Many social media feuds are staged for growth and monetization. He says he has been approached about four times by creators proposing a fake online beef and refused each time; he names no one but says the bigger and more aspirational an account, the likelier it has been asked or taken part.
Social media will drift toward scripted content as reality TV did. He expects coordinated, scripted conflict between creators to become more prevalent over time, and says being asked to join one is a quick way to lose his respect.
Falling oil prices cut US natural gas supply. He says a little over 25% of US natural gas output is associated gas from oil wells, so it falls with oil production; historically that mattered little, but he argues it now does because US gas inventories have been tightening and will keep tightening.
LNG export growth is what keeps domestic inventories tight. He puts US exports at over 11 billion cubic feet a day, with export capacity at record levels and on track to more than double by 2028 and triple sometime after. Because gas is priced locally, he says even today's low export prices are about twice domestic ones, so companies will export all they can.
Lower crude will shrink US oil output sharply this year. He expects marginal, barely economical old wells, of which he says there are thousands, to shut first, then rig counts to fall below what decline rates require. His forecast: if oil reaches $50 a barrel, US production falls by about 1 million barrels a day by year-end, driving gas prices up drastically.
Higher utility bills will outweigh any savings on gasoline. He cites natural gas demand growing about 4% this year, which he calls huge, alongside falling supply and doubling exports. He predicts a gas crunch and much higher utility bills, saying Americans are already downsizing homes over bills and that saving 50 cents a gallon on gas is no reason for excitement.
Secondary sanctions on Iranian oil escalate the China trade war. He reports the administration's announcement that any country or person buying Iranian oil or petrochemicals faces immediate secondary sanctions and a bar on US business; China buys the vast majority, and it came hours after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's warning to China on X. Oil rose modestly after heavy overnight losses.
The sanctions give Washington no leverage over Beijing. He argues existing tariffs have already all but ended US-China trade, so being cut off from US business means little to China, which he expects to keep buying Iranian oil; the US has already played its hand.
He suspects the Iran threat is an oil-price manipulation. His reading: a tanking economy has pushed oil down, which defeats "drill baby drill"; an attack on Iran would send oil north of $100 a barrel and spur drilling, but would also end any promise of lower gas prices and compound the economic damage.
Striking Iran would likely start the largest war in our lifetimes. He sees no scenario in which Iran does not retaliate in many places across the Middle East, turning it into a broad conflict.