The Canada trade deficit tracks oil prices, not the USMCA. Responding to a creator, "the Older Millennial", who blames USMCA for the deficit's rise under Biden, he argues the deficit rose throughout Trump's term, dropped only because of COVID, then spiked as oil prices tripled under the 2020 OPEC deal Trump brokered in April 2020 with MBS and Putin.
SPR releases curbed the deficit; Keystone XL would have widened it. He says the deficit would have been much higher without releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and that Keystone XL existed to raise the price of Canadian oil, so opening it would have widened the gap further.
Billionaires profit from crashes because they buy cheap. He closes by arguing billionaires don't care if ordinary people lose everything, and will burn the market down when it doesn't deliver bargains fast enough.
The claim that the US lost energy independence under Biden is false. Answering a clip in which a guest says the US was energy independent under Trump and no longer is, he defines independence as producing more total energy than is consumed: a surplus of 1 quadrillion BTUs when Trump left office against 9 quadrillion BTUs at the end of 2023, which he calls nine times more independent.
US output and exports are at record levels. He states the US produced more oil in 2023 than any country in history and expects that record to be broken again in 2024, and that it is the largest natural gas producer in history and the world's largest exporter of both natural gas and refined petroleum products.
The outlet demanded sources from commenters but not from its guest. He criticizes the channel for broadcasting the guest's claim unchallenged while asking viewers who disputed it to cite sources, and describes his own role, including with a news organization he says he is about to join, as fighting misinformation.
The US was energy independent under Trump, and a critic conceded it. Steve Rattner said on MSNBC the US was never energy independent under Trump; after Stephanie Ruhle tagged Rattner in his rebuttal on X, Rattner said days later on Morning Joe the US had been energy independent for five years. He cites the Institute for Energy Research and the EIA showing energy independence in 2019.
He claims a track record of getting outlets to correct themselves. He says he has been getting publications to change headlines and commentators to change on-air statements for about 3 years, work viewers do not see, and teases a new partnership to be announced within days.
The STOCK Act enriches Congress instead of curbing insider trading. He says the bipartisan law Obama signed on January 24, 2012 bars members from trading on inside information and requires disclosure within 30 days for personal trades or 45 days via an adviser, and argues lawmakers knew from the start it would make them richer.
Fast public disclosure lets followers pump lawmakers' picks. He says sites like Capitol Trades post trades as soon as they're disclosed and supporters pile in, inflating the price, and cites many members beating the S&P 500 ETF's nearly 25% gain in 2023, getting worse each year; he illustrates with a hypothetical Marjorie Taylor Greene Boeing purchase.
This short only announces the premiere of his YouTube show. The show, "That's Not a Thing", covering energy, politics and "things that aren't a thing", premieres at 2:00 pm Central that day, with him hosting and Jill moderating; he says it will run daily at 2:00 and asks viewers to follow the channel.
Saudi output alone says nothing; OPEC produces as one bloc. He answers a critic who pointed to record Saudi production in 2021–22 by citing OPEC-wide output: about 37 million barrels a day under Trump against 34 under Biden. He says he never claimed Saudi Arabia stopped pumping, only that OPEC cut production.
Saudi gains in 2022 offset outages elsewhere in the cartel. He cites Nigeria's oil production falling nearly 12% in 2022, along with declines in Iraq and Egypt, so Saudi Arabia picked up the slack without OPEC as a whole producing more. Stabilizing supply and prices when unstable members lose output is, he argues, the point of a cartel.
Saudi production charts track the OPEC 2020 cuts and restorations. He points to a big drop and a price spike, then a recovery in output as the OPEC 2020 deal wound down, and fresh cuts once it ended. He accuses the critic of dishonesty, since the same data was on the site the critic used.
Trans Mountain shows Keystone XL would have raised prices, not lowered them. A news clip reports oil now flowing on the Trans Mountain expansion from Alberta to the BC coast, nearly tripling flow to 890,000 barrels a day and opening "lucrative" global markets for Western Canada Select, which has sold at a steep discount. He reads this as proof that both pipelines exist to reach more buyers and lift the price of Canadian crude.
He fights trolls because those videos reach the most people. He says troll takedowns get his highest views and engagement, which serves his aim of countering energy misinformation. He describes himself as the only person doing this from inside the energy industry.
His Canadian LNG count included planned projects, not just started ones. He had said seven LNG projects were underway, planned or about to start; a commenter objected that seven had not started; he says his original wording covered planned projects too. He shows a Canadian government list of seven LNG projects plus an infrastructure project, and argues the critic preferred tribal approval to checking the facts.
The touted US–Japan Alaska energy venture is not a government deal. He says the Alaska LNG project was green-lit under the Biden administration and is a $44 billion development between private companies, in the works for years. He reads Trump's announcement of a joint venture with Japan, and his claim that Biden refused to sell Japan LNG, as taking credit for it.
The project monetizes North Slope gas that is now reinjected. Gas produced alongside oil at Prudhoe Bay is pumped back underground because it cannot reach market. The plan is an 800-plus-mile pipeline to the Kenai Peninsula carrying about 3.5 billion cubic feet a day, with an LNG export terminal and a carbon capture plant. He supports it, citing wasted resources and revenue for Alaskans.
The terminal developer, not Washington, holds the Asian buyer contracts. The company building the terminal has contracts with buyers in Asia, possibly but not necessarily Japan. He argues politicians count on the public not knowing such details.
The Alaska LNG project would finally monetize gas that's already being produced and wasted. He explains that North Slope wells at Prudhoe Bay produce natural gas with no takeaway capacity, so it is currently reinjected underground; a roughly 800-810-mile pipeline to a Kenai Peninsula export terminal would carry about 3.5 billion cubic feet per day to market instead.
He favors the project's structure because it pairs carbon capture with export and protects in-state supply first. The proposal pairs a carbon-capture system with the LNG terminal to offset emissions, and requires that Alaskans' own industry and supply needs be fully met before any gas can leave the state.
The project is a $40-plus-billion proposal aimed at Japan that has not yet broken ground. He notes it uses a gas pipeline rather than an oil pipeline, avoiding oil-spill risk, and that Alaska residents would share in the project's revenue, though he says he's convinced the effort will ultimately not go forward.
The critic's chart showed OPEC exports, not production. He argues exports do not move global prices; production does. On his production chart OPEC held at 37 (million barrels a day) in 2016, 2017 and 2018, so it did not cut when Trump took office, and its 35 in 2019 reflects the crash Trump pushed for. He attributes the 2014–2016 export slump to US output doubling under Obama while Chinese demand weakened.
The 2018 increase exceeded the 1.2 million barrels a day cited. The critic quoted minutes of OPEC's 174th meeting on June 22, 2018. He points to a meeting the next day where Russia added 600,000 barrels a day, taking the total to 1.8 million, and to conformity levels of 152% and 147%, which he reads as members overproducing their quotas.
The price collapse shows the real increase was larger. Because OPEC's own figures cannot be trusted, he infers volume from price: oil fell from well over $70 a barrel to about $28.91. He argues that a fall of that size makes his 2 million barrels a day figure conservative.
Trump's OPEC flood hurt the US energy sector. He says Trump got foreign producers to flood the market about a year after the largest oil crash in history, while US companies were still working off debt from it, damaging employment and the sector. He adds that Trump tried the same thing on his third day in office this term, and denies any partisan motive of his own.
Bob's "oil was down" screenshot was an overnight blip. It was taken at 12:27 a.m. during after-hours trading and showed a 20-cent (0.27%) drop. He explains that a red daily bar is measured from that day's open; oil opened well above the previous close, so it was "down for the day" while still higher than the day before.
Oil was not $80 when Trump took office. He says the price on inauguration day was $76.98 a barrel, against the $80 Bob keeps repeating. He calls it "disturbing" that Bob made a video crediting Trump over a screenshotted 20-cent move.
Canada's refining capacity is no worse off than America's. He is answering a claim that Canada's roughly 20 refineries against more than 120 in the US leave it dependent. Canada has nearly 1.8 million barrels a day of refining capacity against consumption of a little over 2 million barrels a day; he says it needs about 400,000 barrels a day more, while the US needs a couple of million.
Canada's refining gap is only for bitumen. He says Canada refines its other crudes readily. It sends bitumen to the US, but could use its other oil instead, so in his view it does not really need to.
The cross-border oil trade is the same owners trading with themselves. He argues that Canadian producers own large stakes in the US refineries that take their crude, and buy the products back when they flow east on Line 9. He reads the US-versus-Canada tariff argument as billionaires moving their own product for tax advantage, not two opposed countries.
What Happened This Morning? #news #truth #breakingnews #gasprices #gas #oil #trump
The tariff reprieves exposed how oversold the tariffs were. He notes Canada and Mexico both received reprieves from tariffs that commentators on the right had spent a week or two promoting as worth a trillion dollars a year to the economy, and asks why something that essential was suddenly dropped.
OPEC+ refusing to lower prices may explain the reversal. He points out that OPEC+ said that morning it would not act to bring oil prices down, just before the deals with Mexico and Canada were struck; the connection is his insinuation rather than anything he documents.
Made In America Doesn’t Protect You Fron Tariffs #truth #breakingnews #news #trump #gasprices #oil
Assembly in America does not shield a vehicle from tariffs. Responding to the new tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, he says more than half the parts in a Ford F-150 come from those three countries, so its price will rise even though it is built in the US.
Legacy American brands rank low on domestic parts content. He says Tesla ranks first for US-made parts, while Ford and General Motors vehicles are not in the top 10, and most American-assembled vehicles are not either.
The wealthy have no reason to swap income tax for tariffs. Answering a clip claiming that replacing the income tax with tariffs would make the economy explode beyond the Reagan years, he argues the rich already pay little or no income tax but buy a great deal, so tariffs and higher sales taxes would cost them more. He concludes they will not pass such a change.
He declines to identify as Republican or Democrat. Asked 10 to 20 times a day which party he belongs to, he answers with a list of things he is "not burdened" by — inherited beliefs, living as people did a century ago, others' opinions of him, unconditional family forgiveness — and says he has "no pearls to clutch". The piece contains no energy or market content.
Americans taunting Canadians over the tariff war reflects weakness, not strength. He argues they pick on Canada because they see it as weak, not Mexico, whose people he says could easily absorb the hardship. The same people would fold over 50 cents more a gallon for gas or a dollar more for eggs.
Comfort since the Depression has made most Americans soft. He judges Canadians likely stronger because they lack American arrogance. In his reading, Trump uses national power in the tariff fight because he cannot compete with other leaders intellectually.
He will openly enjoy ill-informed people suffering the tariffs' consequences. He answers a commenter who criticized his character, saying such people were told repeatedly how this works and refused to believe it.
The market, not Trump or buyers, sets Canada's oil price. Trump said he would decide on oil tariffs based on whether the US gets a "fair price", which he says shows Trump does not understand commodity markets. At a market price of $60.27 a barrel, a 25% tariff adds about $15; Canadian sellers still receive the market price and US buyers pay around $75.
Tariffed Canadian crude means less gasoline and higher pump prices. He argues US refiners will still buy Canadian oil, since it remains cheaper than the alternatives even with the tariff, but less of it. Because gasoline demand is inelastic, he expects them to cut output and draw down inventories to avoid running at a loss.
Canadian producers would cut output rather than accept lower prices. He rejects the idea that unsold Canadian crude would pile up and fall further in price. He says Canadian break-even prices are high, so producers would trim production to hold prices up, just as refiners would.
He doubts the tariffs will actually happen. He reasons that Trump was still undecided on Thursday night about a Saturday start. He says that if it goes ahead it will "blow up in his face", and he wants to see how higher gas prices get blamed on Biden.
South Carolina's gas price drop came from the snowstorm, not Trump. A South Carolina woman credited Trump with local gas falling 20 cents a gallon, from $2.79 to $2.59. He points to the record snowstorm that shut schools and offices across the South that week, which cut demand. The national average was $3.12 a gallon, up from $3.02 a month earlier, and the state average was $2.81.
Regional gasoline inventories jumped above their five-year average. Inventories rose 2.6 million barrels in the latest week, more than 100 million gallons. South Carolina gets its gasoline almost entirely from the Colonial and Plantation pipelines from the south, and he shows stocks there moving from below the five-year average to well inside its upper range.
He expects prices to rise again with warm weather. He forecasts sunny, above-average temperatures over the next two weeks, which he says drive fuel demand and prices. He challenges her to repeat the video then, and says Trump has done nothing to lower gas prices.
This is Devastating #breakingnews #truth #news #reeses
He hates Reese's Peanut Butter Cups. That one line is the only spoken statement; the rest of the captions are song lyrics, and the piece has no energy, market or political content.
The Constitution and The Reality of Too Much Freedom
The Founders were deeply divided, not united in purpose. He recounts that 55 delegates came to Philadelphia, roughly three-quarters of those elected, and about a quarter of them left before the end, so only about half of those elected signed. He cites the Bill of Rights being left out of the first two drafts, Jefferson writing to Madison from Paris, Elbridge Gerry's seven speeches against the document in one day, and Luther Martin walking out.
The greatest threat to freedom is too much of it. He draws this from the states behaving like independent countries under the Articles of Confederation. He applies it to today: the wealthy enjoy too much freedom because they are not held accountable, which in his view makes them the biggest threat to everyone else's freedoms.
"Drill, baby, drill" contradicts Trump begging OPEC for oil. Responding to the White House opening press credentials to content creators, he floats applying and lists questions he would ask, starting with why Trump asks OPEC to produce more if US drilling is the policy. He asks viewers to say in the comments whether he should apply.
The US is not in an energy emergency. He would ask the administration to define one, given that the US is the top producer of oil, natural gas and nuclear energy and the top LNG exporter. He adds that it is second in wind, top five in solar, and second in total energy output behind China, which has four times the population.
Trump's first-term OPEC deal allegedly traded away the Khashoggi murder. He would ask whether Trump agreed to forget the killing in exchange for more OPEC oil. He says that extra supply put many US oil and gas companies out of business and cost tens of thousands of workers their jobs.
Halving gas prices would wreck the US oil industry. He says cutting gas prices in half within six months would need oil at $20 a barrel, against break-evens of $50 to $60 a barrel. He would also ask why Trump said he did not care if that put companies, and so workers, out of business.
Trump's claim to have filled the Strategic Petroleum Reserve lacks specifics. He would ask when it happened and how much the reserve held when Trump started and finished. He would also ask whether Trump thinks renaming the Gulf of Mexico gets around the drilling ban, and why Trump himself banned drilling in many of the same places.
Cold weather has erased this winter's heating oil price advantage. A viewer reported his heating oil price jumped. He shows that inventories ran higher than last year through the summer, when they sat at or below the bottom of the five-year average, so this winter started with lower prices. A cold winter since then has pushed prices back to last year's level. He expects the next EIA update to show a big draw below the five-year average.
He does not expect $5 heating oil, but advises buying now. He is confident but will not promise, since forecasters keep missing polar vortexes and Florida got 8 inches of snow. February is historically the coldest month; with a slightly warmer spell now, he says ordering after the next polar-vortex forecast will cost more. He sees nothing in the market making prices run away, just a cold winter.
Heating oil prices are local, so national averages can mislead. The figures he shows are US averages, which vary significantly between the New England, Central Atlantic and Lower Atlantic regions. What a buyer pays depends on the number of local suppliers, their inventory and local demand, data he says he does not have.
OPEC Already Signaling They Won’t Lower Prices (I’ll Explain Why)
OPEC will not raise output to meet Trump's request. He cites a report in which anonymous delegates said they see no reason to change current policy and gave no sign they would backstop sanctions on Iran, Venezuela or Russia. He reads Trump's request, framed as a way to end the Russia-Ukraine war, as an attempt to bankrupt Russia, which is itself in OPEC+ and influential over the group.
The 2018 Iran waivers taught OPEC not to backstop US sanctions. He says Trump promised Saudi Arabia sanctions on Iran, OPEC raised production by 2 million barrels a day, and Trump then granted Iran waivers, crashing the global oil market.
The COVID-era Saudi-Russia "price war" was a joint attack on US producers. He argues that Saudi Arabia and Russia, close allies, flooded the market together during the pandemic, and that this, not COVID itself, drove the crash and negative oil prices. In his reading the aim was to force Trump to negotiate, and he says nearly every expert, Dan Yergin included, got it wrong.
Trump's resulting OPEC+ deal was the worst ever made. He describes it as a two-year, 10% production cut that gave the US $5 gas, made Saudi Aramco the most profitable company in history and delivered record profits to Gazprom. He says industry leaders understand this but stay quiet because they shared the profits, and that Biden and Trump alike are out of their depth with OPEC.
Trump's only leverage over OPEC+ is handing Ukraine to Russia. He says this is Trump's only move to get Saudi Arabia and Russia to act. He stops short of predicting it, saying only not to assume Trump won't do it.
Will The New Tarriffs On Columbia Impact Our Gas Prices? #breakingnews #news #gas #gasprices #trump
Tariffs on Colombian crude add a modest refiner cost. Colombia supplies roughly 4% of US oil imports, about 250,000 barrels a day, mostly to the Gulf Coast and some to California. He puts the cost to those refiners at roughly $5 million a day at the initial 25% tariff and $10 million a day if it rises to 50% after one week.
He expects the barrels to be rerouted through Mexico. With ample US inventory, he thinks refiners will wait before seeking other supply, and predicts that if the dispute drags on Colombia will sell to Mexico, a close ally and fellow Pacific Alliance founder, which resells to the US marked up a couple of dollars a barrel. He sees no large effect on US gasoline or global oil prices.
Falling well recoveries suggest the Permian is peaking. The Permian supplies about 47% of US oil. He shows estimated ultimate recovery (EUR), the oil a well is expected to produce over its life, falling about 36% between 2021 and 2023 on type curves. On a basin-wide average it fell from a little over 425,000 barrels a well in 2021 to just above 250,000.
Lower recoveries are pushing Permian break-evens sharply higher. He shows break-even prices rising from $45 a barrel in 2021 to $60 in 2022 and projects $83 if the EUR decline continues, which would mean far fewer wells drilled. He reads the basin's wave of consolidation as operators' hedge against falling EURs: size and well count.
Wells are packed too tightly and are stealing each other's oil. Operators are spacing horizontals 300 to 400 feet apart. His own 2018–2019 work put optimal spacing at roughly 1,500 feet, and a 2021 Wolfcamp study he cites found about 1,600 feet; closer spacing means one well draws reserves from its neighbour.
A Permian peak would decline far faster than Prudhoe Bay's. Prudhoe Bay peaked at 1.7 million barrels a day and declined over many years. He argues that if the reserves are comparable, the Permian at 6 million barrels a day would fall much more steeply. He stresses this is not a sure thing, and that even if the 36% is overstated and the real decline is 25%, it is still alarming.
All US output growth has come from the Permian alone. He says the rise from 8 to 13 million barrels a day is entirely Permian, with the Anadarko, Haynesville and Bakken declining despite new drilling. He does not expect a near-term catastrophe, but says the EIA's projection of flat US output through 2050 requires new production outside the Permian.
A viewer's objection that Russia isn't in OPEC is wrong. An oil and gas worker said they stopped trusting him when he said Russia was in OPEC. He says seven seconds of searching would have settled it, and that workers who disagree for political reasons will not stop him advocating for them.
Trump's 2018 OPEC deal crashed the US oil sector. He says Trump used the Khashoggi murder as leverage: he would clear MBS and impose no sanctions on Saudi Arabia if it raised output, with Iran sanctions to offset the extra barrels. Trump then granted Iran waivers. The roughly 90-day increase caused the 2018 crash; US oil and gas bankruptcies rose 50%, tens of thousands lost jobs, and 35% of drilling rigs went idle.
He expects OPEC to use this opportunity to decimate US producers. He says OPEC quickly restored output in 2018 once it saw what Trump had done, while Trump kept demanding more. With a president who said "I don't give a damn" if oil companies go bankrupt, he argues nothing protects the US industry from whatever OPEC chooses to do.
Trump Negotiating With OPEC, You Should Be Worried
Trump's cheap-gas target would cost about half a million jobs. He says Trump wants national average gas at $1.50 to $1.60 a gallon, which needs oil around $25 a barrel. He puts that at a conservative 150,000 oil and gas job losses; with 3.8 supporting jobs outside the industry for each one, he estimates roughly half a million in all, in the first 90 days.
Sustained low prices would close US refineries again. He says the US lost about a million barrels a day of refining capacity the last time Trump was president and has not regained it all, and he assumes a similar loss. How long it lasts, he argues, is up to Saudi Arabia and Russia, who run OPEC and want back the market share the US took over the past decade.
When OPEC+ then cuts, US output could fall 3 million barrels a day. He predicts a rig count below 150, under COVID levels and too few to hold production, so US oil output drops by about 3 million barrels a day within a year. Losing associated gas from oil wells would send US natural gas prices soaring and raise utility bills; he notes he is in natural gas and would profit.
The end state is $150 oil and $6–$7 gas. He forecasts oil at $140 to $150 a barrel with reduced refining capacity, putting national average gas at $6 to $7 a gallon. He projects about $10 in California, $9–$10 in Oregon and Washington, $8–$9 in Pennsylvania and about $9 in Hawaii and Alaska, with inflation beyond 2022 levels.
His objection is ceding US energy control to Russia and Saudi Arabia. He says he would make a fortune from this scenario, so his opposition is not self-interest. He expects Trump to blame Democrats, as he says Trump did when his OPEC 2020 deal produced $5 gas under Biden.
ANWR has no meaningful per-well break-even, only project economics. Answering a viewer, he uses the Willow project in the National Petroleum Reserve as a guide: about $36 million a well, assuming all 250 planned wells are drilled, and far more per well if only half are. Drilling and completing a well in West Texas or New Mexico costs $6 to $8 million, perhaps $9 million.
Entering ANWR means a roughly $10 billion commitment before finding oil. He says operators would need roads, bridges, facilities and pads holding about 50 wells each. They might drill 10 to 20 test wells and spend a couple of billion dollars before finding anything; Prudhoe Bay took about a dozen wells before an economic strike.
Proven reserves made Willow viable; ANWR's are unknown. He says Willow's reserves are 100% proven, which is why its operator committed the money, while no one knows what lies under ANWR. "You don't spend 10 billion unless you know it's there," he argues, which is why nobody is going.
Trump asking OPEC for more oil is why US companies won't drill. He notes Trump did this on his third day in office, as he says he predicted many times. He argues companies do not trust a president who would outsource energy to unfriendly countries, citing Trump saying he doesn't "give a damn" if oil companies drill themselves out of business.
Oil workers should prepare for OPEC eventually caving to Trump. He expects OPEC to refuse the first few times, but says that if this administration is like the last, it will eventually give in. He tells industry workers who voted for Trump against his October warning to save every dollar and prepare for long-term unemployment, for themselves or their families.
No drilling sites exist in ANWR because nobody wants to drill. An activist is travelling to film planned drilling sites with GPS coordinates and CGI. He says there are no such coordinates, calls ANWR a political football, and notes the most recent lease sale drew not a single bid for a single acre.
Nobody knows where ANWR's oil is, or whether it exists. He says the only data is 1980s seismic, which he calls junk that no operator would use to pick a site. He also says the source rock behind Prudhoe Bay's production does not extend from the coastal plain into ANWR.
Any future interest would centre on land bordering the northernmost section. He says the area he calls Section 102, technically excluded from ANWR, is where operators would look first. He stresses he does not expect drilling there either, and has no objection to the trip.
The order lets Washington force energy projects through, aimed at California. He reads the national energy emergency order as invoking federal eminent domain and, if necessary, the Defense Production Act, which he says could force companies to build pipelines, refineries or wells. He reads its references to the West Coast and to "dangerous state and local policies" as a message to Gavin Newsom.
The emergency is used to bypass environmental law. He says the order claims exceptions to the Clean Water Act, the Endangered Species Act, the Rivers and Harbors Act, and the Marine Protection, Research and Sanctuaries Act. A less alarming provision makes E15 fuel available year-round and nationwide.
The order's definition of energy deliberately leaves out wind and solar. It lists crude oil, natural gas, lease condensates, natural gas liquids, refined products, uranium, coal, biofuels, geothermal heat, flowing water and critical minerals. He says the omission is intentional.
The order sets no goals or targets to end the emergency. He notes agency heads are told to produce an unspecified plan within 30 days, and to report back even without one. He finds no production figures, no definition of when the emergency ends, and nothing about "drill, baby, drill".
Mike Johnson caught lying about meeting with Joe Biden #news #truth #breakingnews #gas #gasprices
Johnson's account of Biden's executive order fails on dates. Speaker Mike Johnson is quoted saying his first meeting with Biden scared him because Biden did not know what was in his own executive order. He sets out that the first meeting was on October 26, 2023, while the order in question was signed on January 26, 2024, three months later, and argues this proves Johnson was lying.
The claim about Iranian exports under Trump is only half right. A clip says Iran was down to 100,000 barrels a day of exports when Trump left office and is now near 1.7 million. He agrees on the current 1.7 million but says the Trump-era low was about 400,000.
US gasoline prices, not who is president, set sanctions enforcement. Sanctions have stood since the Obama administration, and he argues enforcement tightens when US gas prices are low because Americans will not pay at the pump to punish Iran. He reads the history this way: Obama halved exports to force the nuclear deal, exports recovered as a reward, stayed high in Trump's first two years, then fell once the 2018 oil crash allowed enforcement.
Presidential Immunity and The TikTok Ban #news #truth #breakingnews #trump #tiktok
Presidential immunity could be what keeps TikTok from being banned. He asks what would stop a president, held by the Supreme Court to have full immunity for official acts, from simply declining to enforce the ban, and who could sue him. He speculates that TikTok users who feared that immunity would not mind the president using it this way, so long as they kept the app.
The Govt. Can’t Do Anything! #news #truth #gas #gasprices #breakingnews #lol
People who say government does nothing rely on it all day. In a satirical monologue he walks through a day touched by regulated power, municipal water, the FCC, NASA satellites, the USDA, the FDA, NHTSA, transportation departments, EPA fuel standards, the Federal Reserve, the Postal Service, public schools, building codes, police and DARPA's internet, ending with a Facebook post that government can't do anything right.
I Just Can’t #news #truth #gas #gasprices #breakingnews #china
The US jails more people than China because China executes more. Answering commenters he calls defenders of the Chinese government, he concedes the US imprisons more people but argues China executes as many in a day as the US does in a year, often for minor crimes, and points to Amnesty International on China's death penalty. The piece has no energy content.
His October call for higher natural gas prices has played out. He replays his October forecast that oil and gasoline would be cheaper in 2025 but natural gas would face upward pressure. He gives natural gas at about $2.30 when he made it and roughly $4.10 now (the captions render it as "$41").
Flat production against rising demand and exports is drawing inventories. Low prices led production to dip and then flatten while demand kept climbing, and new LNG export terminals are sending more gas abroad, lowering inventories and raising prices. A cold winter in producing regions is also freezing wells, cutting output just as consumption rises.
Why Energy Independence Is Increasing #news #truth #gas #gasprices #breakingnews #biden #trump
US energy surplus grows because production rises while consumption stays flat. Showing a production chart going back to about 1950, he says output from oil, gas, wind and solar keeps rising, while consumption flattened about 25 years ago and is slightly lower now than 20 years ago.
Efficiency matters as much as production for energy independence. He credits appliance efficiency, using a modern fridge against a 1960s one: over the last 25 years the US added 40 million people, 40 million cars and 20 million homes — roughly a California — yet energy consumption has held steady.
Renaming the Gulf of Mexico does not undo offshore drilling bans. A social media creator claimed Trump was renaming it to get around the drilling ban Biden had issued three days earlier. He says bans attach to named lease divisions and boundaries that a new name does not change. The banned division has been off-limits for 30 to 40 years, Trump himself banned it, and Biden's order rests on the same law Trump used; existing producing areas are not banned.
Cheaper gas does not bring cheaper groceries. After the late-2018 crash he says Trump engineered, low gas prices in 2019 came with higher food inflation every month than in 2018; in 2014, at the start of the biggest oil crash, food prices rose faster than in 2013. He argues higher fuel prices raise food prices, but lower ones never reverse them, since grocery companies keep the savings; only an economic collapse lowers grocery prices.
Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Lease Sale #news #truth #biden #trump #gas #gasprices
The ANWR lease sale drew no bids at all. Not one company bid on any tract of the roughly 400,000 acres offered, days after Trump spoke of extensive drilling there under his administration; he reads this as a sign it will not happen. He mocks the Alaska development authority's move to blame Biden for costs, noting leases ran about $20 an acre.
Reserves are irrelevant unless producing them is profitable. He argues it does not matter how much oil lies in ANWR or Greenland: if it cannot be produced, brought to market and sold at a profit, it stays in the ground, so politicians and pundits should stop citing remote reserves.
Critics of Biden's offshore ban ignore Trump's similar one. Answering a clip calling Biden's new offshore drilling ban sabotage, he notes Trump also banned drilling in many of the same waters, with a ban that did not start until July 1, 2022, and says the clip nearly repeats a statement from Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt.
The ban is climate virtue signaling with no effect on output. It covers the East Coast, which has had no lease sale in over 40 years, eastern Florida and the Pacific Northwest, not the Gulf where production happens. California has had a federal leasing ban since 1984 yet still drills on existing leases, and companies hold over 24 million acres of unworked leases.
He expects Trump to use the ban as an excuse. He predicts no impact on oil prices, gas prices or the climate, and reads the move as political theater that lets Trump blame Biden if he cannot bring down gas prices.
Biden's LNG pause only froze permits for new facilities. He says it stopped no current exports and no export terminals already under construction, and that exports skyrocketed under Biden. The administration imposed it under pressure from climate activists, pending a study of the climate impact of expanding LNG exports.
The study found US LNG displaces coal now but renewables later. He says the study pleased neither the fossil fuel industry nor climate activists. It found US LNG has so far reduced coal burning abroad, but projects that additional exports will displace more renewables than coal globally, which he agrees with.
The study's household cost estimate is trivially small. It put the cost of unconstrained exports at over $100 a year per household by 2050, a little over $8 a month. He calls that a huge miss when utility bills have already risen by more than that in four years, by thousands of dollars a year in some places.
Ratepayers pay twice for "cheap" renewables. He says utilities building wind, solar and transmission get subsidies more than 10 times what fossil fuels receive, then seek rate increases from regulators. Renewables are cheap for the builder, he argues, because customers pay through both taxes and bills.
He expects Trump to lift the pause, with effects years away. The comment period runs into the Trump administration, making a petition to Biden pointless. Because the affected terminals are not yet built and take years to complete, he expects any export impact only in the third or fourth year of Trump's term.
How Politicians Play The Media, Their Donors, and Constituents Like A Harp.
Biden's "permanent drilling ban" makes Trump's lease ban permanent. News reports framed it as Biden blocking Trump. He says it covers the same federal waters Trump banned for 10 years, and bans new leases in certain places, not drilling, chiefly places visible from billionaires' coastal mansions.
Offshore bans are donor theatre with no effect on output or climate. He argues Biden and Obama issued theirs so groups such as Earthjustice and the Sierra Club could claim victory and raise money, and Trump did the same for wealthy donors who don't want to see platforms. Partisans then argue on social media while nothing changes.
Existing leases keep producing long after a ban. He says California has had a state ban off its coast since the 1960s and a federal one since 1984, yet drilling continues because holders keep decades-old leases indefinitely; they simply cannot get new ones.