GeoHussar
The Spanish dollar lasted longer than most currencies
- The Spanish dollar, not the Dutch guilder, was history's most widely traded currency, even without formal reserve status. He says Spain's global trading ports let the coin circulate almost anywhere from roughly 1497–1500 onward, while the guilder's "reserve" reputation rested mainly on the Bank of Amsterdam's dominance within Europe.
- He argues the Spanish dollar outlasted the British pound and Dutch guilder as circulating money by nearly 400 years. It remained legal tender in the US until 1857 and kept trading in parts of Latin America and China afterward, even as Spain's naval and military power had long since collapsed.
- He attributes Spain's long decline to the Inquisition's expulsion of its Jewish and Muslim population, calling it a bigger blunder than the 1588 Armada defeat. He argues the resulting loss of the country's most educated and wealthy people, forced into conversion, exile, or death, cost Spain generations of scientific and industrial progress that its New World gold and silver wealth could have funded instead.
Syria losing Aleppo is disastrous for them
- Losing Aleppo is nearly a death blow for Assad. It is Syria's largest city, about 2 million people, and its economic hub; its full recapture in 2016 had ended most hope of defeating Assad. The new assault worked, the host says, because every rebel faction agreed to stop fighting each other and aim at one enemy.
- Assad's backers are too overstretched to save him. The host cites Russian losses of over 700,000 troops in Ukraine and Iran's proxies being decimated by the IDF. A fall would cost Iran its training ground against Israel and cost Russia Tartus, its only Mediterranean port, on top of the humiliation of its client being pushed back.
- Damascus is exposed and outside powers may be converging on Assad. Israeli officials said the regime would pay for aiding Hezbollah, and the host expects more Israeli incursions; Turkish-backed factions joined the offensive. The host speculates, explicitly unconfirmed, that Turkey and Israel may be cooperating to sever the Russia–Iran nexus.
- Any successor to Assad is a net win, despite HTS's ideology. The host acknowledges Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's fundamentalist leanings but cites reports it has grown more pragmatic; any post-Assad regime will be unfriendly to Iran and Russia. It is win-win if it reunites Syria with Kurdish autonomy, and the host predicts a chance of regime change in Russia, Iran and Syria under Trump.
TikTok Live 10/15/2024
synopsis
In this solo TikTok question-and-answer live, held shortly after the 2024 election, the host ends where the evening's questions keep returning: Trump's announced agenda is largely unworkable and, if carried out, inflationary; immigrants are an asset America depends on; and Hamas's October 7 attack has handed Israel, now unrestrained by Biden, licence to clear Gaza. Despite all this, the host maintains America remains the best country in the world for an immigrant to start from nothing.
Platform and crypto. The host opens by recounting TikTok cutting creator funding without explanation, then restoring it, and pushes viewers to Patreon and YouTube. On crypto, the host refuses to tip meme coins or a Bitcoin top, discloses an average Bitcoin purchase price of about $24,000–25,000 with nothing yet sold near $90,000, and says the US government has no need to buy Bitcoin when it already holds tens of billions in seized coins.
The Electoral College. Following a response video to a large creator, the host defends the Electoral College as protection against mob rule and foreign influence campaigns, rebuts a viewer's math with the ten-largest-states simulation, and notes states' partisanship changes across generations.
Personal finance and housing. Asked how to reach financial security, the host describes saving four to five months' rent by walking to work and eating the cheapest food, then automatically investing paychecks in appreciating assets. On housing, the host speculates that boomers downsizing could produce a glut, and says private equity owns perhaps 1% of homes.
Trump's plans. Recounting a podcast appearance that day, the host calls the plans unrealistic and hopes they are posturing, since even moneyed interests would lose if all were enacted. The host details the missile-shield supply chain and the farm-labour math of deportation, and dismisses talk of invading Venezuela, whose oil is plentiful but poor quality.
Immigration and America. In a long exchange, the host argues immigrants work harder, commit less crime and educate their children, and that childless Americans are worth less to the government than immigrant families. Challenged by viewers, the host concedes US flaws — about 2 million people imprisoned, private prisons, an insurance-lobby-driven health system, widening inequality — but blames voters who turn out only for presidential races.
Gaza. The host argues pro-Palestinian protests that celebrated Hamas pushed wealthy Jewish donors the host knows to Trump, and asks whether 40,000 dead, possibly 100,000 or more, is "worth it". Pressed by viewers, the host traces the conflict back to the 1947 partition, calls Netanyahu a butcher who funded Hamas, labels Israel's treatment of non-Jews apartheid, and insists on a two-state solution. The host calls Tulsi Gabbard's nomination a joke.
Closing questions. The host sees Russia–Ukraine as a stalemate, says ending it will not lower prices if tariffs arrive, backs nuclear power as the cleanest energy, and lists China's compounding crises.
- The Electoral College guards against an easily swayed popular vote. The host argues foreign disinformation targets the masses, who once accepted slavery and denied women the vote. By the host's own simulation, a 51–49 split in the ten largest states would outweigh the other 40; state leanings shift too, as New York, Texas and California all voted for Reagan in 1984.
- Trump's all-American missile shield and mass deportations are unrealistic. The host says such a shield would need TSMC chips, from a lead of a decade or two, Dutch ASML lithography, and rare earths mostly from China. Deporting 10 million undocumented workers, including about 1 million of 2.5 million farm workers, would leave crops rotting and raise food prices; "big money" is already pricing in inflation.
- Undocumented immigrants are a net gain the government quietly values. The host argues they pay state and local taxes, spend locally, are 1.6 times likelier to start businesses, and have more children while the US birth rate is 1.67. If elites truly wanted them gone, the host says, they would fine employers a million dollars a day rather than close the border.
- Hamas's attack gave Israel carte blanche, the host argues. The host blames Hamas's October 7 assault for the deaths that followed and predicts that under Trump, Gaza may be cleared of Palestinians within four years. The host also calls Israel's treatment of non-Jews apartheid, saying West Bank Palestinians get water below the UN minimum of about 100 litres a day while settlements have pools.
- China's stimulus is too small for its stacked crises. The host cites $23 trillion of local-government debt against an $18 trillion economy, record youth unemployment, deflation, a shortage of women from the one-child policy, and little immigration. The host predicts India will eventually reach China's level, perhaps in 30–40 years.