all-knowing stranger who doesn't know you. Godbole says complaints about why a prompt is failing usually work better when pasted into the prompt, and that models respond best to extremely explicit, low-context communication. He recommends the book Nonviolent Communication, learned in couples therapy, because being explicit about the observable behavior you want works on people and models alike.
Polis PanditShould Assisted Suicide Be Legal?
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Mr. GlobalAre States Running Out Of Gas?
  • The viral claim of states running out of gas is false. He traces it to a TikTok video by a pastor, built on an old story from when Hurricane Milton hit Florida, which then spread nationally. The "gas shortage by state 2025" website people cite, with figures such as 23% of Georgia stations dry, carries June and May 2021 dates at the bottom of the page.
  • The 2021 shortages had specific causes that no longer apply. In May 2021 the Colonial Pipeline was hacked and went down; by June a post-Covid shortage of tanker truck drivers meant gas could not be delivered, made worse by having to truck what the pipeline normally carried. He says there is no state-level shortage in March 2025.
GeoHussarMarch 13, 2025. Discussion with data scientist Erica Barker.
synopsis

Data scientist Erica Barker ends up holding that data is only as good as the people checking it and the minds receiving it: quantitative easing inflated asset prices without helping the real economy, closed regimes and gutted statistical staff make numbers unreliable, and audiences are swayed by repetition and confident delivery more than evidence. Her prescription is to stop merely consuming information and actively reflect on it.

Credentials. Asked for her background, Barker describes programming as a child in the 1990s, joining the Navy after 9/11 as a mass communication specialist, a business master's, teaching journalism, work for the NFL and Condé Nast, then private equity. Priced out of a $24,000-a-year Bloomberg terminal during the pandemic, she rebuilt analysis in Python, starting with TradingView indicators. She stresses she is not an economist.

Why people don't think for themselves. The host blames anxiety in a society that has never had it better; Barker blames repetition and news built around outliers. The host recounts their own data-science projects: a word-frequency comparison finding more mercy language in the Quran than the Bible, and models suggesting paid family leave helps the economy.

Money velocity and QE. Barker corrects an error in her own published index, which double-counted inflation in real median household income, but keeps velocity of money as a worrying metric. The host argues stimulus parked with the top 1% rather than circulating, and CEO pay has grown 70–80 times faster than middle incomes. Barker recommends "The Lords of Easy Money", describing QE as a cure that became a dependency, with stocks decoupling from the real economy around its rise.

Oligarchs and pragmatism. Barker frames the election as corporatists against oligarchs and pragmatism against idealism, recommending Alex Karp's "The Technological Republic" and warning that running government like a move-fast startup can kill people. The host calls the current administration idealists building castles in the sky.

Bad data. A viewer asks how social media distorts opinion; Barker answers that storytelling and repetition fix beliefs beyond the reach of evidence. Asked about countries that fudge data, she recounts losing money on Luckin Coffee; the host cites China's suspended youth-unemployment series. Barker warns that replacing federal data staff with AI removes the human checks that catch cascading errors, and describes her three-model debate script.

Being trans in Florida. Asked whether data work makes one callous, Barker says data is never the whole picture. The host argues the GOP used trans people as a wedge after 2020; Barker, born in Florida in 1982 and transitioning in 2009, describes the state turning hostile, being followed in a Home Depot, and losing a fellow Iraq veteran to suicide, asking to be judged by actions.

Faith over facts. Both lament lost decorum, citing the Reid–McConnell friendship. The host says Trump support now rests on faith that tariffs and Hegseth will work out; Barker explains whataboutism. On debates, she cites Kennedy–Nixon and Fox's loud anchors as proof that limbic responses favor the louder voice, and closes comparing passive scrolling to drinking protein shakes without ever exercising.

  • Quantitative easing split the stock market from the real economy. Erica Barker, a Navy veteran turned data scientist, cites "The Lords of Easy Money": QE rescued the economy, then reliance on it deepened under Bernanke despite one dissenter, until the S&P 500 and real economy stopped moving together. The host adds banks sat on the money through 2008–2010, so the velocity of money fell instead of rising.
  • Chinese official data cannot be trusted for decisions. Barker says she bought Luckin Coffee near $12 on stellar book value and watched it fall below 50 cents overnight once US analysts exposed the CFO's fabrications. The host says China stopped publishing youth unemployment after it passed 20%, then resumed in June 2024 with a new method showing a drop.
  • Replacing federal statisticians with AI risks compounding errors. Barker warns that firing the staff who compile economic metrics leaves nobody to catch mistakes that cascade, while institutions steer trillions by those numbers. She checks LLM hallucinations with a script that makes ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini debate to consensus, and notes people running open-source models locally from Hugging Face.
  • Delivery, not data, wins political arguments. Barker argues repetition by good storytellers hardens exaggerations into "facts", and politicians' theatrics become the next generation's sincere beliefs. She cites Kennedy–Nixon, where TV viewers and radio listeners picked different winners, and Fox's loud Hannity beside the quieter Colmes; the host says Trump wins debates with the sound off.
  • Support for Trump now rests on faith, not evidence, the host argues. Supporters expect blanket tariffs and Hegseth to work out despite no precedent for quick reshoring. The host claims the GOP made trans people a post-2020 wedge to attack disability protections covering about 40 million; Barker, a trans combat veteran, describes harassment in Florida and "DEI trash" replies to her Verizon Super Bowl spot.
Dr. Jon KrohnML is Revolutionizing Developer Productivity (with Varun Godbole)
  • Google bet on ML code completion before ChatGPT made it obvious. The host points to a July 2022 Google Research post, "ML-Enhanced Code Completion Improves Developer Productivity", noting that at the time such tools might have seemed more trouble than their errors were worth. Godbole, who moved from medical imaging to this work, says early results were promising and that steadily improving hardware and model size made engineering productivity a natural use case for sequence-to-sequence models.
Technology and FriendsTrinh Tran on Windows Accessibility Tools [EPISODE 845]
  • Accessibility matters to everyone because disability is often temporary or situational. Tran, a Microsoft partner technology strategist and 12-year stroke survivor with low and double vision, cites about 1.6 billion disabled people, roughly one in four adults, and distinguishes permanent (blindness), temporary (an eye infection) and situational (sun glare) disability. He says Microsoft built its tools in at the design phase, and that he first assumed he could not do his job until he found them.
  • Built-in speech tools work both ways and help anyone multitask. Windows Dictation (Windows+H) turns speech into text, which he uses because left-side weakness makes him a slow typist; Narrator reads text aloud for his low vision. Read Aloud, in Microsoft 365 apps and Edge, reads email or web pages and, he says, in the sender's accent — an Australian trainer's email came in an Australian voice.
  • Small display settings make the screen trackable. He enlarges the mouse pointer (to size 4; Giard uses 7 to find it across multiple monitors), the text size, or overall display scaling (he runs 175% on a 27-inch screen), and mentions high contrast, a blinking cursor and Magnifier for zooming into part of the screen.
  • Microsoft also makes adaptable hardware. He points to the Microsoft Accessible Mouse, which takes add-on parts to fit the user's hand, and the Xbox Adaptive Controller, which lets people who could not use a standard controller play.
  • Dictating to Copilot lets you prompt AI like talking to a person. He dictated a long, unproofread prompt for a three-day Seattle and Microsoft-campus itinerary; he says Copilot, which he says runs GPT-4o, interpreted it despite his atypical speech, then revised the plan when he replied conversationally. To find accessibility tools, he suggests asking Copilot or searching "Windows accessibility".
Dr. Jon Krohn870: OpenAI’s “Deep Research”: Get Days of Human Work Done in Minutes — with Jon Krohn
  • OpenAI's Deep Research does hours or days of literature review in minutes. The host, who notes OpenAI does not sponsor him, explains that it breaks a query into sub-tasks, searches the web for each, and iteratively synthesizes a cited report, pivoting as it learns. OpenAI trained it with end-to-end reinforcement learning on browsing and reasoning tasks, and it can read uploaded files, plot with Python, embed images and cite specific passages.
  • Deep Research jumped far ahead on Humanity's Last Exam. On the 3,000-question benchmark spanning over 100 subjects, the host's table at recording shows GPT-4o at 3%, Grok 2 and Claude 3.5 Sonnet around 4%, Gemini Thinking about 6%, o1 and DeepSeek R1 around 9%, o3-mini (high) about 13%, and Deep Research at 27%. He predicts that, as with past coding and math benchmarks, the exam won't take long to be conquered once AI gains traction.
  • In the host's use, it asked sharp questions and saved hours. Drafting the syllabus, title and abstract for his four-hour agentic AI workshop at ODSC East, he supplied partial modules and past abstracts; it asked about audience level, hands-on coding and tone, then spent three minutes across eight sources, including his own website, to produce a draft he only lightly edited.
  • Google's and Perplexity's versions trade depth for other strengths, the host judges. He says Google's Gemini-based tool shows a user-guided research plan first and is reliable but less nuanced, while Perplexity's is fast and free but shallower; for mission-critical analysis he gives OpenAI's the edge despite its cost.
  • The catches are cost and occasional overconfidence. The host pays $200 a month for Pro, which includes 100 Deep Research queries a month, and warns it can hallucinate or present rumor as fact, though he has caught neither and says OpenAI reports markedly lower hallucination rates. He forecasts efficiencies such as smaller models like o3-mini will bring more queries to all paid users and eventually free access.
Stock TokCommodity To Run 124%
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Scott HanselmanSaving lives with light with Dr. Mary Lou Jepsen - ACM ByteCast
synopsis

Mary Lou Jepsen, CEO and founder of Openwater, argues that open-source, mass-manufactured devices using light and ultrasound can diagnose and treat many diseases at the cost of a smartphone. In her view, the regulatory path for novel therapies makes most innovation either unaffordable or never shipped. The episode was made in association with the ACM ByteCast.

The cost barrier. Jepsen says she holds patents mainly to indemnify contract manufacturers. Responding to Hanselman's account of decades of promised non-invasive diabetes care, she cites an average of $658 million and 13 years to approve a novel therapy. Those approvals rest on builds of about 10 units, which rule out Moore's law. A rare-disease drug then comes out at around $1 million per patient. She left Facebook, she says, because nobody was pursuing a general platform that could leapfrog drugs.

The platform. Openwater builds custom lasers, ultrasound transducers and chips. It is configured in software, on the model of Android, with approvals as the apps. It moved from equipment-filled rooms to hospital carts during the pandemic, and now to a $10,000 system under AGPL and Creative Commons licences. She argues this beats the single-rare-disease model: $54 million raised last year, $100 million in total, a few thousand units this year, profitability, and an open-source commitment enforced by an investor's veto.

Blood flow and stroke. Pulsed coherent light recorded as holograms on phone camera chips reads blood flow to 0.1% in phantom tissue. Jepsen proposes this as a forehead test to route large-vessel-occlusion stroke patients to the 5% of hospitals that can remove the clot.

Focused ultrasound. Low-intensity, diagnostic-level ultrasound tuned to resonant frequencies put 30 mice with glioblastoma into remission without harming healthy cells. It sent almost half of severely depressed patients into remission, and breaks up microclots in preclinical work. Phased 8-by-8 arrays, registered to the head with an Android phone, steer the focus.

Access and data. Hanselman and Jepsen both describe American healthcare tied to employment and medical bankruptcy. She wants safety data shared openly and hardware placed in hacker spaces, within ethics-review rules, and Hanselman offers Microsoft Reactors.

  • Regulatory economics, not science, keep novel devices out of medicine. Jepsen cites a paper averaging $658 million and 13 years to approve something novel and therapeutic, built on "quality builds" of about 10 units that rule out Moore's law and contract manufacturing. She says a million papers in 20 years on infrared, ultrasound or electromagnetic treatments have produced a rounding error to zero in the healthcare system. A single rare disease such as glioblastoma, about 5,000 US patients a year, ends up as a treatment costing around $1 million after roughly $1 billion spent.
  • Openwater sells an open-source, general-purpose device as its business model. Jepsen likens it to Android, where the "apps" are regulatory approvals her customers obtain. She says the system costs $10,000 now, against $1 million earlier, and could reach the cost of a smartphone at volume. It is released under AGPL and Creative Commons 4.0 ShareAlike; the company has raised $54 million last year and $100 million in total, and expects to ship a few thousand units this year and go profitable. A $50 million non-dilutive check from Ethereum's founder came with a veto over ever closing the source.
  • Smartphone camera chips and a pulsed laser can spot strokes. Jepsen says recording holograms with the micron-sized pixels of phone cameras gives blood-flow readings in phantom tissue accurate to 0.1%, which she calls 20 times better than CT, MRI or Doppler. She describes it as an "ECG for your forehead" to route large-vessel-occlusion stroke patients, a type she says kills 6.5 million a year, to the 5% of hospitals that can treat it. Treated within two hours, she says, there is a 90% chance of no neural deficit; the laser starts production next quarter.
  • Low-intensity ultrasound tuned to cancer's resonant frequency kills it selectively. Jepsen reports sweeping frequencies on 16 glioblastoma lines grown as organoids, then moving 30 mice into remission with no damaged healthy cells found at autopsy. She says the treatment releases proteins that "vaccinate" the body against its own cancer. In a severe-depression study almost half the patients went into remission on 10-minute doses over three weeks, and 150 kHz pulses at a 10% duty cycle break microclots below five microns in preclinical work. None of it is FDA-approved yet.
  • Open safety data and hacker access are the next bottleneck. Jepsen wants all safety and outcome data shared with regulators, doctors and patients. She notes that ultrasound use on people is regulated as Class 2, that experiments on anything with a backbone need ethics review boards, and that the open-source community needs hardware and lab space. Hanselman, whose team runs Microsoft's open source programs office, offers Microsoft Reactor spaces.
Mr. GlobalWhy Is Everyone Lying About Gas Prices?
  • Claims of record-cheap gas and oil are false. Answering a Trump clip saying oil is down to $65 a barrel, he says it is not there yet, though it probably will be soon at this rate; the national average is $3.08 a gallon, against $2.98 in December, so gas is not at a four-year low.
  • The lies cover for an economy with no good news. He argues supporters push gas and egg prices because that is where ordinary people feel the economy, while it tanks and people lose jobs, producing a "bizarro world" where collapse is celebrated.
  • Trump can only deliver cheap gas through a glut or collapse. He has long said the two routes are OPEC flooding the market or the economy collapsing; gas was already trending down for a couple of years, and 10 cents a gallon saved means nothing against $300,000 wiped from a retirement fund. He thinks a recession looks likely.