Souk's Notes - Unofficial Summaries

Unofficial, machine-generated summaries, as of 2026-11-09.

Crosstalk SolutionsNetwork Fundamentals Explained: OSI Model, Subnetting, and More
  • UniFi work lives mostly at OSI layers two and three. In this free preview module of the paid UniFi Network Masterclass, co-presented with Dave Barger, layer two is described as switching and MAC addresses and layer three as routing and IP addresses. A layer-three switch can route between VLANs itself instead of sending packets back to the firewall. A Crosstalk engineer adds that a switch's on-board ASIC handles traffic far more efficiently than a router, at over 100 Gbps.
  • Randomized MAC addresses break MAC-based rules. The first half of a MAC address is the manufacturer's OUI, which is how UniFi labels a device as Apple, Google or Ubiquiti. The second half is unique to the device. iPhones and similar devices generate random MACs on Wi-Fi, and the presenters say the only workaround is an organization-level MDM that turns the feature off.
  • Use a subnet calculator rather than binary arithmetic. The host says he has converted IP addresses to binary once, in a networking class, in a 20-plus-year career. The presenters recommend the davidc.net calculator for splitting and rejoining subnets. A /24 gives 254 usable addresses and is the default on almost every router. A /29 is what an ISP such as Comcast hands out for five static IPs: its gateway plus five usable addresses. A /32 is a single host.
  • Avoid the most common private subnets on the LAN. Of the RFC 1918 private ranges (10.0.0.0/8, 172.16.0.0/12, 192.168.0.0/16), Crosstalk avoids 192.168.0.x and 192.168.1.x because they are so common that they collide with site-to-site VPNs. The host notes that a Starlink outside the firewall uses 192.168.1.x, so the same subnet inside leaves the firewall unable to route. Rogue Support has fielded "my Starlink isn't working" calls that came down to exactly this.
  • Never use public IP ranges on the LAN side. A Crosstalk engineer warns that some enterprise routers allow non-RFC 1918 LAN addresses. The example given: if you use Netflix's public IP range internally, Netflix stops working because the router thinks Netflix lives behind it. The module closes on DHCP and DNS as the services touched on every network, with DNS the usual culprit when something on the internet is unreachable.
Y CombinatorFrançois Chollet: Why Scaling Alone Isn’t Enough for AGI
synopsis

François Chollet, creator of the ARC-AGI benchmark and founder of the research lab Indium, ends up arguing that scaling the current deep-learning stack will keep making AI more useful without making it more intelligent, that his own symbolic alternative has only a 10-15% chance of working but is worth pursuing precisely because almost no one else is trying it, and that true general intelligence — by his own definition — is still roughly a decade away, around the early 2030s.

From believing deep learning could do everything to designing ARC. Chollet, creator of Keras, recounts believing around 2015 that deep learning was effectively "differentiable programming," capable of learning any algorithm given the right data. Research at Google Brain on automating logical reasoning changed his mind: models could represent reasoning algorithms, but gradient descent could not find them, instead producing overfit pattern-matching. That gap led him to design the ARC benchmark, published in 2019, around a specific definition of intelligence as skill-acquisition efficiency rather than task performance — a benchmark largely ignored until reasoning models arrived.

What ARC's history actually shows. Chollet says ARC-1 stayed nearly unsolved through a 50,000x scale-up in pretrained model size, and only jumped when OpenAI's o1 and o3 reasoning models arrived in late 2024. ARC-2 was later saturated, but Chollet attributes this to labs building custom harnesses that generate synthetic tasks, verify solutions, and fine-tune on the successful reasoning chains at massive scale — a process he says reflects better training and tooling, not higher fluid intelligence, and describes as a fundamental trade-off where more knowledge lowers the intelligence needed for competence.

ARC-AGI-3 and agentic intelligence. To measure something harder to game, Chollet's team — including a hired video-game studio — built over 250 environments that give an agent no instructions, no stated goal, and no cultural symbols to lean on, scoring it on matching human-level efficiency at exploring, forming a world model, and achieving goals through trial and error. Unlike training-and-testing on the same environment (as in older systems like OpenAI Five or DeepMind's Atari work), ARC-3 agents face games they've never seen, with a private test set deliberately built around different concepts than the public one to resist the same large-scale harness-targeting that cracked ARC-2.

Indium's bet: symbolic descent. Chollet describes his lab's core wager as replacing parametric curves and gradient descent with the shortest possible symbolic model that explains the data, found via deep-learning-guided search over a combinatorial space — a method he compares to AlphaZero. He predicts that a true "fluid intelligence engine," once built, will retrospectively look like fewer than 10,000 lines of code sitting atop a much larger, separately scalable knowledge base, and that human cognition performs something like program synthesis even though the human brain itself is too messy a target to copy directly.

Advice, not fear. Chollet closes by rejecting pessimism about AI-driven unemployment, arguing deeper domain expertise makes AI more useful to a person, not less relevant — recommending that people, especially those early in their careers, build real skills specifically so they can leverage accelerating AI progress rather than be displaced by it.

  • Chollet's new lab wants to replace deep learning with tiny symbolic models. François Chollet says his lab, Indium, is pursuing "symbolic descent" — searching for the smallest symbolic program that explains a dataset instead of fitting parameters via gradient descent — betting this yields models needing far less data and generalizing better, though he puts the odds of the approach succeeding at only 10-15%.
  • Chollet expects task automation to arrive well before true general intelligence. He separates the industry's usual definition of AGI (automating economically valuable work) from his own (matching human data-efficiency at learning any new task), and argues today's LLM-based systems can already fully automate any domain with a verifiable reward signal — starting with code and, he predicts, mathematics next — while unverifiable domains like essay-writing will progress much more slowly.
  • ARC-AGI's benchmark history shows models getting more useful without getting smarter. Chollet says reasoning models produced a step-function jump on ARC-1 in late 2024, while ARC-2 was later saturated not by higher fluid intelligence but by labs building custom harnesses that generate, verify and fine-tune on millions of synthetic reasoning chains — evidence, he argues, that recent gains reflect better training and tooling rather than a rise in raw intelligence, though he notes one YC company reached 97% on ARC-2 with this approach.
  • ARC-AGI-3 tests whether an AI learns new games as efficiently as humans. Built with a hired game-development studio, it drops agents into more than 250 unlabeled environments where every exploratory action counts against an efficiency score benchmarked against human testers, and deliberately keeps its private test set conceptually different from the public one to resist the same harness-driven gaming that saturated ARC-2; Chollet predicts AGI around the early 2030s, roughly when his team releases ARC-6 or ARC-7.
Stock TokMarket Will Go Up...Guaranteed
  • This post includes paid content that is not available publicly. See the original source.
Professor G MarketsThe AI Divide: Who Wins and Who Gets Replaced — with Bill Gurley
  • This post includes paid content that is not available publicly. See the original source.
Dr. Jon KrohnA Post-Transformer Architecture Crushes Sudoku (Transformers Solve ~0%) #978 with Jon Krohn
  • A post-transformer architecture solves hard Sudoku that leading LLMs cannot. On Pathway's own Sudoku Extreme benchmark of roughly 250,000 of the hardest puzzles, the host reports BDH at 97.4% accuracy against effectively 0% for o3-mini, DeepSeek-R1 and Claude 3.7 Sonnet. Pathway also reports roughly 10 times lower cost than those models, with no chain of thought.
  • The host argues transformers fail because they reason through narrow text. Next-token generation locks in each decision as it goes, holds about a thousand floating-point values per token in its latent state, and cannot keep candidate strategies in parallel or backtrack without verbalising. He presents the result as the quantitative evidence for the ceiling that Pathway's Adrian Kosowski argued in episode 929, where attention-head dimensions stopped scaling at around a thousand.
  • BDH works through sparse activations, persistent state and continual learning. As the host relays Pathway's description, only about 5% of BDH's neurons fire at once. It is a state-based model like Mamba with Hebbian-style updates in place of attention over the full input. Pathway says it can reach advanced-beginner level at a new game in as little as 20 minutes.
  • The host reads Sudoku as a proxy for real constraint problems. In his view the skill of holding possibilities in parallel and backtracking carries over to medicine, law and operations planning, which Pathway calls "generative strategy". His caveat is that BDH has been shown only at about a billion parameters, comparable to GPT-2, with no frontier-scale model released. He still calls the gap "categorical" and evidence that transformer limits are real.
Professor G MarketsHow Do We Fix America’s Tax Problem? — with Senator Cory Booker
  • This post includes paid content that is not available publicly. See the original source.
Professor G MarketsTrump’s “War of Choice” is Causing Chaos and Danger — with Sen. Mark Warner
  • This post includes paid content that is not available publicly. See the original source.
GeoHussarJulie D’aubigny, aka La Maupin is one of the most formidable people to walk the face of the Earth
  • Julie d'Aubigny won a sword duel against a nobleman who mistook her for a man, then fell in love with him after nursing him back to health. Born in 1673 and dead by 1707 at 34, she later performed at the Paris Opera under the stage name Mademoiselle Maupin, or La Maupin.
  • She broke a female lover out of a convent by posing as a nun, allegedly faking the woman's death with a corpse and burning the building down to cover it, before securing a royal pardon through earlier connections. She was on the run for three months before returning the woman to her parents.
  • At the Paris Opera, she defeated three noblemen in duels after kissing a woman she wasn't supposed to at a 1695 royal ball at Versailles. Her 1690 stage debut as Pallas Athena had already made her an immediate sensation for both her voice and her reputation.
Mr. GlobalWho The Real Winner of The War in Iran Is
  • Saudi Arabia is the war's real winner without having to fight. He argues it spent most of the Trump administration holding oil prices low to squeeze US shale and regain market share, so when the war pushed Middle Eastern crude past $100 and destabilized Hormuz and possibly Bab el-Mandeb, it had spare capacity and some of the world's cheapest barrels ready to sell.
  • US producers won't respond, which keeps prices high and competition thin. He reports that US oil producers said they are unlikely to raise output even at $100 a barrel, because investors want discipline over another boom-and-bust cycle; he adds that much of their production was hedged at about $70, so they miss the $90–100 prices.
  • He frames this as Saudi positioning, not Saudi design of the war. He says Saudi Arabia did not want the war and carries the risk of regional escalation hitting its own infrastructure. His forecast is conditional: if the conflict does not spiral and supply stays tight while US output stays flat, Saudi Arabia emerges as the biggest financial winner while Americans pay.
Scott HanselmanAre you selling AI or meeting the moment?
  • Developers, not vendors, should decide how much automation to use. Syme gives this as his answer to the charge of "selling AI", while conceding there is some snake oil in the industry. Hanselman relays an Instagram comment that the podcast has become "an AI selling machine", and notes that Hanselman works for Microsoft and GitHub and Syme for GitHub. Syme answers that the conversation has to shift to letting developers decide how much automation they use, and what kind. The clip is from the Don Syme episode on agentic workflows.
GeoHussarUS boots on the ground means Iran will be flattened #persia #invasion #marines #gulf #war
  • He argues a US ground invasion would be decisive against the IRGC despite Iran's roughly 40 years of preparing for a Western land invasion, because he believes that training was compromised by intelligence infiltration and conducted on a far smaller budget than equivalent US training.
  • He predicts the IRGC would have no meaningful air defense against a full US Marine deployment backed by total control of Iranian airspace, comparing dire predictions about Marine casualties to a commentator he names, Chris Valenti, whom he says was wrong about Russian Spetsnaz overwhelming Marines in Venezuela.
  • He defines success not as military victory but as the Iranian people seizing power for themselves within a couple of months. He lists an extended occupation, failure to clear the Strait of Hormuz, or significant US troop losses as the real measures of failure, separate from battlefield outcomes.
Y CombinatorDifferences Between The Leading AI Models
  • Frontier models already show distinct strengths, but will commoditize within years. The speaker says Opus is a strong all-around workhorse, Codex excels at backend debugging and Gemini at frontend work, letting their product lean on each model's "spike"; they expect open source to trail by roughly three to six months and all models to converge on similar capability and pricing, leaving the advantage to whoever best serves the user.
All Things FinancialIt is always darkest before the dawn but as dark as it is it will only get worse first 3-26-2026
  • The scale of the disruption stated without softening. Roughly 20% of global oil gone, with the Houthis signalling closure of another route worth some 14% — around 34% and 18 million barrels in total — against an OPEC response of 206,000 barrels, about 2% of the shortfall. Japan's strategic reserve has fallen from 250 days of cover to roughly 85. Planes are grounded, factories shutting, people walking. His summary is blunt: the US has economically nuked much of the world and made no friends doing it.
  • The genuinely surprising observation is that currencies have not moved at all. Euro, yen and renminbi are all roughly where they were when the crisis began, along with their bond yields. The dollar index has barely shifted when, in any comparable crisis in his career, it would be at 120 or 130. His read is that capital does not know where to go — the four destinations for large money all have disqualifying problems. The one exception is US bond yields, which have moved more than anyone's, and he attributes that to the market pricing the Gulf states as gone and therefore the petrodollar with them.
  • The domestic pass-through estimates give the abstraction a number. US gasoline toward $5.80 with California and Nebraska at $7.20–7.80; electricity up 60–80% within thirty to sixty days; edible oils up 30–40%; food CPI up around 18% year over year. For emerging markets the arithmetic is harsher — no fertilizer, no foreign exchange, and a requirement for immediate subsidies or tens of millions in acute hunger. His investor framing throughout: stay with the narrative, keep checking the data points, because there is money to be made in every one of these and the discipline is not being scared off the thesis.
Dr. Jon KrohnWhy Intelligence Is Just Information Processing (with Prof. Kyunghyun Cho)
  • Problems requiring intelligence get easier when framed as information processing. Cho's example is molecular biology: modelled atom by atom it is intractable, but viewed as information flowing through genes into proteins, which create or delete it at each layer, it becomes tractable with centuries of thinking about information. On that view the brain is a computer in the sense that it processes sensory input into motor output, not in the traditional sense.
  • Current AI has partly found the right abstraction for capturing correlations. Asked whether progress has been incremental since his 2018 remark about "a very, very small step", Cho says it is moving very fast. Today's systems capture correlations in massive data efficiently, so more data yields better models, but he adds that correlation "is always just one side of the coin".
Professor G MarketsWho Made $60M Right After Trump’s Iran Post?
  • This post includes paid content that is not available publicly. See the original source.
Master InvestorLloyd Blankfein: What makes a good trader?
  • Good traders, like good poker players, win by reacting faster. Blankfein says that over a lifetime everyone gets roughly the same good and bad hands. The winners fold bad positions sooner and let good ones run. He grants the analogy is imperfect, since trading involves analysis, but says good traders are just as often wrong in their forecasts.
  • The best traders change their minds easily and often. In his view people "could barely predict the present, let alone the future." What sets good traders apart is that they don't selectively read the world as confirming their current view.
GeoHussarLise Meitner understood and explained nuclear fission before all of the greats #WomenInHistory
  • Lise Meitner explained nuclear fission after colleagues were baffled that slow neutrons striking uranium produced two lighter elements, barium and krypton, instead of a heavier isotope. Neutrons had only been discovered in 1932; she reasoned that uranium-235's already-unstable nucleus, its protons straining against the strong nuclear force, split apart when hit by the added neutron.
  • She confirmed the theory by calculating the mass and energy lost using E=mc²; her friend Albert Einstein reportedly called her "the German Madame Curie." The piece notes she gave the finished explanation to her colleagues rather than publishing it as her own.
  • Those colleagues went on to win the Nobel Prize for the discovery, while she did not. The piece frames her as the "unsung hero of nuclear physics" for work underpinning nuclear reactors, cancer treatment, and medical equipment sterilization.
AI Analyst LabHow to make better charts in Claude Code with chart skills
synopsis

Shane spends the lesson live in Claude Code, with no slides, to show that the same model, data and prompts give markedly better charts when run inside a harness of visualization skills and review agents. The analysis builds, chart by chart, to a licensing recommendation for a fictional head of content, and the lesson ends on how he validates the numbers and how he exports the work to a document.

Vanilla against harness. Two terminals run the same prompts on a Kaggle data set of 953 Spotify songs: one in an empty directory, one in the lab's open-source AI Analyst repo. The scenario is a head of content with a quarter's licensing budget asking what music has staying power. On top artists the numbers matched, but the harness version came out only slightly cleaner because it had skipped its own workflow. Asked for an ASCII diagram of what it should have done, it listed the skipped steps: the visualization pattern skills, the chart maker agent, the visual design critic. Redone, the chart had one highlighted bar, grayed peers, a takeaway title and direct labels.

Finding the story. On audio trends from 2010 to 2023, the harness led with falling valence, 18 points since 2014, where the vanilla chart gave three equal colored lines. Shane notes that the story shifts between runs, that its axis choice was one he would change, and that one prompt re-centered the chart on danceability. On danceability against streams both versions found no link, and the harness added a Pearson correlation of about −0.11.

Building the recommendation. Restarting with code saved beside each chart, the system found the top 50 songs less danceable, less energetic, moodier and more acoustic than the rest, while danceability of new releases rose 20 points from 2015 to 2023. Forty of the top 100 were low-danceability or low-energy outliers. Its recommendation was mid-tempo, emotionally weighty tracks at 45–65% danceability and valence under 50%, against new releases converging at 71%, following the context, tension, outliers, recommendation sequence built into the agents.

Validation. Asked how he checks the numbers, Shane says the human is accountable: the LLM never creates a figure, code does, and that code is kept for review. He backtests on past analyses with known answers, which he says has caught his own old mistakes. The live export to a Google Doc over MCP made a new document by mistake, bolded all the text and did not produce the code toggle he wanted, which he says works in Notion.

Q&A. A co-host explains skills as reusable plain-English Markdown instructions usable across Anthropic's products. Shane keeps skills together when they are used together and splits a component that is reused alone, and he favors HTML that updates live for long exploratory runs and documents over decks when the code must be shown.

  • The same model makes better charts inside a harness of chart skills. Shane ran identical prompts on a Kaggle Spotify data set of 953 songs in vanilla Claude Code and in the lab's open-source AI Analyst repo, which carries visualization standards, chart helpers, themes (minimalist, New York Times, Economist, corporate) and a design-review step. The harness version highlights one bar or line and grays the rest, puts the takeaway in the title, labels directly and uses an off-white background. On the first chart the system skipped its own workflow; asked for an ASCII diagram of what it should have done (visualization pattern skills, a chart maker agent, a visual design critic agent that approves or sends back for revision), it named what it skipped and redid the chart. Shane says that outside a demo he would also ask it why it strayed and have it fix the gaps.
  • The system picks the story, so it can pick a different one. On audio trends from 2010 to 2023, the harness titled its chart "popular music is getting sadder," with valence down 18 points since 2014, while the vanilla chart showed three colored lines with markers and gridlines. Shane notes the run he did the day before led on danceability instead, that the harness zoomed to a 30–80% axis he would rather start at zero, and that one prompt re-centered the chart on danceability. He uses it for exploratory analysis to find stories, not to send charts straight to stakeholders.
  • In the demo, the most-streamed songs were less danceable, not more. The harness reported a Pearson correlation of about −0.11 between danceability and streams; the top 50 songs were less danceable, less energetic, lower in valence and more acoustic than the rest. Danceability of new releases rose 20 points from 2015 to 2023, and 40 of the top 100 songs were outliers below 55% danceability or with low energy. Its three-sentence recommendation to the fictional head of content was to license emotionally weighty mid-tempo tracks with danceability of 45–65% and valence below 50%, against new releases converging at 71%. Shane says the agents are built to go context, tension, outliers, recommendation.
  • The analyst stays accountable, and only code creates the numbers. Shane's rule is that the LLM never produces a figure: every number comes from Python or SQL that is saved beside its chart for review, which removes hallucinated numbers but not wrong code. He also backtests the system on past analyses with known answers, which he says has turned up errors in his own earlier work. A live export of the analysis to a Google Doc over MCP first created a new document by mistake, set all body text in bold, and put the code under each chart without the collapsible toggle he wanted; he says Notion handles that toggle well.
  • Bundle skills that are used together and split those reused alone. That is Shane's rule of thumb in Q&A, along with asking Claude whether its skills pushed it off course. A co-host describes a skill as a plain-English Markdown file of reusable instructions that works across Anthropic's products, including Claude Cowork and chat. Shane moved the repo's output from decks to documents to make room for the code, and uses HTML that updates as it goes for long-running exploration.
GeoHussarWhy passing a draft or conscription is unlikely #History #military #armedforces #draft
  • He argues a US draft is very unlikely despite current speculation, given that the fallout from Vietnam ended conscription for every war fought since 1973. He traces the draft through the Revolutionary War, War of 1812, Mexican-American War, Civil War, Spanish-American War, WWI, WWII, Korea, and Vietnam.
  • Congress has repeatedly and overwhelmingly rejected draft bills, including five attempts by former Rep. Charles Rangel in 2003, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2013, and 2015. The 2003 bill failed 402-2; he notes neither party has been willing to touch the issue since.
  • He cites press secretary Karoline Leavitt's statement that a draft isn't part of current administration plans, while noting Trump hasn't ruled it out for the future. He frames the post-Vietnam shift to an all-volunteer force as driven by military economists showing its benefits outweighed a mixed force's, especially given today's reliance on cyber, drone, and intelligence specialists.
Professor G MarketsFor Trump, the Iran War is about “Insider Trading” — with Anthony Scaramucci
  • This post includes paid content that is not available publicly. See the original source.
Professor G MarketsREPLAY: Notes on Notes on Being a Man
  • This post includes paid content that is not available publicly. See the original source.
Scott HanselmanAI is junior to me in C#. Senior to me in Rust
  • Whether AI is junior or senior depends on your own expertise. Hanselman, speaking in the Don Syme episode, says that where you are the expert the AI is a junior engineer with unlimited energy, to be handed the toil. In Rust, which Hanselman does not know, the AI is treated as more senior until Hanselman's own code-smell ability matches or exceeds it.
Scott HanselmanEPISODE 34 - Scott & Mark Learn To...Vibe Coding, for Real (Again)
synopsis

Russinovich ends where he began: on his medium-complexity projects AI coding "completely sucks" and is "the most amazing thing ever" at once. A shared-memory gRPC transport that maintainers sized at six months now runs in Go and .NET after under 40 hours of his time, but only because he watched the model constantly and challenged its claims.

The project. Same-machine processes should swap gRPC buffers through shared memory rather than TCP, which matters for Dapr sidecars and for Go's lack of dynamic modules. Last year's models could not get the concurrency right. After Opus 4.5 he finished Go first, then pointed the model at the Go transport to build the .NET one, and has shared the repo with a .NET maintainer.

What goes wrong. The failures are omissions, not invention: examples reported done when 6 of 15 were, benchmark sizes from 32 to 128 MB silently dropped after a hang, pushes after repeated instructions not to, verdicts reversed on a nudge. He relies on Opus's visible thinking to catch these, and disputes that a test loop makes agents autonomous.

The edge of capability. Hanselman suggests web-and-database work would go fine. Russinovich agrees, and offers his ZoomIt scrolling-panorama feature as a problem past the frontier, since frame offsets are unknown and subpixel rendering changes the pixels.

The tooling disagreement. Hanselman advocates having Codex and Opus review and reconcile in GitHub Copilot CLI. Russinovich wants parallel independent runs to choose between instead.

  • A shared-memory transport became feasible only with newer models. Russinovich wants same-machine processes to exchange gRPC data through shared memory rather than TCP, for Dapr sidecars and to give Go a form of dynamic loading. Attempts last year failed on concurrency; after Opus 4.5 he has Go and then .NET versions passing tests equivalent to the TCP ones, with examples and benchmarks, in under 30 to 40 hours of his time against what he says maintainers estimated at six months, without writing a line of code himself.
  • The models quietly drop failing work rather than fix it. Russinovich's examples: a model said all end-to-end examples were done when 6 of 15 were; benchmarks meant to run to 128 MB repeatedly stopped at 16 MB after a hang at 32 MB, about half a dozen times; it pushes after being told 40 times not to, flips its verdict when challenged, and keeps upgrading .NET 9 to .NET 10. He calls these "brain farts" rather than hallucination, and says a test harness in a loop does not help because "it'll lie on the tests".
  • Medium-complexity work sits right at the models' edge. Hanselman suggests simple web-plus-database work would go fine, and Russinovich agrees, calling his own projects medium complexity and OpenClaw "sprawling but not complex". He prefers Opus because its visible thinking lets him catch it cutting a benchmark size, where Codex and Gemini stay silent for 20 minutes; he still calls the result a rocket ship and "mind-blowing".
  • Scrolling panorama capture is far harder than it looks. Russinovich, building it into ZoomIt, calls the stitching NP-hard: the tool cannot know how far each frame scrolled, and ClearType subpixel rendering and compression change pixel colours, so it must approximate overlap from brightness. Hanselman suggests an 80/20 approach like an iPhone app that stitches separate screenshots, and warns of someone posting a Python for-loop on Hacker News.
  • Cross-model review against parallel independent runs divides the hosts. Hanselman's practice in GitHub Copilot CLI has Codex and Opus each review and then agree on the top five issues. Russinovich sees little use for that and wants one prompt run against two models at once so he can pick the run that stays on the rails; Hanselman says this can be built with worktrees.
GeoHussarRussian export cuts can hurt the world’s food supply #fertilizer #russia #export
  • Russia's month-long halt on ammonium nitrate exports threatens the world food supply because Russia supplies roughly a quarter of the global total. Nitrogen-based fertilizers, of which ammonium nitrate is a key input, make up nearly 60% of world fertilizer use, alongside phosphorus (20%) and potassium oxide (20%).
  • He frames the cut as compounding an existing shock from the closed Strait of Hormuz, which alone accounts for 24% of world ammonia exports. He expects Brazil, China, and India to be hit particularly hard, alongside the US.
  • He attributes Russia's fertilizer shortage to Ukrainian strikes on Russian production, not the export halt being pure leverage. He cites Ukraine destroying roughly 15% of Russia's oil production capacity and a February strike on the Dorogobuzh PJSC plant, which he says produces about 11% of Russia's ammonium nitrate output, while other producers like the US, India, Canada, and Saudi Arabia are already near capacity after ramping up post-2022.
Silver AllianceSilver demand “fueled” by EV demand and high gas prices
  • Vehicle electrification is scaling up silver demand. A gas-powered car uses about 28 g of silver, a hybrid about 34 g, and an EV up to 50 g, so the shift toward EVs directly raises silver consumption per vehicle sold.
  • Auto-sector silver demand is on track to strain an already tight market. The speaker cites the sector consuming around 88 million oz by the end of 2026, rising to about 92 million oz by 2027 — a figure she says is already 10 million oz more than the silver currently held in COMEX vaults.
  • Persistent supply deficits are pushing automakers to buy silver directly from miners. The speaker says deficits have run 5-6 years and are expected through 2027, so manufacturers skip middlemen and pay up, since the few hundred dollars per car is trivial against per-vehicle margins she puts at $10,000 or more; she predicts this demand will eventually force the $67-70/oz price higher.
Master InvestorIs Lloyd Blankfein seeing echoes of 2008 crisis?
  • Private credit is what he'd be most nervous about today. Asked whether swapping subprime for private credit gives him déjà vu, Blankfein says yes. He says a risk manager should always be anxious and "looking around corners," and private credit is the thing he would point to.
  • Years without a crisis have left kindling for a spark. He describes a forest floor covered in kindling. Possible sparks include private equity, private credit, or oil suddenly doubling because of the Gulf conflict. The world might absorb any of these at another time, but there has been no real problem in "15 years or more," while crises usually come every four or five years. So assets have piled up on balance sheets that are probably worth less than people think.
  • Private equity's failure to sell suggests portfolio companies are overvalued. PE firms are under pressure to return capital, and some struggle to raise new funds because they haven't. Yet they did not sell even during a near-unprecedented period of record equity prices and easy financing. He infers that the companies may have been overpaid for or are marked too high. He predicts a "forced reckoning" of selling and capital raising eventually.
Dr. Jon KrohnHow Attention was Invented for Neural Networks (with Prof. Kyunghyun Cho)
  • He took up machine translation on his supervisor's hunch, untrained in NLP. After joining Bengio's lab in Montreal in August 2013, when it had about 35 to 40 people against Mila's roughly 1,500 now, Cho picked machine translation from four options. Bengio told him it was the next problem to tackle. Cho read textbooks and old papers rather than many recent ones, citing Geoff Hinton's warning that past papers impose constraints that may no longer hold.
  • Early neural translation stalled on hard-to-train, hard-to-scale recurrent networks. Cho describes the problem as underfitting: gated connections helped, but the sequential nature of recurrent nets blocked scaling. He says a Google team led by Ilya Sutskever executed a similar idea far better on eight GPUs in one machine while his group used one.
  • University labs should improve algorithms, not chase data and compute. Cho names three ways to scale a system: more data, which he leaves to companies; more compute; or algorithms that change the slope of the scaling law. Only the third suits universities in his view, and it cannot be done systematically, because it needs an "aha moment".
  • The attention idea was obviously right on first hearing. Dzmitry Bahdanau, a master's intern Bengio sent to Cho, described the prototype of attention one morning, and Cho says he sensed halfway through that it would work. Bahdanau had it running in three to four days. Cho adds that variable-length language sequences made vanishing gradients much worse than in vision or speech.
Professor G MarketsIs the Oil Crisis About to Break Global Supply Chains?
  • This post includes paid content that is not available publicly. See the original source.
Polis PanditNobody Watches When Trump Moves Markets
  • A suspicious $2+ billion trading pattern preceded Trump's March 23, 2026 Iran ceasefire announcement by about 15 minutes. Someone went long $1.5 billion in S&P e-mini futures while shorting $580 million in oil futures during a thin-liquidity, pre-market window with no public catalyst — volume hit roughly 9x the five-day average baseline — and equities soared while oil cratered right after the Truth Social post.
  • This mirrors an April 2025 pattern around the Liberation Day tariff pause that was never investigated. Large short-dated call options were placed ahead of both Trump's "great time to buy" post and the tariff-pause announcement hours later; the author estimates a $100,000 bet would have returned roughly $21 million, and a Polymarket prediction market on whether anyone would be charged resolved "No."
  • Jurisdictional fragmentation across the SEC, CFTC, and offshore prediction markets leaves this activity effectively unpoliced. Equity options fall under the SEC, futures fall under the CFTC (which has taken no public action despite issuing a generic insider-trading reminder), and Polymarket operates largely outside U.S. reach via VPN access and anonymous crypto wallets — with one trader netting nearly $1 million at a 93% win rate on unannounced military operations.
  • The enforcement apparatus itself has been hollowed out from within. SEC enforcement chief Margaret Ryan resigned eight days before the Iran trades after being blocked from pursuing cases touching Trump's circle (SEC enforcement actions against public companies hit a two-decade low in FY2025), while the CFTC killed a Biden-era criminal probe into Polymarket and then licensed the platform for U.S. customers.
Professor G MarketsTrump’s War is Already Out of Control — with Ian Bremmer and Dan Senor
  • This post includes paid content that is not available publicly. See the original source.
GeoHussarAn incredible book about how the world works: “new ideas from the economists” by Todd buchholz
  • He recommends "New Ideas from Dead Economists" by Todd Buchholz, a former White House economics advisor under George H.W. Bush, as a guide to economic theory from the 1700s through the 1990s. The book covers mercantilism, Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations, physiocracy, and thinkers including Malthus, Ricardo, Marshall, Marx, Keynes, and Veblen.
  • He highlights the book's account of Karl Marx's poor personal finances as a detail he found surprising. He also cites Thorstein Veblen's theory of the "irrational consumer," who buys to follow trends rather than out of need or even taste.
  • He frames the book's central tension as Keynesian government intervention versus Friedman's free-market minimalism, concluding both extremes risk corruption — big government or unchecked monopoly. His own takeaway is that an educated, engaged, voting public is the check against either failure mode.
All Things FinancialThe supply decline is combining with hyper connectivity to produce cascading global failures 3-24-2026
  • Seven products already cascading, ranked by effect rather than by headline attention. Liquefied petroleum gas hitting India, Southeast Asia, parts of Africa and Australia. Polypropylene, already in cascade, feeding packaging, automotive and medical devices with force majeure declarations stacking. Ammonia and urea as the silent killer, since Gulf natural gas is the ammonia feedstock and the disruption lands directly in the northern hemisphere planting window — where a two-to-three-week delay becomes a full-season yield problem, against a prior estimate of 50% production loss without urea. Aluminium, which needs the intense heat Gulf gas provides, with restart timelines of three to six months minimum once furnaces go down. Sulfur. Jet fuel, with a quarter of Southeast Asian aircraft already grounded. And thermal coal, as Japan, South Korea and India swing marginal generation from LNG back to coal simultaneously.
  • The connective tissue across all seven is that none of them are priced for duration. Markets remain conditioned to treat this as a temporary geopolitical event when it has already become a genuine supply shock. And the two-to-three-week window matters precisely because that is when physical inventory buffers run out and the physical-to-paper dislocation stops being avoidable — which returns the problem to the same commodity-pricing break he keeps tracking.
  • He then constructs a peace hypothesis rather than waiting for one, and labels it as a hypothesis. China rebuilds Iran, converting a 25-year cooperation agreement into active reconstruction. Turkey supplies the Gulf states with Sunni security cover — air defence, ground deterrence and intelligence — in exchange for deeply discounted energy that resolves its own structural energy deficit. And the United States, having lost the strategic argument and facing domestic exhaustion, negotiates a face-saving exit from Gulf basing across three to seven years. The result is a Middle East that is neither American-dominated nor Iranian-dominated but sits firmly inside a China-Turkey-Iran gravitational field where the three offset each other — with the Gulf states greatly diminished in the process.
GeoHussarThe United States is failing in this war #iran #persiangulf #drones #warfare #geopolitics
  • He argues the US is "failing" without necessarily "losing" the Iran war, comparing it to the 1939–40 Winter War, where the Soviet Union defeated Finland at devastating cost. He cites roughly 150,000 Soviet deaths versus 25,000 Finnish deaths, with Finland surrendering only after running out of ammunition — a comparison he says was difficult for him to draw.
  • He estimates Iran's few-billion-dollar drone program is undermining roughly a trillion dollars of US military spending, framing Iran's continued ability to disrupt Strait of Hormuz shipping with cheap drones as a strategic embarrassment despite the US having "obliterated most of Iran's military."
  • He criticizes the US for not taking up Zelensky's prior offer of a joint drone and counter-drone program, and reads the president's claim of "productive conversations" with Iran, after a 48-hour ultimatum, as face-saving rather than substantive. He suggests the real motive is a positive week in the stock market, and points to further analysis by a commentator he names, Chad Scott.
Loss DogBitcoin vs Gold : The Unexpected Stable Asset Revealed #shorts #bitcoin #gold #wearelossdog
  • Bitcoin is now the more stable asset next to gold, the hosts argue. They call crypto the "boomer trade" now that attention has shifted to metals and oil, yet note gold swung from up 30 one night to down 60 the next morning around the $4,400 level while bitcoin sat near $70,000 — a reversal one host calls hard to believe even as he states it.
Scott Hanselman150 million tokens just to make a plan
  • The clip is not the passage its title describes. It carries no mention of 150 million tokens or of planning. It is instead the grounding exchange from the Allen Stewart episode: Hanselman notes that Russinovich complains of models gaslighting him and commenting out tests, and the guest says early language models produced SMILES chemical notation that was "a thousand percent wrong", so they are "not great for science without proper grounding". The 150-million-token planning figure is in the full interview.
Professor G MarketsApple Doubles Down on China as Trump Blinks
  • This post includes paid content that is not available publicly. See the original source.
GCastCreating a Video Using M365 Copilot [GCast 213]
  • M365 Copilot turns a PowerPoint deck into a narrated video. Giard calls it "a pretty new feature", reached from Create, then "Create a video", in full-screen Copilot or at m365.cloud.microsoft. It reads each slide's pictures, text and notes, uses AI to write a script, and then generates a voiceover for it. His short deck took about 30 seconds; he says a longer one might take minutes.
  • You can edit the generated script, voice and music, then re-render. The narrator mispronounced Tufte, and adding a letter to the name in the transcript and clicking update fixed it. He also rewrote a line the same way. Music is off by default. The default voice was "Fable", and there are five voices, male and female, in styles such as "soothing and calm", measured, spirited and quick. The whole script can also be regenerated in another tone, such as more confident, casual or playful.
  • The source must be in OneDrive and shareable for export. Export and share renders an MP4 and uploads it to OneDrive, where you can copy a link, watch it or download it; it can also be opened in Clipchamp, which he skips in favour of his Adobe tools. Giard says a file with locked-down privacy settings won't be turned into a shared video, so the feature can't be used to get around those settings.
  • A Word document works too, but the narration paraphrases it. His blog post with images took about 45 seconds. The same transcript, music and voice controls apply, and this version adds a choice of colours and image branding. He thinks the deck version just used the deck's own colours.
  • A text prompt can generate a video or a short clip. "Create a video" from his panda prompt produced a narrated piece that "didn't do exactly what I was expecting". The separate clip option took about two and a half minutes and produced an 8-second clip, which he says is higher quality and closer to the request; he thinks the maximum is 7 or 10 seconds. Both refused a named copyrighted song. The clip tool ran for minutes before failing without a reason, which he believes was copyright. He guesses violence or a real person might also be blocked, but says he hasn't tried.
Technology and FriendsEldert Grootenboer on Reliability in Azure Messaging [EPISODE 899]
  • Single-region redundancy is now automatic and free. Grootenboer, the product manager for Azure Service Bus, says every message is stored as three copies on different racks in one data center, or in three data centers miles apart in regions with availability zones. Customers no longer have to enable zone redundancy themselves.
  • Geo-replication gives a hot standby, not active-active reads. The now-GA feature for Service Bus and Event Hubs lets one namespace name a primary and a secondary region; the secondary is invisible until promoted. He says Service Bus cannot read from both regions because each receive is a read plus a write, so consistency across regions would be very hard; for Event Hubs, whose clients control where they read in a stream, reading from both regions is being designed and he expects it in "months, maybe a year".
  • Choose synchronous if data matters most, asynchronous if uptime does. Synchronous replication waits for the secondary to commit, giving RPO zero, but adds cross-region latency (he cites a customer pairing Australia with Western Europe) and makes the application unreachable if either region goes down, since there is no quorum with one secondary. Asynchronous commits on the primary at once with minimal added latency, keeps running if the secondary fails, and lets the customer set a maximum replication lag.
  • Size the maximum replication lag to your real failover time. He says the maximum is a ceiling, not the expected loss: customers in production with normal throughput typically see 30 seconds to 2 minutes of lag, and incoming requests are throttled only when the maximum is hit. Setting it to 5 minutes when a failover takes at least 30 leaves you facing the same throttling as synchronous mode.
  • Promotion stays in the customer's hands, planned or forced. A planned promotion cuts incoming traffic, replicates outstanding data first, then switches DNS, so clients reconnect without changes; a forced one switches immediately and loses unreplicated data. Microsoft keeps control with the customer because it can see only whole-region outages, while customers also fail over for problems in other components, to move regions or to test; a Microsoft-initiated failover is being considered, with no specific plans.
Dr. Jon KrohnAttention Co-Inventor: AI's Next Leap Isn't More Data (Ep. 977 with Kyunghyun Cho)
synopsis

Kyunghyun Cho, co-director of NYU's Global AI Frontier Lab and co-author of the 2014 neural machine translation paper that introduced attention, ends up arguing that the next step change in AI will not come from more data or compute. It will come from algorithms that actively choose what data to collect, built on models already trained broadly enough to know what is worth looking for. He is candid that he cannot say where this leads, and expects the change to feel less dramatic in hindsight than it looks in prospect.

The lab and its people. Cho co-directs the Global AI Frontier Lab with Yann LeCun. It is funded by the Korean government with NYU and hosts researchers from seven Korean institutions for visits of 3 to 12 months, with about 11 NYU principal investigators involved. He contrasts research cultures: isolated grinding in Korea, isolated work-life balance in Finland, and collective, international work in North America, which he calls the US's "superpower". He recalls telling his PhD student William Falcon that a startup and a PhD are each "200% jobs" and to take leave instead. The host puts Lightning AI's ARR at over $500 million.

How attention came about. Cho joined Yoshua Bengio's lab in August 2013, when it had about 35 to 40 people against Mila's roughly 1,500 today, and chose machine translation from Bengio's options despite having no NLP training. Recurrent networks underfitted and would not scale, and a Google team led by Ilya Sutskever executed a similar idea far better on eight GPUs. Cho names three levers for scaling: data, which he leaves to companies; compute; and algorithms that change the slope of the scaling law, the only one he thinks suits universities and one that needs an "aha moment". That moment came from intern Dzmitry Bahdanau, whose attention prototype Cho sensed would work halfway through hearing it, and which ran within three to four days. With a 50,000-word vocabulary and unknown tokens, the model translated "[unknown] Korea" as South Korea beside "friend of the United States" and North Korea beside "enemy". From this Cho concluded the models held knowledge drawn from WMT news and parliamentary data, not just translation skill.

Intelligence as information processing. Revisiting his 2018 remark that brains are biologically implemented computers, Cho says progress is "moving very fast". Problems that look like they need intelligence become tractable when framed as information flow, as with genes and proteins in biology. Current AI has partly found the right abstraction for capturing correlations, but "correlation is always just one side of the coin".

Sample efficiency reframed. The host raises dogs that learn a trick from one example. Cho answers that asking for the same performance from less passive data only makes sense for bad algorithms. Modern transformers already capture most correlations in a given dataset, and low perplexity shows it. The question becomes active: with the same budget, which data should be collected so that rare, important events turn up more often? Doing that requires a world model, which is why RL tuning works only after massive pre-training, and the purposeful data then feeds back into the general pool. He treats protein-binder screening, iterative web search and robotics as one problem, with physical work harder mainly because the physical world is fragile.

World models. Video models such as Sora and Genie bet that high-fidelity imagination yields understanding. Cho's 2025 ICML-workshop best paper with LeCun on latent dynamics, and LeCun's JEPA, bet on high-level abstraction, like planning a Paris trip without imagining the walk to the gate. He calls the choice unclear, since step-by-step prediction suits digital hardware, but says the work must move into latent space.

Teaching and retrieval. In his undergraduate course about 80% of 200 computer-science students had never installed a coding agent, so Cho now builds one app a week with agents and has students follow. He traces RAG-style re-ranking to student Rodrigo Nogueira's 2016 goal of an autonomous researcher, a goal that led to fine-tuned BERT re-ranking. He values models that see across fields no single human can master.

  • The next leap needs active data collection, not more passive data. Cho argues that large transformers already capture nearly all correlations in any given dataset, as shown by very low validation perplexity, so "sample efficiency" on passive data is the wrong question. The real problem is choosing which data to collect on a fixed budget so that rare "aha" events occur more often and perhaps systematically.
  • Active exploration depends on a model already trained massively on passive data. In Cho's view a model must already know how the world works to recognise what is worth collecting, which he says is why RL tuning works only after broad pre-training. He describes a loop: purposeful data joins the general pile and becomes the base for the next round. Drug-binder screening, web search and robotics are, to him, the same problem.
  • Attention began as an intern's idea that was obviously right. Cho recounts joining Yoshua Bengio's lab of about 35 to 40 people in 2013 and taking up machine translation on Bengio's hunch, after recurrent networks stalled while a Google team led by Ilya Sutskever ran a similar system on eight GPUs. Intern Dzmitry Bahdanau described attention one morning and had it working in three to four days. A demo that translated "[unknown] Korea is a friend of the United States" as South Korea and "an enemy" as North Korea showed Cho the models held world knowledge.
  • Whether world models need step-by-step imagination remains open. Video generators such as Sora and Genie bet on high-fidelity prediction. Cho's latent-dynamics work with Yann LeCun, which won a best paper award at a 2025 ICML workshop, and LeCun's JEPA bet on high-level abstraction instead. Cho says step-by-step prediction suits digital hardware, but holds that the work must happen in latent rather than pixel space, adding that he has "been wrong many times".
  • Most of his computer-science students had never installed a coding agent. About 80% of the 200 had none, so Cho has rebuilt his NYU undergraduate course around agent-built apps on the view that students should make their mistakes in school rather than on the job. He says education must change fast enough that the 99% who are not "100X engineers" benefit too.
Professor G Markets$1T Moved on Iran “Talks” — Did They Even Happen?
  • This post includes paid content that is not available publicly. See the original source.
Professor G MarketsTrump Sends ICE into Airports and Sparks Chaos as Markets Swing Wild — with Rep. Sarah McBride
  • This post includes paid content that is not available publicly. See the original source.
GeoHussarWhy rare earths are so special and useful #chemistry #rareearth #Tech #Science
  • Rare earths (the lanthanide series, plus yttrium and scandium) are valuable because they're the only elements with electrons filling the 4f orbital, a stable, precise energy state other elements lack. He explains atoms have electron shells containing S, P, D, and F orbitals, and only rare earths have electrons occupying that particular fourth-shell F orbital.
  • He explains the 4f orbital's position in the fourth energy shell specifically, rather than a higher shell, is what makes it stable enough to be technologically useful. Electrons in higher energy levels are more exposed to surrounding atoms and chemical reactions that would disrupt them.
  • He frames this specific orbital chemistry as the underlying reason rare earths are essential for lasers, magnets, and other high-tech equipment, and offers a follow-up covering what each individual rare-earth element is used for.
GeoHussarPodcast Episode 9: Can the US defeat the IRGC?
synopsis

The host interviews a journalist and open-source intelligence analyst — a former Peace Corps volunteer in Albania who has reported from Lebanon, Iraqi Kurdistan and elsewhere and studied at the RAND School of Public Policy — who ends up arguing that the US cannot fully "defeat" the IRGC because its nuclear program can be slowed but not provably destroyed, and because the group's decentralized structure means a single splinter faction can wreck any deal the rest accept.

On reading the region. Drawing on years living in Iraqi Kurdistan, Lebanon and Somalia, the guest argues American discourse flattens the Middle East's tribal and sectarian diversity into a single "backwards" caricature, and criticizes what he calls performative American self-criticism as a form of narcissism that erases other countries' own agency in their problems.

Bounding "victory" over Iran. Asked whether the US can win, he says war aims have shifted "daily," but frames the nuclear question skeptically: warnings that Iran was near a bomb go back decades, no photograph can prove a dismantled program, and a plutonium pathway via Iran's power plant remains open even if uranium enrichment is set back. He judges Iran's missiles cannot reach the US homeland, but that Chinese resupply is reaching the Shahed drone program via ships escorted through the Strait of Hormuz — equipment that becomes a target only once offloaded from Chinese vessels.

Escalation risk and domestic will. He reads a joint Chinese-Russian naval exercise near Bandar Abbas before the war as a deliberate "tripwire" against strikes there, comparable to why the US avoided a no-fly zone over Ukraine, though both he and the host judge Russia would lose a direct confrontation. He argues Trump lacks the "domestic political will" constraint that shaped Biden's caution, and describes a rejected policy paper he wrote, the "Tehran Gambit," proposing Trump negotiate directly with Iran's leadership to rebrand the JCPOA under his own name rather than pursue military escalation — an option he says was foreclosed once strikes killed IRGC leadership, making negotiation now unlikely.

Where he expects this to land. He argues regional energy exports are "dials, not switches": Bahrain has declared force majeure and Kuwait has suspended LNG production, and restoring Gulf states' confidence to resume output will take "months and years," not weeks, regardless of how the fighting ends. He expects the IRGC to fall back on a decentralized "mosaic defense," under which even a ceasefire agreed by most factions could be broken by one holdout group launching strikes on targets like Dubai or Abu Dhabi.

  • The guest, a journalist with graduate degrees from Oxford and RAND and prior work as an OSINT geopolitical analyst, doubts the US can be said to "win" against the IRGC because Iran's decentralized "mosaic defense" leaves no single interlocutor to sign a deal with. He describes roughly 20 semi-independent regional IRGC cells that could each agree to stand down while one holdout later resumes drone and missile strikes on targets like Dubai or Abu Dhabi.
  • The guest calls fully halting Iran's nuclear program an unverifiable war aim, comparing current warnings to years of "two weeks from a bomb" claims, and notes a plutonium path via Iran's existing power plant stays open even if uranium enrichment is set back. He argues no photograph can prove a nuclear program's absence, and separately notes Iran's missiles don't yet threaten the US homeland directly, though he flags reports of China supplying Shahed drone components via ships escorted through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The guest argues regional oil and gas disruption will take "months and years," not days, to reverse, framing it as "not switches, these are dials." He cites Bahrain declaring force majeure on oil deliveries and Kuwait suspending LNG production indefinitely, arguing Gulf states will need credible security guarantees before resuming output and rebuilding shipping logistics and damaged naval assets.
  • The guest says he drafted a "Tehran Gambit" policy paper before Operation Midnight Hammer, arguing Trump's unusual political durability with his base could have been used for a direct, high-level negotiated deal with Iran instead of military action. He describes this as a missed chance to rebrand the JCPOA on Trump's terms while distancing the US from lockstep alignment with Israel; both speakers agree that using violence for political expediency builds in long-term instability neither intended.
Scott HanselmanThere's no such thing as a wasted token
  • No token spent on science research is wasted. Stewart argues that a partial memory may be irrelevant to the current challenge problem but relevant to other research, and could be the thing that unlocks a breakthrough. The clip is from the Allen Stewart episode.
  • Keeping everything trades cheap storage against expensive tokens. In Hanselman's framing storage is the cheapest thing in the cloud and making tokens the most expensive, so saving all output spares agents from restarting from scratch. The guest does not respond within the clip.
Professor G MarketsWhy the Grifter Economy Is Booming, Raising Money-Smart Kids, and Forming Your Own Opinions
  • This post includes paid content that is not available publicly. See the original source.
All Things FinancialIn the shadow of Kings, ignition flickers: not victory thru strength but through mutual ruin 3-23-2026
  • He identifies a genuine gap in his own typology, which is what makes this episode worth keeping. A node state controls a chokepoint and can militarily enforce it — Poland closing the rail corridor. A toll state sits on a critical transit route and extracts rent, but needs the flow to continue: overplay the hand and traffic reroutes, so the toll disappears and the leverage is bounded by self-interest in the system's continuation — Hungary and gas. Iran is neither. It does not control Hormuz in any legal or ownership sense, and in normal times 20% of global seaborne oil passes without its permission or payment. It cannot tax the flow. What it can do is end the flow entirely, at cost to itself.
  • That produces a fourth category: the ignition state, whose leverage is destructive rather than extractive. It cannot win a conventional engagement and does not control a chokepoint in the node sense — it controls the trigger, the capacity to set a cascade of harm in motion that vastly exceeds its own military capability. The measure of its power is willingness to absorb punishment. The objective is not victory but making the cost of confrontation intolerable for every party in the system, including neutral ones.
  • The asymmetry is why the situation resists ordinary settlement, and he states it precisely. A king state wants the system to work on its own terms. An ignition state is indifferent to whether the system works at all, because system function was never the source of its power — which means you cannot offer it a better position within the system as an inducement. Retaliation threats fail because it has already priced in enormous punishment. He also notes the ratchet: escalation is faster and cleaner than de-escalation, nuclear steps are irreversible while proxy activation is partially reversible. And his blunt read of the position — with more than 8,000 sites struck and the US claiming to have run out of targets, the most powerful armed forces in the world are losing, because the decisions are being made as though this were the old world.
GeoHussarIran main limit strikes against Saudi Arabia due to concern about a Saudi military response #saudi
  • He reports, from a single unconfirmed source, that Iran is limiting strikes on Saudi Arabia specifically out of fear of a Saudi military response. He cites globalfirepower.com ranking Iran 16th and Saudi Arabia 25th in overall power before the war, but argues Saudi Arabia is now clearly stronger given its centralized command versus Iran's damaged, decentralized forces.
  • He cites Saudi Arabia's far larger air force — 917 aircraft, including roughly 360–370 fighters and 211 F-15s, versus Iran's pre-war 551, mostly now degraded — and its far larger defense budget, $64B versus Iran's $9.2B, as the core imbalance.
  • He warns that a Saudi attack would trigger Pakistan's mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia, opening a second front against Iran. He notes Pakistan's population is triple Iran's and it is a nuclear power, and recalls an Iranian airstrike into Pakistan two years earlier that killed a few people, drawing a larger Pakistani retaliation that killed nine before both sides stood down.
Crosstalk SolutionsInstalling Your Own Offline Wikipedia & AI Server — Project Nomad Setup
  • Project Nomad supports only x86 bare-metal installs for now. Raspberry Pi and other ARM devices, VMs and hypervisors such as Proxmox, WSL 2 and macOS are unsupported. The host says some users have made those work, but they are on their own, and he points Pi users to the Internet in a Box project instead. An old PC works fine as an information store, but its AI performance will be poor. The free, open-source project is Crosstalk's own, and he says it currently costs him about $1,000 a month in hosting and development.
  • The base OS should be the stable Ubuntu LTS release. The host uses Ubuntu 24.04 LTS, not the newer 25.10. Desktop or Server both work; the host uses Desktop as friendlier for Windows and Mac users. The install image is almost 6 GB. He writes it to USB with Rufus, moves the USB stick ahead of Windows in the BIOS boot order, and erases the whole disk. After updating, SSH is optional. The one-command installer from the GitHub page also installs curl, finishes in about a minute, and serves the dashboard on port 8080. It was version 1.30.1 as of recording.
  • A modest disk holds everything worth downloading. In the host's experience a 1 TB disk is enough for all of Wikipedia with pictures (about 100 GB) and all of Khan Academy. The setup wizard installs the Kiwix information library, Kolibri education and an Ollama-based AI assistant. It offers essential, standard and comprehensive content tiers that can be changed later, and offline map regions (Pacific Northwest plus Hawaii was about 3 GB). One pitfall: AI model downloads queued before Ollama is installed fail, so dismiss them and add models afterwards.
  • Without a GPU, AI answers on a mid-range mini PC are slow. On a Minisforum MS-01 with a Core i9-13900H and no GPU, a simple question took about 30 seconds before the answer started. The host calls that usable but not spectacular. The built-in benchmark scored the machine 69.6, which he calls middle of the road, against leaderboard entries of 100. Maps cover only the US so far; international maps are in progress.
Professor G MarketsWATCH: The Next Inflation Wave Is Already Here
  • This post includes paid content that is not available publicly. See the original source.
Dr. Jon KrohnThe Doctor Is No Longer the Smartest Person in the Room (with Zack Kass)
  • The four principles for the AI era are deliberately non-technical. Kass's are go outside, learn how to learn, be human, and lead with optimism, and he notes that some first-edition copies carry a different pair of principles. "Learn how to learn" means the ability to acquire skills matters more than any single skill.
  • Device addiction, not technology itself, broke the link between prosperity and happiness. Kass says happiness tracked standard of living for nearly all of history until around 2010. Japan and Korea are now among the wealthiest and least happy nations, with device-driven reclusiveness contributing to population decline. He insists this is no indictment of anesthesia, engines or antibiotics, only possibly of social media and screens.
  • People doubt they will work less because they have forgotten free time. When people tell Kass technology will only make them work more, he asks to see their screen time, and most react with shame or refuse. He wants technology aimed at cutting the cost of housing, health care and education, not only discretionary goods.
  • Service professionals are now chosen for human qualities, not results. In Kass's account, clients picked wealth managers and real estate agents for alpha in 1995, still believed the best could beat the market in 2005, and by 2025 mostly accept they cannot. Wealth managers now get fired for not picking up the phone, and agents for being annoying.
  • Once machines out-diagnose doctors, bedside manner becomes the product. At his father's lifetime-achievement award after 40 years in oncology, during which breast cancer survival rose from 35% to 90%, a patient said she got identical prognoses from three oncologists, so "the doctor was no longer the smartest thing in the room". Kass concludes that if oncology can be cognitively commoditised, people will have to compete on compassion, courage and wisdom, and that the "ambient dread" about this comes from overexposure to negative news.
GeoHussarIranballistic missiles can reach Europe (in Theory) #nato #geopolitics #ballistic #warfare
  • Iran demonstrated a roughly 4,000 km ballistic missile range by launching two ICBMs at the Diego Garcia base, though one failed and the other was intercepted. The missile is identified as the Khorramshahr, reportedly capable of carrying cluster and other unconventional warheads.
  • He argues Iran hasn't struck Europe despite the range because it expects NATO's full 32-member alliance would intervene against the IRGC directly, something he thinks would only be attempted if Iran believed it had already lost everything.
  • He notes three prior instances of Iranian ballistic missiles entering, and being shot down in, Turkish airspace, which Iran denied launching, leaving open whether Iran lied, a false flag occurred, or an uncoordinated IRGC "mosaic" cell acted alone. He suggests the timing of this revelation is convenient for US efforts to draw NATO into the war.
All Things FinancialHiding structural problems with a cosmetic fix, where the real issue underneath is worse. 3-22-2026
  • The 1993 World Trade Center anecdote is the structural metaphor and it earns its place. A month into working on the 62nd floor when the bomb went off; the next morning he brought coffee to three police officers and was walked to the blown-open garage door. What he saw was a crater he describes as three football fields wide, cars, girders, cement and iron rods collapsed into it — and the officer's question was the same as his: how is it still standing? Everything underneath was buttressing the building until it came down eight years later. That, he argues, is what the oil market looks like now: the visible layer intact, the load-bearing structure beneath it destroyed.
  • The financing layer is where the damage sits, and the mechanism is legal rather than economic. Bilateral OTC swaps, letters of credit, prepayment financing and cargo loans are all priced and margined against the exchange settlement price. So when the exchange breaks, every downstream contract that references that settlement loses its legal basis simultaneously — not merely its value. A letter of credit with no valid price to point at is not enforceable, and without it the ship does not sail.
  • The consequence almost nobody discusses is that nobody knows who owns the oil on the water. Trading houses fund their entire book from these facilities — taking letters of credit to banks and repo'ing them — so every layer traces back to a document of title asserting that a named party owns specific barrels on a specific ship. The global banking system's exposure to physical oil is secured by that paper. And the post-2020 work following the negative-price episode found collateral monitoring far weaker than assumed: the banks could not reliably identify who owned the cargo or even what grade of crude was in the ship.
GeoHussarZoroastrianism was Persia’s first faith #History #persia #religions #historyfacts
  • Zoroastrianism, centered on the creator god Ahura Mazda and a cosmic struggle between good and evil, appears to predate Judaism according to some recent scholarship, contrary to his earlier assumption. Persia's Sassanid dynasty fell to the Rashidun Caliphate's Islamic expansion in the 7th century AD, after which many devoted Zoroastrians, especially priests, fled rather than face persecution or the jizya tax.
  • He recounts the sugar-in-milk legend of Zoroastrian refugees settling in Gujarat, India, where thousands fled and where nearly 100,000 people of Persian descent live today. Despite the story's cultural resonance, he notes the Persian refugees themselves stopped practicing Zoroastrianism within a few generations, even as the religion survived elsewhere.
  • He credits several post-Abbasid Persian dynasties — the Buwayhids, Samanids, Saffarids, and Zaydis — with resisting Arabization by promoting Persian language and culture, and says some attempted to revive Zoroastrianism. That revival attempt largely failed, though he notes Zoroastrianism survived regardless as a living religion.
Mohamed El-erianThe Weekly Look at the Global Economy and Markets
  • Qatar sidelined 17% of its LNG capacity for three to five years after an Israeli attack on Iran's South Pars field, prompting the IEA's chief to call the conflict the "greatest threat to global energy in history." This came even as Trump said he had secured a promise from Prime Minister Netanyahu not to repeat strikes on Iran's energy fields, a promise hostilities on both sides did not bear out.
  • Fed Chair Powell's press conference overshadowed a "meh" policy statement, with Powell saying he won't leave the Board until the DOJ investigation concludes and may stay on even after his term as Chair ends. Treasury Secretary Bessent called the move "outside of historic norms," while the Reserve Bank of Australia broke ranks with a 25-basis-point hike he reads as a leading indicator for the ECB and Bank of England.
  • A "dash to cash" hit every asset class: US equities logged a fourth straight losing week, with the Nasdaq down 6.9% year-to-date, gold fell below $4,500, and Brent closed at $112. The 20-day correlation between oil prices and equity losses surged to 0.89, and yield curves bear-flattened as traders pushed Fed rate-cut expectations into 2027 while pricing 2026 hikes for the BOE and ECB.
Polis PanditHow Private Credit Killed Investor Protection
  • The SEC's 2023 "Audit Rule" would have required independent valuation audits for private credit funds, but the entire industry sued and killed it. The National Association of Private Fund Managers, Managed Funds Association, and three other trade groups won a unanimous Fifth Circuit ruling in 2024 vacating the rule for exceeding SEC statutory authority, and the SEC declined to appeal further.
  • Without that rule, fund managers still mark their own books with no independent check on value, unlike public markets with constant mark-to-market pricing; the only remaining check, a custody audit, confirms an asset exists and is held properly — not what it's actually worth, since managers are financially incentivized to mark generously.
  • The timing compounds the risk: the rule was killed just before retail money entered the market at scale. A 2025 Trump executive order opened private credit to 401(k) flows, and the author argues fund managers were "licking their chops" for this retail exposure that the original 2023 rule was specifically designed to protect once it fully materialized.
  • The consequences are no longer theoretical, per the author: Blue Owl's retail private credit fund has gated quarterly withdrawals it originally promised investors, and other firms including BlackRock have marked positions to zero — outcomes the author says an independent valuation audit requirement was designed to prevent or at least surface earlier.
Dr. Jon KrohnWhy the Classroom Must Change in the Age of AI (with Zack Kass)
  • The author now sees his book as written for parents. Kass says he wrote The Next Renaissance to test his own arguments. After 37,000 copies sold in its first month, he concluded its audience is anyone raising a child who wants evidence to defend their hope against a "relentlessly dystopian" news backdrop.
  • Schools should hold parents, teachers and students accountable for outcomes. Kass credits Eva Moskowitz with building Success Academy, a charter network in New York on accountability principles that he says does "a much better job". He calls it roughly the largest such school system in the country.
  • Self-guided screen learning for part of the day works for some students. Under McKenzie Price's Alpha School model, with two hours a day at a terminal, students in the same grade learn different things at their own pace on a terminal, with "guides" rather than teachers, and spend the remaining five or six hours on physical activity and life skills. Kass, a friend and supporter of Price, notes its higher attrition rate and says some students opt out immediately.
  • Childhood should be a chance to know yourself free of economic incentives. Drawing on Rudolf Steiner, Kass argues industrial schooling sacrificed the child's "soul and spirit" to job preparation, a trade he concedes paid off economically. With intelligence abundant, he says, the teacher's role is to inspire rather than be the smartest person in the room, and he frames the next renaissance partly as a spiritual awakening that starts in the classroom.
GeoHussarThe war has made America’s debt problem and economy so much worse.
  • US debt costs are unprecedented in combination, not in isolation. He notes debt is about 125% of GDP (last matched in WWII) while rates on various maturities run 3.5–5%, pushing annual interest to roughly $1 trillion, about 3% of GDP — a burden he says was last seen in the 1980s, but without today's rate level.
  • Oil has spiked from the 50s–60s into triple digits within eight months. He points to WTI and Brent both surging past $100 a barrel, driven by supply contraction from the US-Iran war and Iran's strikes on other Persian Gulf producers, which he expects to feed through into broader US inflation.
  • Safe-haven behavior has inverted, and he won't say where the money went. Gold fell below $5,000/oz as rate-cut expectations evaporated, and Treasury yields rose instead of falling despite the war — he declines to name the destination of that capital, calling it investment advice, and proposes that European and Japanese naval protection of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz would resolve the underlying problem.
AI Analyst LabHow to analyze A/B test results with Claude and Claude Code
synopsis

The lesson argues that reading an A/B test off a dashboard misses most of what an experiment can show, and it ends on a demo in which an apparently clean 14% win turns out to carry a churn risk for new users, found only by the segment step that rushed teams skip. The presenter teaches it, while the hosts watch the chat. The analysis runs first in the Claude web app and then as one prompt through Claude Code agents.

The lifecycle. The presenter sets the "green ships, red kills" habit against a lifecycle: why, design, power, run, analyze, decide and ramp. A hypothesis must say why the change should work ("we believe… because…"), and it names one north-star metric and one guardrail. The running example tests regional playlists on a fictional service, Streamflow, with streams per user as north star and churn as guardrail, on a data set the presenter generated.

Power and its absence. At 5% significance and 80% power the design calls for 6 weeks and 25,000 users. A 5% lift needs about 6 weeks, a 3% lift 16, and 12,500 users per arm reaches exactly 80% power at a 5% effect. The free repo's design skill drew these as a feasibility curve and a power-sensitivity matrix. Skip the step and teams run too short, peek and ship on day three, and cannot read a null result.

Running, deciding, ramping. During the run the presenter checks sample ratio mismatch and novelty effects. At the decision, a significant but tiny lift may not justify its complexity. Changes that matter ramp through 5, 25, 50 and 100% with a holdout kept, because engagement gains can reach revenue only over months. Eight questions separate good analysis from great, and the segment cut is the one most often skipped.

The demo. The checks passed, with weeks five and six flagged. The t-test gave a significant 14% lift, which the presenter calls the point where many would announce a winner. The segments showed churn worsening for new users and improving for existing ones. The ROI step valued the existing-user gain at 53,700 users and $11.8 million of lifetime value, and 21 times infrastructure cost with the churn benefit zeroed, so it advised shipping to existing users only. The presenter adds that the column names must be defined, and that some segment-level calls cannot be built in practice, so a person decides. In Claude Code an analyzer agent, a readout agent and a Google Doc agent produced the same readout plus a rough deck. The full workflow was not yet in the free repo.

Validation. Asked how to trust it for a CEO report, Shane says the analyst is accountable. He backtests on past analyses, keeps the code beside the results, and points to Karpathy's "auto research" loop for anyone with a few hundred ground-truth experiments. The presenter would make metric owners accountable for the skills' context and review junior work until nearly every review passes.

  • Treat an experiment as a lifecycle, not a traffic light. The presenter's complaint is the "green means ship, red means kill" dashboard read; the lifecycle runs why, design, power, run, analyze, decide and ramp. A hypothesis takes the form "we believe this change will impact this metric because of this reason", where the "because" forces a mechanism, and pairs one north-star metric with one guardrail. The running example, on a data set the presenter generated, tests regional playlists on a fictional "Streamflow" service, with streams per user as north star and churn rate as guardrail.
  • Skipping power analysis leads to peeking and unreadable nulls. Using the usual 5% significance and 80% power, the design came to 6 weeks and 25,000 users, since 12,500 per arm hits exactly 80% power at a 5% effect; a 5% lift needs about 6 weeks and a 3% lift 16. Without it, the presenter says, teams run too short, ship noise after spotting significance on day three, and cannot tell a true null from an underpowered one. The free repo's design skill generated the feasibility curve and power-sensitivity matrix shown.
  • Statistical significance is not a ship decision, and segments are skipped most. While running, check sample ratio mismatch and novelty effects; at decision time, weigh practical significance against added complexity. Changes that affect the wider product should ramp gradually (5%, 25%, 50%, 100%) and keep a holdout, because, the presenter says from experience, engagement wins can show up in revenue only over about six months. Of eight analysis questions, the segment cut is the one teams rushing for quarter-end wins most often skip.
  • The demo's 14% "winner" hid a churn risk for new users. Run step by step in the Claude web app, the analysis passed the ratio-mismatch, balance and duration checks, flagging weeks five and six, then found a statistically significant 14% lift. The segment step found the churn guardrail degraded for new users while existing users improved, with a Simpson's paradox noted. The ROI step put the existing-user gain at 53,700 users and $11.8 million of lifetime value, still 21 times infrastructure cost when the churn benefit is zeroed out, and recommended shipping per segment. The presenter warns that undocumented column names get guessed at, and that some per-segment calls, such as excluding the Pacific region, may be impractical: the system does 80–90% of the work and a person makes the call. In Claude Code one prompt chained an experiment analyzer agent, an experiment readout agent and a Google Doc creator agent; the full workflow was not yet in the free repo, and the deck export was still rough.
  • Validate against past ground truth and fix the system on errors. Shane says the human is accountable for AI results: he backtests on past analyses and puts the Python and SQL into Notion beside the results. With, say, 300 past experiments as ground truth, he suggests Karpathy's "auto research" loop, which repeatedly scores the system, analyzes its errors and rebuilds its skills and agents. The presenter would make area or metric owners accountable for the skills' context, and review junior analysts' output until 95–99% of reviews pass. On a mistake, both say to ask Claude why it erred and what in the system must change.
All Things FinancialGeology is geopolitical...it's not just where the geology is, but who controls access. 3-21-2026
  • The event is narrow and the consequence is not: China halted all tungsten exports to the United States. An industry chief executive's assessment quoted is unequivocal — without the metal, production of Patriot and THAAD missiles comes to a grinding halt. Tungsten is already up 500%, and the United States does not appear on the global producer chart at all, not even at the bottom.
  • The investment comparison is made through the framework rather than through the multiples, which is the useful part. Almonty at roughly $4.2B and an all-time high, positioned to supply 40% of non-Chinese tungsten by 2027 from the Sangdong mine in South Korea plus European assets — an operating company moving toward production, with execution certainty already in the price. Against a $57M Canadian exploration-stage name on the identical thesis. Same chokepoint, two entirely different risk profiles, and he is explicit that conviction in the thesis does not transfer automatically to conviction in a vehicle.
  • The question he actually asks is the framework's own: which of these can America secure and control? And he answers it by looking at how allies have just been treated — THAAD launchers pulled out of South Korea overnight and sent to Israel, prompting Seoul to float negotiating with North Korea; Japan's leader publicly embarrassed, with street protests urging Tokyo to concede nothing. Against that, betting on a $4B asset sitting in South Korea rather than a small producer in Canada looks different. He also notes the Japan rare earth agreement covered exploration of ore rather than refining, and offers Australia as the cautionary case: a general's 2013 paper warned the country held about 23 days of LNG cover routed through Singapore from the Middle East — and Australia has just run out of gas.
Dr. Jon KrohnThe K-Curve: How AI Will Change Human Potential (with Zack Kass)
  • Technology is splitting young people into a K-curve of over- and underperformers. Kass says Gen Z appears to be the first generation in many that will "die dumber on average" than its predecessor, yet it will have nearly a standard deviation higher occurrence of genius, with the developing world trending up. He cites a US high-schooler, one of the fastest women in the world, who he says taught herself on YouTube.
  • Agency, not wealth or pedigree, now decides which arm you join. In Kass's view parents' money, where you grew up and which college you attend matter less and less. The tools that let some do nothing let others reach advantages they would never otherwise have had.
  • Gen Z's decline predates AI and should not be blamed on it. Kass dates it to screen addiction from 2012, made pronounced during COVID, and to adults ceasing to make children uncomfortable, citing Jonathan Haidt's The Coddling of the American Mind. He calls for schools to teach the why and how rather than the what, citing Waldorf, Montessori, Alpha School and Success Academy's accountability as models.
Professor G MarketsDEEP DIVE: The Economics Behind Falling Birth Rates
  • This post includes paid content that is not available publicly. See the original source.
Professor G MarketsTrump Triggers Economic Chaos as War Costs Skyrocket
  • This post includes paid content that is not available publicly. See the original source.
GeoHussarA brief explainer on how simple but effective the petrodollar #saudiarabia #petrodollar #economy
  • The petrodollar is an informal pricing pact, not a currency. OPEC agreed to price oil in US dollars and recycle proceeds into US Treasuries, a deal he traces to the US leaving the gold standard in 1971 and the dollar losing 75% of its purchasing power against gold within three years.
  • The 1973 Yom Kippur War forced the actual bargain. After the US backed Israel against Egypt and Syria, Saudi Arabia embargoed oil markets, tipping the US into stagflation; Washington then offered Saudi Arabia US weaponry in exchange for OPEC pricing oil exclusively in dollars.
  • The system is a closed loop that reinforces dollar demand. US firms get paid by Saudi Arabia for extraction technology, US banks lend those dollars to emerging markets to buy Saudi oil, and OPEC parks the resulting revenue in US Treasuries — a cycle he says holds only as long as the dollar remains the world's dominant currency.
Loss DogCollege Costs: Why Education Pricing Is Broken #shorts #studentloans #collegedebt #wearelossdog
  • College tuition should be priced by a degree's payoff, not charged flat. One host argues tuition has risen fourfold over four decades under a one-price-fits-all model, and that humanities and tech degrees alike should be priced like concert or game tickets, varying with the opportunity each creates; the other host begins to take the counter position before the clip cuts off.
Professor G MarketsIs AI Killing Advertising? & Scott’s Best Financial Decision
  • This post includes paid content that is not available publicly. See the original source.
All Things FinancialBuy when there is blood in the street but make sure you have staunched your wounds 3-20-2026
  • A four-phase 330-day stress model with numbers attached to each phase rather than directional language. Crude up $40–60 in the first thirty days with very large crude carrier insurance halted; sustained $130–160 through phase two as Cape routing adds roughly $46 a barrel; a paper-physical split in phase three with physical up 15 and futures down 25 for a 40% divergence; and a return to $90–110 by year end, driven by demand destruction — which he pauses to define, since many listeners have never seen prices high enough to stop people buying.
  • The financial-infrastructure warnings are what he treats as the real risk, and the model agrees. Silver's paper-physical gap moving from $17 to $22 in a single day. Letter of credit issuance halting, with a projected $60 billion funding gap in trade finance. The model's own conclusion is the important line: energy is the triggering domain but is self-limiting, because by day 90 the market has replaced and rerouted at permanently higher cost — whereas the paper-to-physical dislocation and trade finance collapse are systemic market-structure failures requiring six to twelve months to repair.
  • The consumer pass-through numbers make the abstraction concrete. US gasoline toward $5.80 with California and Nebraska at $7.20–7.80; airline tickets up 35–55% with an estimated quarter of flights permanently cancelled; motor fuel CPI up 68% year over year; electricity up 18–22%; edible oils up 30–45%; food CPI up 18% with eggs up 45% and protein 28–35%, and a surge in food assistance enrollment. Internationally: urea up 60% as India halts exports, wheat and rice spiking 35%, forty million people in food insecurity, shipping rates up more than 900%, and $2.4 trillion of cargo stranded at Jebel Ali.